The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease (R) $11,500 Toronto Blue Jays (-167) vs. Seattle Mariners
Cease has been excellent in his first season with the Blue Jays, even though the year has been disappointing for the team as a whole so far. On Friday, Cease has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of the 24 scheduled starting pitchers on the board. He comes at a hefty salary but matches the most Pro Trends on the board and has the highest strikeout prediction as well.
The 30-year-old righty is only 8-5 since Toronto’s offense has struggled so much, but he has a tremendous 2.37 ERA and 2.39 FIP while racking up 209 strikeouts in 144 1/3 innings. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in nine straight starts since the start of July, with just a 1.48 ERA over that stretch. He has at least seven strikeouts in 18 straight outings dating back to the beginning of May.
Cease is coming off back-to-back starts against the Yankees, and in those two outings he earned 27.2 and 28.8 DraftKings points. In his last nine starts, he averaged 30.0 DraftKings points per outing, making him an elite pay-up option if you have the salary available.
This will be his second start of the season against Seattle. He had 35.4 DraftKings points against them with seven shutout innings and nine strikeouts in early July. The Mariners rank in the top 10 in strikeout rate in the MLB this season and over the last 30 days. Over the last 30 days, they’ve also scored the third-fewest runs in the league with just a .217 team batting average.
Cease has been consistently excellent, and his strikeout upside makes him a great place to spend up for a top arm on Friday night.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jacob Lopez (L) $6,200 Athletics (+119) vs. Baltimore Orioles
After a rough start to the season and some time in the bullpen, Lopez has been a very solid starter for the A’s over the last several weeks, and he has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all starting pitchers this Friday, even though he’ll be facing the Orioles at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.
Over his eight starts since rejoining the rotation, Lopez has a 2.23 ERA and 3.18 FIP. He had to stretch back out, but he has worked 5+ innings in six straight outings, allowing two earned runs or fewer in each appearance.
Lopez posted at least 17 DraftKings points in each of those six outings, averaging 20.8 DraftKings points per game over that span. He had his best showing during that run in his most recent start last Saturday against the Angels. He worked six innings and gave up just one run on three hits while matching his season high with nine strikeouts.
Even though he has pitched well at Sutter Health Park, Lopez is still looking for his first home win. He has greatly improved his control, though, which is what was holding him back early in the year.
He’ll be facing a lefty-heavy Orioles lineup that ranks in the top five in the majors for K% this season. As a team, the O’s have a .238 batting average against lefties this season, but they are coming in with some momentum after scoring 26 runs in three games in St. Louis to start the week.
Even though the matchup and environment are less than ideal, Lopez is so affordable that he makes sense as a great bargain SP to consider. He has plenty of momentum and has established himself as one of the A’s starting pitchers who can be a big part of their rotation going forward. Sliding him into your starting spot as a value play makes lots of sense this Friday.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Andrew Painter (R) $6,500 Philadelphia Phillies (-140) at Los Angeles Angels
The Phillies’ search for a fifth starter led them back to where they started the season, with Painter in the final spot of the rotation. The top prospect struggled early in the year, so his season-long numbers are disappointing, but he has shown great upside since rejoining the rotation five starts ago.
He’s still high-risk since his results have been uneven, but when he’s dialed in, he brings a very high ceiling. That boom-or-bust upside makes him a good fit for tournament lineups even though he’s too unreliable to be a good cash-game fit.
In his last start, Painter posted 30.8 DraftKings points with seven strong innings against St. Louis. He struck out eight and issued no walks while allowing one run on three hits. He earned 17.9 DraftKings points in his first start back in the rotation on July 31 and also had a successful outing with 21 DraftKings points against the Cardinals on August 10. However, in the middle of all those solid outings, he did have a clunker in Minnesota, earning -0.8 DraftKings points by allowing five runs on six hits in five innings.
He bounced back well from that start in his most recent outing last Saturday and will look to build on that success this Friday. He gets a great matchup against the Angels, who rank second in the MLB in K% this season and have the fourth-worst team wRC+.
