The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Paul Skenes (R) $10,000 Pittsburgh Pirates (-170) vs. Chicago Cubs
Thursday is somewhat frustratingly split into two separate three-game slates, making it difficult to find multiple solid pitching options on either one. Fortunately for those of us playing the later slate, we’ve got Paul Skenes.
Skenes is having a slightly down year by his standards, with an ERA of 3.00 after staying below 2.00 his first two MLB seasons. He’s given up nine runs over his last two starts, and his strikeout rate is down to “just” 28%. Of course, for almost anyone else, that would be a career year, and that’s still worked out to 19.5 DraftKings points per game.
More importantly, his underlying numbers suggest that maybe he’s been a bit unlucky. His xERA is the lowest of his career, and his xFIP is virtually identical to where he finished last season. The dip in strikeouts might be a bit more real, though, as his swinging strike rate is down and his average fastball velocity is down a full mph.
In a tough matchup with a Cubs team that doesn’t strike out a ton and ranks sixth in wRC+ against righties, I’m not anticipating a huge game from Skenes. Of course, with just six pitchers to choose from, an average Skenes performance still might be the best score of the day. He leads the slate in median and ceiling projection while ranking second in Pts/Sal.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Nathan Eovaldi (R) $9,000 Texas Rangers (-150) vs. Houston Astros
The only pitcher with a better Pts/Sal projection than Skenes is Eovaldi, who has similar Vegas data but a salary $1,000 lower. That’s a pretty straightforward case for him being, at worst, a similar option to Skenes, particularly in a slightly better matchup.
Eovaldi’s performance this season is a bit trickier to dissect, though. His 23.8% strikeout rate is nothing special, but he’s getting swinging strikes on more than 15% of his pitches. Every other qualified pitcher with a 15% or higher swinging strike rate has a strikeout rate at least 5% higher, so he’s been unlucky in that regard.
On the other hand, he has a 3.65 ERA, but his xERA and FIP are both over 4.00. There’s a case that he probably “should” have a higher ERA, but if he were converting more strikeouts, those underlying numbers would also be better, since strikeouts are a major factor (especially in FIP).
All of that adds up to a pitcher I likely wouldn’t have much interest in on a larger slate, but with just six options, he’s at worst the second-best of the two. He and Skenes are both projecting for massive ownership, so it’s probably better to fade one of the two, but they’re fairly similar options to each other.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Spencer Arrigheti (R) $8,500 Houston Astros (+125) at Texas Rangers
One of the potential pivots from Skenes and Eovaldi is Arrighetti, who has averaged a slate-high 21.6 DK points per game. He’s also been incredibly lucky, with a 1.32 ERA and 4.75 xERA. Still, he has the softest matchup of the top three arms and is projecting only a few points lower with a cheaper salary and much less ownership. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement, but from a strategy standpoint, switching one of Skenes/Eovaldi for someone else and hoping to get lucky is probably the best option.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
Four of the six teams on the slate have totals between 4.1 and 4.6 runs, meaning it’s a wide-open slate for offense/stacks, but the best mark belongs to the Orioles. They’re implied for 4.6 runs, as they take on our favorite fade, Patrick Corbin ($7,000).
Corbin comes into the game with a very solid 3.86 ERA, but it seems pretty unsustainable. His SIERA is 4.41, and his xERA is on the wrong side of 5.00. He has very little ability to miss bats, with just an 8.8% swinging strike rate while allowing plenty of hard contact, and has been extremely lucky with a career-low 8.5% HR/FB ratio.
With this game in Baltimore, some home run regression is very likely, as Camden Yards boosts home runs 11% over the league average. The bad news is that Baltimore typically struggles against lefties, with their wRC+ dropping 18 points compared to matchups against right-handed pitching. Number-five hitter Coby Mayo ($3,100) actually has some of the best numbers on the team against southpaws, so swapping him into this stack would save some salary and help the overall platoon splits.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Yordan Alvarez OF ($5,900) Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi)
If you’re using my strategy of fading one of Eovalid/Skenes, it’s effectively mandatory to roster at least one hitter against the pitcher you leave out of your lineup. The obvious choice from Houston against Eovaldi is Alvarez. He’s their best hitter by a wide margin, averaging double-digit DraftKings points per game.
PlateIQ offers us another reason, that being Eovaldi’s splits against lefties:
The hard contact is especially notable for Alvarez, whose 20 home runs are one off the league lead coming into Thursday.
Michael Busch 1B ($3,800) Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (Paul Skenes)
inding an option to roster against Skenes is somewhat trickier on paper, although if he continues to pitch as he has the last few starts, we’ll have plenty of choices. My favorite when considering salary, though, is Busch.
He has a relatively low strikeout rate, which is important against Skenes. He also has the team’s best numbers against right-handed pitching, which is important on a team that typically does a bit better against lefties. With a sub-$4,000 salary, it’s a fairly low-stakes shot to take and would produce massive leverage over the chalky Skenes.
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Pictured: Nathan Eovaldi
Photo Credit: Imagn
