The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob Misiorowski (R) $13,000 Milwaukee Brewers (-274) vs. Chicago Cubs
Even in this massive, 26-team player pool, Jacob Misiorowski stands out as a clear top stud to pay up for based on his recent dominant form. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor of all starting pitchers in play and matches the most Pro Trends. The Miz has the highest strikeout prediction on the slate, and he should be in a great spot to return good value even at his elevated price tag.
He and the Brewers are the heaviest favorites on the board this Friday as well, while their opponents, the Cubs, have the lowest implied run total on the slate. Misiorowski faced the Cubs in mid-May and earned 31.1 fantasy points in six innings by allowing no runs on three hits with eight strikeouts.
He gave up two runs in six innings in his most recent outing against the Braves and only had 19.9 DraftKings points with seven strikeouts. That’s not an awful total at all, but it was a step back after he racked up 30+ DraftKings points in 8 straight starts, averaging 36.9 DraftKings points per outing over that span. Before the Braves got to him a little bit in his last start, Misiorowski had his best start of the season, earning an impressive 58.6 DraftKings points by allowing just one hit while picking up 15 strikeouts on his way to a complete-game shutout.
Even after that sub-standard start, he has a 1.45 ERA, 1.66 FIP, and a 39.1% K% this season, piling up 138 strikeouts in his 93 innings.
The Cubs should present a good matchup for him to bounce back at home, where he is averaging 32 DraftKings points per start this season.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Taj Bradley (R) $7,600 Minnesota Twins (-166) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Twins are taking on the Rockies this weekend at Target Field in Minnesota. Taj Bradley has the highest Plus/Minus projections of all the starting pitchers on Friday’s slate and also matches the second-most Pro Trends behind only Misiorowski.
Bradley has had a strong first full season in Minnesota, going 6–3 in 14 starts with a 4.11 ERA, 4.28 FIP, and 84 strikeouts in 76 2/3 innings. He has averaged 16.6 DraftKings points per start this season and 18.3 DraftKings points per game in his five starts at home.
Bradley had a few rough outings early in June but has bounced back with back-to-back strong starts against the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, earning 17.4 DraftKings points and 16.2 DraftKings points in those two most recent outings.
In his last start, he earned his sixth win of the season and got plenty of run support before leaving with a 16–2 lead. He’ll hope for similar support against Tomoyuki Sugano ($5,800) and the Rockies on Friday, in a matchup where he should be able to put together another solid outing.
The Rockies’ offense has been a little bit better lately, but they still rank in the top 10 in the majors in K% and the bottom five in wRC+. Away from Coors Field, they have a 24.3% K% and a .314 team wOBA.
Bradley’s solid recent showings and good upside at home make him a good value option on Friday, especially if the Twins lineup can back him up like they did last time.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
David Sandlin (R) $5,700 Chicago White Sox (-125) vs. Kansas City Royals
The White Sox are recalling David Sandlin from Charlotte for Friday night’s start against the Royals. He’s high risk but brings lots of upside as well, with the potential to be an ultimate value play and unlock plenty of salary to stack big hitters across the rest of your roster.
Sandlin impressed in his MLB debut on May 27, working six innings against the Twins and allowing just one run on his way to earning 22.9 DraftKings points. He struggled in his next two outings, though, allowing eight runs to the Twins and three runs to the Phillies, earning only 3.7 DraftKings points total for those two outings.
He returned to Triple-A and worked 11 innings over two starts, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with nine strikeouts. He’ll return for another chance at the MLB rotation, and this matchup against the Royals could be a great spot for him to readjust and remain in the MLB going forward.
He’s risky for sure, but he has enough upside and potential to be a solid play in tournament formats. He has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all the starting pitchers on the board this Friday, behind only Bradley, and he could be the best value on the board if he steps up in this favorable matchup.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points, belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
The Twins are the top stack of the night as they host the Rockies at Target Field. They’ll go against Tomoyuki Sugano ($5,800), who has a 4.54 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the season. He has allowed 14 homers in his 79 1/3 innings, and lefties have been especially effective against him, with a .379 wOBA, .287 ISO, 16.5% barrel rate, and 10 homers against him this season.
The success of lefties against Sugano sets up perfectly for Kody Clemens and Trevor Larch to be solid outfield values, while Byron Buxton is on such a tear that he makes sense in any matchup. Buxton has averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game over his last 12 games and can be a pay-up play to build around as the anchor of this slate.
Switch-hitters Brooks Lee and Josh Bell are solid plays at the corner infield spots. Lee has 14 fantasy points in back-to-back games and has averaged 11.3 fantasy points over his last seven games. Bell is even cheaper and brings solid power potential after averaging 10.1 fantasy points over his last 10.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Klye Teel C ($3,000) Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Mitch Spence)
The White Sox are in another great spot to attack this Friday as they take on the Royals at Rate Field. Teel has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on the slate, and he comes at a bargain salary at a position without many options.
Teel has played two games since returning from an extended stay on the injured list. He initially suffered a right hamstring strain in the World Baseball Classic and then a right knee LCL sprain during his recovery. He looked great in Triple-A during his rehab assignment, posting a .387/.441/.613 triple-slash with two home runs in eight games.
He went 0-for-4 in his first game back but then went 1-for-3 with a walk and 9 DraftKings points on Wednesday. He is still extremely underpriced and brings lots of potential value on Friday.
Mitch Spence has only pitched eight innings this season, allowing 12 runs on 11 hits and six walks. Last year, he went 3–6 with a 5.10 ERA for the A’s, and he hasn’t fared much better this season for the Royals. Here’s what Teel and the White Sox look like against Spence in PlateIQ:
Wyatt Langford OF ($4,000) Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays (Patrick Corbin)
Langford is also a young player who battled injury early in the season but has been productive since returning. He has the third-highest Plus/Minus projections of all hitters on Friday and is in a good matchup against lefty Patrick Corbin.
Over his last eight games, Langford is 13-for-38 (.382) with five homers, two doubles, a stolen base, a .552 wOBA, and a .500 ISO. He has averaged 15.6 DraftKings points over his last eight games.
Corbin has been solid overall but has struggled lately, allowing multiple runs in four straight starts and not lasting any longer than five innings. Langford is a great option at just $4,000 with a high ceiling against Corbin.
Ronny Mauricio 3B/SS ($2,000) New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler)
Mauricio is at the minimum salary after rejoining the Mets on Thursday and going 1-for-5 with a double on his way to 5 DraftKings points. Even in a tough matchup against Wheeler, the 25-year-old has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at 3B and the third-highest at shortstop.
The Mets activated Mauricio from the injured list, where he has been with a fractured thumb. In his rehab, he went 7-for-19 (.368) with five RBI and two stolen bases. He could help fill in for Marcus Semien (hip) over the next few weeks and get playing time at 2B as well.
He has both power and speed upside with a high ceiling, especially for a player at only $2,000 with multiple positional eligibility. He only has one homer and no stolen bases this season, but last year, he had six homers and seven stolen bases in 19 games at Triple-A.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket promo code.
Pitured: Jacob Misiorowski
Photo Credit: Imagn
