The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a three-game main slate starting at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Stud
One pitcher stands out above the rest on DraftKings on today’s small slate:
- Aaron Nola (R) $9,600, PHI @ SD
Nola has gotten off to a rough start this season, pitching to a 4.18 ERA and 4.31 FIP, but he’s started to turn things around. He’s coming off a strong performance in his last outing, striking out eight batters while allowing just one run over seven innings, and he’s pitched to a 2.50 ERA over his past seven starts. He’s also increased his K/9 to 10.30 this season, which would represent a new career-high.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also encouraging. He’s limited batters to an average distance of just 193 feet, which represents a decrease of three feet when compared to his 12-month average. He’s excelled at keeping the ball on the ground, with opposing batters posting a ground ball rate of 58%.
Nola is in a wonderful spot against the Padres. Their projected lineup has posted a .288 wOBA and 27.3% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 3.7 runs is the lowest mark on the slate. Nola also owns a K Prediction of 7.3, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions, Vegas data, and recent ground ball rates have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.65 on DraftKings (per our Trends tool).
He offers the highest ceiling and safest floor among today’s pitchers, which makes him a strong choice in all formats.
Values
In the next tier, Walker Buehler and Robbie Ray are squaring off in an NL West battle in Arizona. Both players have different factors working in their favor.
Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Walker Buehler
Let’s start with Buehler. He has the superior Vegas data despite being on the road. He’s a -140 favorite (see live odds here), and his opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs trails only Nola’s on the slate. The Diamondbacks have been mediocre against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking just 20th in wRC+.
Buehler has struggled after dominating over the second-half of last season, but some of his advanced stats suggest he’s due for regression. He’s stranded just 62.9% of baserunners this season, which is well below his mark of 78.4% from last season. He’s a nice buy-low target on DraftKings, where his $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Ray seems like the preferred option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 91%. He always has appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given his strikeout ability, and his 12-month K/9 of 11.46 is the top mark on the slate. He owns a K Prediction of 8.1, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.89 on FanDuel.
The Dodgers have been elite offensively, but they haven’t been as strong against left-handed pitchers. They rank first in wRC+ vs. right-handers but just seventh in wRC+ vs. southpaws.
Fastballs
Corbin Martin: He hasn’t been great this season, but pitching for the Astros does have its advantages. He’s a -140 favorite against the Mariners, and his $6,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 76%.
Wade LeBlanc: He’s dirt cheap at just $5,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s displayed a ceiling of 21.3 DraftKings points this season, so there is a scenario where he finds himself in the winning lineup on a short slate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. David Freese (R)
- 2. Justin Turner (R)
- 3. Chris Taylor (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
- 5. Enrique Hernandez (R)
Total salary: $21,400
The Dodgers could fly a bit under-the-radar tonight. Their implied team total of 4.7 ranks second on the slate, but Ray is still a scary pitcher to target.
Expect the Dodgers to counter with their righty-heavy lineup. Four of the top five batters in their projected lineup are right-handed, with Bellinger serving as the only exception. Ray has struggled a bit with right-handed batters this season, allowing them to post a .326 wOBA.
Freese in particular stands out as the projected leadoff hitter. He’s hit southpaws well over the past 12 months, owning a .409 wOBa and .228 ISO, and he’s very affordable across the industry. He’s also smoked the baseball over the past 15 days, averaging a 272-foot distance and 95 mile per hour exit velocity.
If you want to go with a more contrarian option, consider the Philadelphia Phillies:
- 1. Andrew McCutchen (R)
- 3. Bryce Harper (L)
- 5. J.T. Realmuto (R)
- 6. Scott Kingery (R)
Total salary: $13,900
The Phillies are probably a bit overpriced on FanDuel given their implied team total of 4.1 runs, but that’s not a major concern on a small slate. They undeniably have upside vs. Padres left-hander Eric Lauer. He’s been hit hard over his past two starts, allowing opposing batters to post an average exit velocity of 94 mph and hard-hit rate of 51%.
Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen
McCutchen is someone who deserves to be on your radar regardless of if you’re stacking the Phillies. He’s expected to bat leadoff at just $3,600, and he’s outperformed his 12-month marks in average distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. He’s also posted a strong .375 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months.
Other Batters
It’s really hard to avoid Myles Straw tonight on FanDuel. He’s currently priced at the absolute minimum and is expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Houston Astros. The Astros are implied for a slate-best 5.1 runs, and leadoff hitters with comparable salaries and implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.61. He’s a lock for cash games.
Dan Vogelbach has a nice matchup vs. Martin, who has been a pretty mediocre pitcher this season. Vogelbach has destroyed right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .409 wOBA and .314 ISO. He’s a strong choice on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 87%.
No one is going to target the Padres vs. Nola, which makes Hunter Renfroe an interesting option for GPPs. His Statcast data from his past 11 games is excellent — 245 foot distance, 96 mile per hour exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate — and he’s displayed big power against right-handers over the past 12 months. You can even theoretically pair him with Nola since a HR from Renfroe wouldn’t automatically tank his value.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Phillies SP Aaron Nola (27)
Photo credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
