The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Parker Messick (L) $9,600 Cleveland Guardians (-125) at Texas Rangers
Messick has been extremely impressive in his first full season in the majors, and the young lefty is in a great spot to continue to deliver as his Guardians host the Rangers this weekend. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all pitchers on the slate in the FantasyLabs Projections, and he also has the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projection of the 24 probable starting pitchers.
The 25-year-old southpaw is 6-1 in his 12 starts, posting a 2.21 ERA, 3.05 FIP, and only a 1.07 WHIP. Messick only had 13 DraftKings points against the Red Sox in his last start in a no-decision, but before that, he earned at least 24 DraftKings points in three of four outings.
On the season, Messick is averaging 20.2 DraftKings points per game in his five road starts with a 1.91 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings.
He’s in a favorable spot going into Globe Life Field against the Rangers, who are only hitting .214 against lefties this season, the third-lowest mark in the majors. The Rangers have an 83 wRC+ in their team splits against lefties, meaning they are 17% below league average in run creation against lefties like Messick.
In that favorable matchup, Messick makes a solid pay-up play to consider Friday.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Roki Sasaki (R) $7,700 Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Dodgers and Angels meet this weekend in another edition of the Freeway Series, and Roki Sasaki has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers scheduled to take the mound this Friday. No other starting pitcher matches more Pro Trends than Sasaki, and he has the potential to continue his strong turnaround in this favorable spot at home.
The Dodgers are the heaviest favorite of the night on the Vegas dashboard, and Sasaki has the lowest opponents’ implied runs on the board. Sasaki has the fourth-highest strikeout prediction on the board, just behind Messick.
After an extremely rough start to the season, Sasaki has been much better over the last month. He has at least 10 DraftKings points in six straight starts and at least 15 DraftKings points in each of his last three. While his ERA is still 4.59 for the season, over his last three starts, he has a 2.08 ERA, 2.18 FIP, and an excellent 0.81 WHIP.
He faced the Angels on May 17 and had one of his best outings of the season, posting a season-high eight strikeouts and 31.4 DraftKings points. Sasaki looked solid against the Brewers and Phillies in his two starts since then, and he should be ready to roll as a great value play in this rematch with the Halos.
The Angels lead the majors with a 24.7% K% this season and have hit just .234 as a team. While they have been a little better lately, they still were almost just swept by the Rockies, so they don’t come in with much momentum as they try to take down their crosstown rivals.
Sasaki seems very underpriced given his performance against them a few weeks ago, and he has a very high ceiling Friday night at home.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Christian Scott (R) $7,600 New York Mets (-110) at San Diego Padres
Mets rookie Christian Scott has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on Friday night as he and the Mets visit pitcher-friendly Petco Park. With the Padres’ lineup scuffling, Scott has a good ceiling and his ownership looks like it will be low, setting him up as a good pivot play to consider for GPP builds.
Scott has not been able to work deep into games due to his higher pitch count, but he has pitched at least five innings in each of his last two starts. He is coming off a season-high 25 DraftKings points against the Marlins last week, when he allowed one run in five innings and racked up eight strikeouts.
Even without a ton of innings, Scott has at least five strikeouts in seven straight starts. He has 37 strikeouts over 29 innings in those six outings, with a 2.79 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He has issued multiple walks in five straight starts, so command continues to be an issue, which makes him higher risk. However, with so much strikeout upside, he makes a nice GPP play on Friday’s slate.
The Padres have been streaky on offense all season, and lately, they have been slumping as a team. Over the last two weeks, they have scored only 35 runs in 12 games with a 25.4% K% and a .197 team batting average. Some of their struggles have been due to matchups, but they have been scuffling enough to buy into Scott’s significant upside on this slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points, belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
The Brew Crew rolls into Denver this weekend, where the wind is forecast to be blowing out with temperatures in the 80s. Summer weather typically means plenty of runs at Coors Field. On Friday, the Brewers get a favorable matchup against Ryan Feltner ($5,500). Even though Feltner is a righty, both sides of this stack make sense since Feltner has allowed five homers in his six starts this year, and three of those homers were hit by righties. Righties are hitting .321 with a .428 wOBA, .286 ISO, 50% hard-hit rate, and 14.6% barrel rate.
Jackson Chourio is coming off a multi-homer game on Thursday and has gone 10-for-21 (.476) with two doubles, three homers, a .645 wOBA, a .524 ISO, and an impressive 50% barrel rate in his last six games. Chourio has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate according to the aggregate projections described below, just ahead of his teammate Brice Turang, setting the duo up to be a great 1-2 punch for your fantasy lineup.
Christian Yelich could actually slot ahead of Turang and Chourio in the Brewers’ lineup, and he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate after exceeding salary-based expectations in three of his last four games. William Contreras has been a reliable middle-of-the-order righty all season, while lefty Garrett Mitchell offers both power and speed upside as a slightly less expensive play.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Carter Jensen C ($3,500) Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (Zebby Matthews)
Carter Jensen has the highest Plus/Minus projection behind the plate on Friday night, and the young Royals backstop also typically hits at the top of his team’s batting order, which is unusual for a catcher.
Jensen went 1-for-6 with a double and 11 DraftKings points on Thursday against the Twins and has averaged 5.5 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 contests. He hit .300 in his 20 games last season in the majors, but this season, the 22-year-old has only hit .214. He has showcased much more power potential, though, with seven homers in his 58 games and a 40% hard-hit rate.
All seven of his homers have come against lefties, and five have come on the road, where he’ll face Matthews on Friday night. Matthews has allowed five homers and 12 runs in his four starts this season, and lefties have hit three of those homers with a .306 wOBA.
Jake McCarthy OF ($3,800) Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Brandon Sproat)
The Brewers aren’t the only team playing at Coors Field, and the hometown Rockies have been playing much better baseball lately. McCarthy has been a solid producer at the top of the batting order, and the lefty will likely be back in that premium lineup spot against Sproat and the Brewers on Friday.
McCarthy has nine multi-hit games in his last 18 contests, hitting .292 (21-for-72) with three doubles, a triple, and two home runs. He has also added three stolen bases during that stretch, giving him another way to contribute to your squad.
In his last 10 games, he’s averaging 10.2 DraftKings points per game, and he should be in a great spot against Sproat. Here’s how the Rockies’ lineup looks on PlateIQ, where you can see the potential value they provide at home.
Edwin Arroyo 2B ($2,000) Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (Kyle Leahy)
The Reds are giving 22-year-old Edwin Arroyo his first taste of the majors, and he brings a lot of potential value at the minimum salary of just $2,000.
He has only gone 1-for-8 with a single and six strikeouts in his three games since his promotion, but his minor-league track record shows the potential for much more as he adjusts to the majors.
Arroyo hit .323 in his 53 games in Triple-A with 11 homers, nine stolen bases, and a .412 wOBA. He only had a 16.8% K% in Triple-A, so as he settles in, he should be able to cut down on his strikeouts and start contributing. If he’s in the lineup again on Friday at the minimum salary, he’s a great way to stretch your salary cap space to fit a Brewers stack or other stars you want to build around.
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Pictured: Parker Messick
Photo Credit: Imagn
