The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud/Value Pick
Blake Snell (L) $9,000 Los Angeles Dodgers (-270) at Colorado Rockies
We have an extremely clear top play tonight in the Dodgers’ Blake Snell. He offers a rare combination of elite-level pitching and an excellent matchup, all while being priced at just $9,000. Of course, that reasonable price tag does come with some caveats.
The obvious one is that this game is in Coors Field. That’s a mixed bag, with the park factor a big detriment to pitchers, but the matchup with the Rockies being one of the best possible. That’s especially true for southpaws, with Colorado ranking 29th in wRC+ and striking out at a top-five rate against lefties. They’ve improved from the historically bad lineup they were last year and in the early part of 2026 to more garden-variety terrible, but it’s still a big upgrade to a pitcher’s chances.
The other caveat is that this is just the third start of the season for Snell. He returned from a 2025 injury in May, was injured/reinjured in his one start, and then returned again last week. He struck out ten Royals hitters in six innings of one-run ball, though, so he seems to be operating at full strength.
Vegas has the Rockies implied for just 4.1 runs, not a terrible total elsewhere but about as low as you’ll ever see at Coors, with the Dodgers as massive favorites. If Snell were $10,000+, this might be a tough decision, but at his current price tag, he’s a borderline lock. That comes with massive ownership, but he’s the clear leader in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projections. I can see the ownership-based case for fading him in MME play, but for tighter builds, don’t overthink it.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Nolan McLean (R) $9,800 New York Mets (-118) vs. San Diego Padres
McLean is a classic “pay up to be contrarian” choice today. He’s $800 more expensive than Snell but pretty clearly a step down in terms of his likeliest outcome, with slightly worse overall numbers and a noticeably tougher matchup against the Padres. His 28% strikeout rate and mid-threes ERA aren’t anything to be embarrassed about, and the roughly league-average Padres aren’t necessarily a team to avoid, but it’s not quite the elite spot Snell has. At much lower ownership, though, he’s an excellent tournament pivot who trails only Snell in median/ceiling projection.
Framber Valdez (L) $7,500 Detroit Tigers (-110) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The consistently inconsistent Valdez has a great spot tonight, taking on a Pirates team that strikes out at the third-highest rate against lefties and has a bottom-five wRC+. Valdez seems to alternate dominant performances with negative DraftKings scores, but the matchup makes the dominant performance more likely tonight. There’s some moderate weather risk in Pittsburgh, but it looks like the early storms should clear up shortly after the scheduled game time, and a delay probably helps keep Valdez’s ownership down, making him an elite tournament play at his price tag.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
As soon as I saw where the Dodgers were playing tonight, I knew what the top stack would be. Los Angeles has a 6.7-run implied total tonight at Coors Field, more than 1.5 runs higher than that of any other offense on the board.
Their primary stack is also priced at nearly $6,000 per hitter, led by the absurd $7,000 price tag on Shohei Ohtani. That makes rostering anything resembling this stack extremely difficult. With that said, Ohtani’s 18.77-point median projection is the highest I’ve ever seen for a position player and is higher than all but two pitchers (McLean and Snell) tonight.
My big concern would be the Dodgers pulling Ohtani early if this game gets out of hand, though it would be somewhat likely that he contributed to said blowout if we were to get there. Either way, to fit this stack, you essentially need two cheap pitchers and near-minimum-priced hitters at every other spot, which could make it at least somewhat contrarian.
I want some exposure to this build but prefer mixing in some down-lineup (read: cheaper) Dodgers bats instead.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Willson Contreras 1B ($4,700) Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Mitch Bratt)
Boston is a top-five team against left-handed pitching this season, and tonight they have a home matchup against Arizona’s Mitch Bratt, who has a 3.74 ERA but FIP/xFIP/SIERA marks all in the fives. That makes Boston a sneaky stack option today, with a solid 5.1-run total and much cheaper price tags than the Dodgers.
Of course, mini stacks built around their best lefty-mashers makes a lot of sense as well, which is where Contreras comes in. He’s long been an auto-play when facing lefties, and PlateIQ illustrates why:
Carter Jensen C ($4,500) Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics (Mason Barnett)
The Royals trail only the Dodgers for the best team total on the slate, with most of that coming down to the matchup. The Athletics’ Mason Barnett has a 6.16 ERA through 38 MLB innings, splitting time between starting and bullpen work. Some of that is due to the inhospitable home environment for the A’s, but his 4.80 xERA and 6.06 road ERA suggest he’s just outright bad.
Carter Jensen is a solid mix of value and upside as a rare leadoff-hitting catcher. His $4,500 price tag is reasonable relative to his double-digit median projection, and he’s the highest-rated non-Dodger in our tournament models tonight.
Byron Buxton OF ($5,200) Minnesota Twins vs. Atlanta Braves (Martin Perez)
Buxton is likely to be an extremely contrarian option tonight due to his price tag and position. The Dodgers have five outfield-eligible hitters who project better than Buxton, three of whom have cheaper price tags.
However, he draws a great matchup with Braves lefty Martin Perez, whose 2.96 ERA is hiding underlying numbers consistently in the mid-fours. Additionally, Buxton has historically smoked left-handed pitching. His OPS against southpaws this year is just .732, but he’s been in and out of the lineup with injuries. Across his career, that mark rises to .810.
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Pictured: Blake Snell
Photo Credit: Imagn
