The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
George Kirby (R) $8,800 Seattle Mariners (-145) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
There are a lot of pitchers to choose from on Friday’s 12-game slate, but it is light on stud pitchers. Zack Wheeler is the only pitcher priced above $10,000 on DraftKings, and he’ll have to navigate a brutal matchup vs. the Dodgers.
Instead, let’s save a bit of salary with Kirby. He’s not exactly a stud, but he’s been remarkably consistent since coming up to the majors in 2022. He owns a 3.54 ERA and 3.35 xERA so far this season, and he’s excelled at limiting the damage on balls in play. Kirby’s groundball rate puts him in the 92nd percentile, while his barrel rate ranks in the 75th. Add in an 87th percentile walk rate, and that’s a solid combination for keeping runs off the scoreboard.
Kirby is getting plenty of respect from the oddsmakers on Friday. He leads all pitchers with a 3.3 opponent implied run total, and no other starter is below 3.6. Kirby is also the third-largest favorite of the day, giving him the top Vegas data.
Strikeouts are the only area where Kirby has struggled this season, but there are reasons to believe in a bounce-back there as well. He struck out 9.79 batters per nine innings last season, and his Chase rate ranks in the 90th percentile. Kirby has punched out at least six batters in two of his past three starts, so he’s trending in the right direction.
Finally, Kirby gets a strong matchup vs. the Diamondbacks, who are merely 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. Not only that, but he’ll get to face them in Seattle, which has been the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball per Statcast Park Factors. He ultimately checks out as the best combination of value and upside at the position.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Carlos Rodon (L) $7,700 New York Yankees (-143) at Athletics
Rodon has made three starts for the Yankees this season, and his numbers don’t look overly impressive. He’s yet to record a win with a 4.15 ERA, and he’s handed out way too many free passes (7.62 BB/9).
However, Rodon has also done a lot of good on the bump. His K/9 sits at 11.77, and his hard-hit and groundball rates are elite. It results in a 2.96 xERA and a miniscule .156 expected batting average against, so Rodon still looks like an elite pitcher under the hood.
Rodon is coming off his best outing in his last start. He limited the Blue Jays to just three hits and one run across five innings, and he added seven strikeouts. He finished with 19.65 DraftKings points, good for a +6.63 Plus/Minus.
Rodon’s price tag remains the same for Friday’s matchup vs. the Athletics. That’s simply too cheap. The Athletics are 22nd in wRC+ vs. southpaws this season, and they have the fifth-worst strikeout rate. Pitching in their small home ballpark isn’t easy, but Rodon has the potential to be the best value of the day. He leads all starters in projected Plus/Minus.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Max Meyer (R) $9,800 Miami Marlins (-105) at New York Mets
The Mets remain an unmitigated disaster on offense. Despite a payroll that would rival the GDP of a small country, New York ranks 27th in runs per game. They’re 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, putting Meyer in a great position for success on Friday. He’s had a breakout campaign in 2026, posting a 2.52 ERA and 10.09 K/9 through his first 11 starts. He faced this same Mets’ lineup in his last outing, and he pitched seven innings of one-hit ball with eight strikeouts. He’s had at least 21.35 DraftKings points in four of his past five outings, so you can certainly go back to the well with him in this matchup.
Trevor Rogers (L) $6,000 Baltimore Orioles (-117) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Rogers was phenomenal for the Orioles last season, but he hasn’t looked like the same guy in 2026. He owns a 6.96 ERA across his nine outings, and his other numbers are down virtually across the board. However, Rogers has undoubtedly gotten a bit unlucky, with a .336 BABIP and just a 56.8% strand rate. He should be able to improve in those areas moving forward and move closer to his 4.53 xERA. That makes him an interesting buy-low candidate at $6,000 in a solid spot vs. the Blue Jays. They’re just 26th in wRC+ vs. southpaws this season.
Luis Severino (R) $6,400 Athletics (+118) vs. New York Yankees
Severino stands out as one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his salary comes with a 99% Bargain Rating. He’s also turned in back-to-back quality outings, including 10 strikeouts over seven innings in his last start. Facing the Yankees is never easy, but they do have a propensity for strikeouts: they have the sixth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season. It gives Severino a solid ceiling for tournaments at what should be reasonable ownership.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected Plus/Minus belongs to the Giants:
The battle for the top stack on Friday comes down to the Giants and the Yankees. Both teams are playing in elite offensive environments. The Giants will head to Coors Field, while the Yankees will play at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. They unsurprisingly have the top two implied team totals of the day.
However, the Giants have a slight edge in that department, checking in at 5.9 runs to the Yankees’ 5.3. Their lineup is also a bit more affordable, making them the top choice from a value standpoint.
The Giants will square off with Michael Lorenzen, who owns a paltry 7.21 ERA so far this season. That number spikes above 10.00 when pitching specifically at Coors Field, and he’s also allowed 1.93 homers per nine innings in that split. It is as good a matchup as it gets on paper, even for an offensively-challenged squad like the Giants.
The big question is, how should you approach their lineup? You could certainly go with a traditional 1 through 5 stack, but there are arguably better values a bit further down the lineup. Specifically, Bryce Eldridge stands out as the No. 7 hitter. He has elite raw power, and while he’s launched just one homer at the MLB level this season, it’s just a matter of time before they start flying out of the park. He ranks second on the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus per THE BAT X, trailing only teammate Willy Adames. Including him should make your Giants’ stacks a bit more unique, and it’s very helpful from a salary standpoint as well.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Trent Grisham, OF ($3,500) New York Yankees at Athletics (Luis Severino)
Grisham has not had nearly the same offensive season as he had last year for the Yankees, when he slugged a career-best 34 homers with a 129 wRC+. However, he’s heated up after a slow start to the year. He’s posted a 135 wRC+ in May, including eight doubles and three homers.
Grisham will be on the positive side of his splits Friday vs. Severino, and he’s expected to bat leadoff for an excellent Yankees’ lineup. He’s too cheap at $3,500, and he leads all batters in projected Plus/Minus using our blended projection set.
Spencer Torkelson, 1B ($2,900) Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (Brandon Eisert)
The White Sox will use a left-handed opener on Friday, which means Torkelson could get an at-bat in that split. That would be good news for his fantasy prospects, with Torkelson posting excellent marks against southpaws since the start of last season (via Plate IQ):
Once Eisert departs, Eric Fedde is expected to pitch the bulk of the innings for the White Sox. While he’s not a left-hander, he’s simply not a very good pitcher. He owns a 5.47 ERA and 2.19 HR/9 so far this season, so Torkelson will still have the potential to do damage in that matchup. Ultimately, he has much more upside than his $2,900 price tag suggests.
Trea Turner, SS ($4,400) Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers (Justin Wrobleski)
Turner has homered in back-to-back games, and he has the perfect skill set for fantasy purposes. He’s capable of going yard or stealing multiple bases in any game, which is why he’s been a top fantasy shortstop for going on a decade.
Turner will square off with Justin Wrobleski on Friday, who got off to a phenomenal start for the Dodgers this season. However, he’s come back to reality of late, allowing at least five runs in two of his past three starts. His xERA sits at just 4.09 for the year, so there could be more regression to follow.
Pictured: George Kirby
Photo Credit: Imagn