In what should be a good spot on the road, Painter makes sense at this salary and brings a very high ceiling for his limited investment. He hasn’t been as consistent as Lopez, but with a better environment in L.A., he is definitely a strong alternative to consider if you can afford to take on the added risk.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by points projection, belongs to the Atlanta Braves Guardians:
The Braves are at home for their weekend series against the Rockies, but they still are the top offense to build around even without the boost of Coors Field. The Rockies will start righty Tomoyuki Sugano ($6,000), who is an especially strong matchup for lefties, in the series opener. Sugano is 12-7 in his first year with the Rockies but has a 4.96 ERA, which could be much higher according to his 6.99 xERA and 5.36 FIP. He has allowed 26 homers in his 23 starts, and lefties have hit 19 of those long balls, with a .388 wOBA, .590 SLG, and a 14.4% barrel rate. Righties have an 11.3% barrel rate against him as well, so he has allowed plenty of hard contact on both sides of this potential stack.
Matt Olson had double-digit points in the first two games of the Braves’ sweep of the Dodgers before coming up empty on Thursday. He has nine homers, a .355 ISO, and a .384 wOBA over his last 25 games and is a great pay-up anchor for the stack. Drake Baldwin hit his 22nd homer of the season as the only run in Thursday’s 1-0 win over L.A., and he has gone 7-for-16 in his last four games as he finds his rhythm at the plate once again.
While both of those lefties are great plays, don’t forget about switch-hitting Ozzie Albies, who will hit from the left side against Sugano and comes at a solid price. Michael Harris II is another lefty around the same price who comes with good upside after averaging 8.8 DraftKings points over his last nine games. The only righty in the top stack is Ronald Acuna Jr., who always brings a very high ceiling with dual-threat potential in any matchup.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Lars Nootbaar OF ($3,300) Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (Blade Tidwell)
Nootbaar has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all hitters on the entire slate in the aggregate projections, and the Diamondbacks’ trade-deadline acquisition is projected to hit leadoff against the Giants on Friday night.
The lefty has gone 6-for-28 (.214) in his last nine games, with a double, a home run, and a stolen base helping him average 5.3 DraftKings points per game. He picked up a hit in the series opener on Thursday and will be on the strong side of his splits against Tidwell. He’s hitting .233 with a .310 wOBA against righties this season, but he struggles and sometimes sits against lefties.
Tidwell, on the other hand, has allowed lefties to hit .274 with a .355 wOBA against him on the season. With those splits in his favor and a premium lineup spot expected, Nootbaar brings great value potential if you need to save some salary in the outfield.
Three of the top six hitters in Projected Plus/Minus come from the Diamondbacks’ lineup this Friday, and here’s how they look in our PlateIQ tool:
Coby Mayo 1B/3B ($4,000) Baltimore Orioles at Athletics (Jacob Lopez)
Even though I like Lopez’s upside, Mayo is a great value play to consider at $4,000 at Sutter Health Park. Mayo has the highest Plus/Minus projection at 3B and the second-highest at 1B, making him a good fit at either spot depending on the rest of your lineup construction.
Mayo was a highly rated prospect but took a while to adjust to the majors. The righty still has a low batting average but brings some good power potential and seems to be finally finding his groove. Over his last nine games, he went 8-for-32 (.250), but five of those eight hits went for extra bases, including three home runs. He averaged 9.2 DraftKings points per game during that stretch and had 18 DraftKings points on Thursday in the series finale in St. Louis, with his 18th homer of the year.
Against lefties like Lopez, Mayo is hitting .307 with a .463 wOBA and a 23.8% barrel rate. In comparison, he’s hitting only .160 against righties with a .225 wOBA and a 5.5% barrel rate. Since he’ll be on the strong side of those splits with such a good hitting environment, Mayo makes sense as a solid corner bat with power to build around this Friday.
Connor Norby 2B ($2,700) Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves (Grant Holmes)
Norby has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all players under $3,000 this Friday night and can offer serious salary relief while also bringing some solid production of his own. Both he and Mayo were top prospects for the O’s before Norby was traded to the Marlins and then the Rockies.
Norby has hit safely in 12 straight games coming into this matchup with Grant Holmes, going 14-for-39 (.359) over that span with five doubles, a pair of home runs, and a stolen base. He brings a little pop and can add a sneaky stolen base as well.
His solid contact tool makes him lower risk than many of the cheap hitters, and he usually chips in some kind of production, especially lately. Over his 12-game hitting streak, he has averaged 9.4 DraftKings points per game, and he posted an impressive 31 DraftKings points on Wednesday, showing that he brings a high ceiling as well at this bargain salary.
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Pictured: Dylan Cease
Photo Credit: Imagn
