UFC Baku DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Fiziev vs. Torres, More Saturday Fights

The UFC heads to Azerbaijan this weekend, with a 13-fight card headlined by native son Rafael Fiziev. Fiziev is looking to get back in the rankings after dropping four of his last five, as he takes on #13-ranked Manuel Torres in the main event.

We’ve got a special 9:00 a.m. ET start time for this one, so be sure to have your lineups ready to go.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in tournaments, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Rafael Fiziev ($8,200) vs. Manuel Torres ($8,000)

The UFC Baku main event would normally be an ideal “value play” option, with odds at roughly a pick ’em in a fight that’s -500 to end ITD. Both men have a path to massive upside – or a disappointing score – so there’s a strong case for both.

Torres has the more direct path to a massive score. Of his 17 pro wins, 16 have been ITD, including four in the UFC plus his appearance on the Contender Series. He had one submission victory in that span but is primarily a knockout artist, averaging over seven significant strikes per minute with massive power.

Against an aging – in fight years – Fiziev, who has been stopped twice in his last four fights and once this year, it’s easy to see Torres finding a power shot and putting away the hometown favorite early. It’s also easy to see the more technical Fiziev taking this fight over if he’s able to make it more than five minutes, since Torres hasn’t seen a second round since 2018.

Fiziev also has some sneaky grappling upside, landing four takedowns in his last win, which came over a fighter with a similar body type and style to Torres, Ignacio Bahamondes. A few takedowns and a later stoppage would also provide a huge score – but any win probably gets it done at $8,200.

I’m stacking this one in cash games since I have very little confidence in who the winner is, even though I don’t see a great floor for the loser. Some line movement to Torres will make him very popular in tournaments, so I’ll likely be overweight on Fiziev by default, but I’ll have one or the other in all of my lineups.

The Easy Chalk

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev ($9,500)

Anytime a fighter is favored to win in the first round, they’re going to project as a pretty clear top play. This week that’s Yakhyaev, who is -600 overall and -135 in Round 1 against Julius Walker ($6,700). Counting the Contender Series, Yakhyaev is 3–0 with three first-round finishes, two of which came in less than one minute.

He’s also displayed a diverse range of abilities in those wins. He has one knockout, one knockdown that led to a submission, and one submission following a pair of takedowns. At least on the offensive side, he seems to be a true five-tool player.

Walker has some athletic gifts but is still fairly limited from a skills standpoint, with a 1–2 record in the UFC. He was knocked out by Dustin Jacoby in the second round of their fight in February and seems to rely on takedowns to mask his limited striking defense.

That’s probably not an option against Yakhyaev, with the most relevant question being how quickly Yakhyaev can find a stoppage. I like enough underdogs on the slate that getting to Yakhyaev isn’t a problem, so I’ll have a ton of the obvious best options on the slate.

The Upside Plays

Assu Almabayev ($8,900)

Assu Almabayev is competing in one of the two fights on the card favored to go the distance, but that doesn’t mean he lacks upside. He’s taking on Charles Johnson ($7,300) in what seems to be a fairly binary fight, with Johnson the superior striker and Almabayev the stronger grappler.

He’s landed nine takedowns combined over his past two fights, with the most recent ending early in the third round via an Almabayev submission. Johnson has solid but not elite takedown defense at 69% but excels at getting back up when he is taken down. The last three fighters to get him to the mat all got less than a minute of ground control time out of the deal.

If Almabayev is insistent on grappling, that could lead to a double-digit takedown night for him, just like Cody Durden and Mohammed Mokaev recorded in their fights against Johnson. Almabayev could also gas out against the elite pressure and pace of Johnson or wilt under the superior power.

That makes him a risky option but one worth playing in tournaments, especially considering he’s likely to carry light ownership thanks to the poor stoppage odds in this fight.

Javier Reyes ($8,500)

The first bet I made this week was on Reyes, who has since seen the line move his way against Kaan Offli ($7,700). Reyes has a similar profile to Torres as a hyper-aggressive striker, with all of his UFC/Contender Series wins coming in the first round.

