The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider ($10,000) Atlanta Braves (-180) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Strider stands out as head and shoulders above the rest of the pitchers on Friday’s main slate. Before suffering a season-ending elbow injury in 2024 – the second of his career – Strider established himself as one of the best young starters in the game. He broke out in 2022 with a 2.67 ERA and a ridiculous 13.81 K/9. The latter figure is basically unheard of for a starter, ranking as the fourth-best single-season mark in MLB history.
Strider hasn’t been the same dominant force this year, but he’s turned things around a bit after a shaky start. He’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA and 1.76 FIP over his past five outings, and he’s tallied 38 strikeouts in 30.0 innings.
The strikeout upside is what separates him from the rest of Friday’s starters. He currently leads the slate with a 7.92 K Prediction, and no other starter is above 5.2. That’s a massive gap. Strikeouts are obviously extremely important for fantasy production, and pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.25 (per the Trends tool).
Strider’s Vegas data isn’t quite as elite – 4.0 opponent implied run total, -180 moneyline odds – but it’s still among the best on the slate. He’s the second-largest favorite of the day, and he has the third-lowest opponent implied run total.
Add it all up, and he’s the clear top option at pitcher. If he continues to pitch like he has of late, $10,000 isn’t nearly expensive enough.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Sandy Alcantara ($7,100) Miami Marlins (+105) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Alcantara was expected to be the crown jewel of the trade deadline. The Marlins are in a perpetual state of rebuilding, and before getting injured in 2023, Alcantara was one of the best pitchers in the game. With two more years of club control on his contract, the Marlins were expected to receive a pretty penny for him.
Unfortunately, Alcantara has not looked like the same pitcher this season. His ERA currently sits at 6.98, and his advanced metrics aren’t much better. He still throws hard, ranking in the 91st percentile for average fastball velocity, but that hasn’t led to solid results from a batted-ball or strikeout perspective.
However, Alcantara has shown signs of life recently. He was rocked in his last outing, but that was in Arizona against a tough Diamondbacks’ lineup. Before that, he had pitched to a 2.74 ERA across his previous four outings.
Alcantara draws an interesting matchup Friday vs. the Brewers. Milwaukee was one of the best teams in baseball in June, but they’re coming off back-to-back losses to the Mets. Their offense cooled down in that series, and they’re merely 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handers for the year. Overall, it’s a solid matchup.
Alcantara is also going to provide solid length, which is far from a given for a cheap starter. He’s gone six innings in four of his past five starts, which helps make up for some of his strikeout deficiencies.
Alcantara is a slight dog, but his 4.2 opponent implied run total is tied for the fifth-lowest on the slate. Add in his pedigree, and he’s a viable value option at $7,100. He leads all pitchers in projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT X.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,800) Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) vs. Kansas City Royals
Rodriguez got off to a dreadful start this season, but his advanced metrics suggested he was unfortunate. Since returning from the IL, his luck has completely flipped. He’s pitched to a 1.98 ERA over his past five outings, and he’s averaged better than a strikeout per inning. Rodriguez doesn’t have as much strikeout upside as usual vs. the Royals, but it’s a great spot to continue keeping runs off the scoreboard. Their offense is dead last in wRC+ vs. southpaws, so it’s a phenomenal matchup.
Eric Lauer ($7,600) Toronto Blue Jays (-165) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Lauer has bounced between the Blue Jays’ rotation and bullpen this season, but he’s been effective whenever he’s been on the bump. He owns a 2.60 ERA, while he ranks in the 69th percentile for strikeout rate. Lauer has plenty of strikeout upside for Friday’s matchup vs. the Angels. They have the highest strikeout rate in the league in that split, and Lauer ranks tied for second on the slate in K Prediction. That’s not bad for a pitcher who costs just $7,600.
Kris Bubic ($9,800) Kansas City Royals (-105) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Bubic has been the best overall pitcher among Friday’s options. He owns a 2.25 ERA, and he combines solid strikeout and batted-ball metrics. He’s also been remarkably consistent, allowing more than two earned runs in just four of his 16 starts. Bubic will have his work cut out for him vs. the Diamondbacks, but he’s simply a better pitcher than his $9,800 salary suggests.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
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The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using THE BAT X belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Another day, another Dodgers stack. The Dodgers’ offense is absolutely loaded, and they unsurprisingly lead the league in both runs and homers per game. They have three former MVPs in their lineup, and the rest of their lineup can do damage, too. Guys like Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez are among the best hitters in the league at their respective positions, while Andy Pages is having a breakout campaign.
The Dodgers are in a great position to keep rolling on Friday. They’re taking on Lance McCullers Jr., who has struggled mightily after returning to the mound in 2025. He’s still capable of generating strikeouts, but when opposing batters make contact, they’re doing serious damage. He’s pitched to a 6.61 ERA while allowing 1.93 homers per nine innings.
That could be a recipe for disaster vs. the Dodgers. While Hernandez and Mookie Betts haven’t exactly crushed right-handers this season, the top of their projected lineup is still extremely dangerous in that split (via Plate IQ):
The Dodgers are currently implied for 5.5 runs in this matchup, which ranks second on the main slate. Only the White Sox are implied for more, and they have the benefit of playing at Coors Field.
The only downside of this stack is the price tag. It will run you more than $25k, which makes them extremely tough to pair with Strider. It’s not impossible – especially if you punt SP2 – but it’s easier said than done. There are also some cheaper, intriguing teams to consider, which could keep ownership on the Dodgers a bit lower than usual.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Miguel Vargas, 1B ($4,100) Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies (Antonio Senzatela)
The White Sox are almost never a team worth considering, but the matchup in Coors Field changes things. It’s the most hitter-friendly venue in baseball, giving Chicago a massive boost in value. They’re currently implied for 5.9 runs, and most of their batters still check in with really affordable price tags.
That includes Vargas. He cooled off in June after a solid May, but his numbers for the year are solid vs. righties: .322 wOBA, .182 ISO. He leads all batters in the blended projection set in projected Plus/Minus, and he has the third-highest median projection in THE BAT X. Vargas ultimately trails only Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna, which is elite company for a $4,100 player.
Willy Adames, SS ($3,500) San Francisco Giants at Athletics (JP Sears)
With all due respect to the Dodgers, the Giants stand out as my favorite offense to target on Friday. They’re going to be playing in Sutter Health Park vs. the Athletics, which has been a home run paradise so far this season. The weather forecast also calls for 10-mile-per-hour winds blowing out, so there could be even more homers than usual.
That’s particularly true with Sears on the bump. He has been unable to keep the ball in the stadium when pitching at home this season, allowing a ridiculous 3.34 homers per nine innings. That number has been even higher against righties.
That makes Adames an awesome buy-low target at $3,500. He has not had a good first year with the Giants, but he’s someone who has hit for plenty of power throughout his career.
Salvador Perez, C/1B ($3,100) Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks (Eduardo Rodriguez)
Like Adames, Perez is another player with a solid track record of production who has struggled in 2025. However, Perez’s underlying metrics are still very solid. He ranks in the 85th percentile for barrel rate, and he’s in the 80th percentile for expected batting average and expected slugging percentage. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits Friday vs. Rodriguez, and he provides solid upside at a trick position to fill in fantasy.
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Pictured: Spencer Strider
Photo Credit: Getty Images