I believe he’ll be able to overwhelm Offli, who was finished with strikes on the Ultimate Fighter finale and was knocked down in his last win against Yizha. Offli was also outstruck by 20 and taken down three times in that fight but was somehow given the majority decision nod.

Reyes also has some sneaky grappling upside that I noticed when breaking down his Contender Series matchup. That could be relevant here against Offli, who hilariously has a 0% TD defense rate in the UFC across five opponent attempts.

Either way, by knockout or takedown, the upside is massive for “Blair.” He’ll be chalky, but likely worth it.

The Value Play

Bekzat Almakhan ($7,800)

My other early bet this week was on Almakhan, who has also seen some line movement his way, albeit not as much as Reyes. He’s competing in the other fight favored to go all three rounds, in his case against Jean Matsumoto ($8,400).

The combination of line movement his way as an underdog plus a fight favored to go all 15 minutes makes him a fairly classic value option. He’s also favored on the “finish only” moneyline at DraftKings, which means he holds most of the finishing equity in this fight.

He’s dropped two of the three opponents he’s faced in the UFC – one of those being Umar Nurmagomedov on short notice – while Matsumoto has gone to split decisions in his last three fights. The floor for Almakhan is likely a relatively close decision, while his ceiling includes him getting the finish.

That’s exactly what we’re looking for in a cash game option, since he’s highly unlikely to leave you with a bad score. I also have some interest in him in tournaments since I believe in his upside, and the stoppage odds in this fight mean he won’t be especially popular.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.

The Contrarian Choice

Andrey Pulayev ($7,400)

Sean Zerillo put me on to the idea of Pulayev on our latest UFC betting preview, pointing out that he’s a live underdog against Nursulton Ruziboev ($8,800) this weekend. While Pulayev is 1–2 in the UFC compared to Ruziboev’s 4–1, there are some stylistic edges that might help the underdog here.

Ruziboev is fairly one-dimensional, relying on his massive height and reach, 6’5″ and 76″, respectively, to land straight shots from a distance. Three of his four UFC wins have come via that exact gameplan, with the fourth a lackluster decision against Dustin Stoltzfus.

The problem with that plan this time is that Pulayev has an even more ridiculous 78.5″ reach and can tag Ruziboev from the outside before Ruziboev gets into range. He’s also the more dynamic striker, with a +0.7 significant strike rate and 111% combined striking accuracy and defense. Ruziboev is at -0.39, with a 94% combined rate.

Ruziboev can also grapple a bit, which is why he deserves to be favored here, but not by this much. At $7,400, any Pulayev win gets the job done, making him an interesting salary saver for tournaments.

The Swing Fights

Abus Magomedov ($8,300) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk ($7,900)

While the main event is probably the best true “swing fight” this weekend, the middleweight bout between Abus Magomedov and Michal Oleksiejczuk is a close second. It’s also effectively a pick ’em thanks to some line movement to the initial underdog, Oleksiejczuk, with -350 stoppage odds.

The uncertainty is how much the move to the “Fighting Nerds” camp has grown the game of Oleksiejczuk. After losing to team captain Caio Borralho in 2023, Oleksiejczuk began training with them in Brazil, eventually making the move there full time in 2025. That’s coincided with a three-fight winning streak with two first-round knockouts and a fight of the night bonus, plus some newfound grappling ability. He was always a talented striker but is 10–7 in the UFC with five submission losses.

Abus Magomedov is a tougher test of that ability than most of his past opponents, but he was unable to take Borralho down in their fight, a loss for Magomedov. Not that those skills are transferable, but they could have a gameplan for the Dagestan-born German figured out. Magomedov was knocked down in all three of his UFC losses, which bodes well for the powerful striker.

Or, Oleksiejczuk’s newfound grappling defense was simply a product of a weak strength of schedule, which got exploited this time around. That’s a distinct possibility as well and would obviously give Magomedov a big score. I want one or the other in all of my tournament lineups, with a lean towards Oleksiejczuk.

Interested in more action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket promo code.

Pictured: Rafael Fiziev
Photo Credit: Imagn