Our MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.

Wednesday features a 15-game main slate starting at 4:10 p.m. ET.

Pitchers

Studs

Two pitchers on today’s slate are priced above $11,000 on FanDuel:

  • Shane Bieber (R) $11,700, CLE vs CWS
  • Trevor Bauer (R) $11,400, CIN vs MIL

Bieber has been nothing short of sensational in 2020 and will make his last start of 2020 against the Chicago White Sox. The 25-year-old has a 1.74 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 72 innings pitched. Bieber’s strikeout per nine innings pitched (K/9) has risen to a career-best 13.94.

Bieber is having a career year in 2020 and his Base Performance Value (BPV) is at a career-high of 215. His average fastball velocity is at 94.2 up 1.1 MPH from last year. Bieber has never thrown harder or looked better.

The righty will face off against a familiar foe in this one. The White Sox are the only team Bieber has faced in 2020 that he has not beat. Bieber went six innings in his first start, giving up three runs.

Bieber is on a mission in 2020 and there is no reason to step in front of him in this one. He is the highest-rated pitchers on Wednesday’s slate, according to the Bales Model, at 69.80. The White Sox are implied to score 3.1 runs, which is the lowest on today’s slate. Back Bieber with confidence as he looks to build his resume for his first Cy Young award.

Another stud pitcher on the slate is Trevor Bauer, who will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers. The 29-year-old is having a great year after a tough year 2019 in which he was traded to from the Indians to the Reds. He has a 1.80 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 174 BPV in 65 innings pitched.

Bauer has found the dominant form that he displayed in 2018. Unfortunately, his team has not been able to support him offensively and he comes into this start with a 4-4 record.

Bauer draws a great matchup with the Brewers coming to town. Milwaukee is in the bottom third in the league in runs scored. The righty will face Milwaukee for the third time this year, and he is 1-1 on the year against them but has been a bit unlucky in his first two starts.

Cincinnati is fighting for its playoff life and will need Bauer to be on his game. Bauer is looking for his first career Cy Young award and will have one last chance to make an impression on the voters. Bauer is a strong option on Wednesday. 

Values

Zack Greinke has been his consistent self in 2020. The 36-year-old comes into his final start of 2020 with a 3.90 ERA and 3.73 xERA. The righty has increased his BPV to 148 for the first time since 2011.

Greinke is a strong option today — according to the Bales Model. he has the fifth-highest rating of 64.19. He has a great matchup on Wednesday as he will face off against the Mariners. The Mariners come into this contest averaging 4.2 runs per game, which ranks 25th in the MLB.

The Mariners are implied to score 3.5 runs, which is tied for the third-lowest on today’s slate. Back Greinke with confidence as he looks to end his 2020 campaign on a strong note.

Lucas Giolito has found his groove after a rough beginning to his 2020 season. The 26-year-old comes into his final start of 2020 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The righty will face off against the Cleveland Indians for the third time in 2020. He has been nothing short of great in the first two starts.

The Indians are bottom 5 in runs scored per game in the league. Giolito has yet to beat the Indians in 2020 even with a 1.38 ERA against them. It is not going to get any easier today as he will face off against Shane Bieber. This helped lower Giolito’s price to $9,300 on FanDuel.

Fastballs

Adrian Houser has not been very good this season, illustrated by his 5.33 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. But the 27-year-old has been unlucky as he has a 4.23 xERA on the year. He faces off against a Cincinnati Reds team that has scored the 3.96 runs per game in 2020. That ranks 27th in all of MLB. Houser can be found at FanDuel at $5,600.

Notable Stacks

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Minnesota Twins:

  1. Byron Buxton (R)
  2. Josh Donaldson (R)
  3. Nelson Cruz (R)
  4. Eddie Rosario (L)

Total Salary: $13,000

The Twins are implied for 5.5 runs, which ranks first on Tuesday’s slate. Moreover, they are facing a Detroit Tigers team that is ranked 28th in runs allowed per game this season.

Donaldson stands out as a value at $3,000 and boasts a bargain rating of 65%. The 34-year-old has been hitting for more power lately after a slow start to the year. He has five home runs in his past 55 at-bats. Donaldson is hitting .333 this week and is projected to hit second in Wednesday’s lineup. Donaldson has the fourth-highest rating on the Bales Model at 75.53. Look for Donaldson to get on base early and often.

On DraftKings, the Houston Astros are a strong four-man stack:

  1. George Springer(R)
  2. Alex Bregman(R)
  3. Jose Altuve(R)
  4. Michael Brantley(L)

Total Salary: $16,300

The Astros are implied for 5.1 runs, which ranks third on Monday’s slate.

George Springer stands out as a value at $4,600 and boasts a ceiling of 31.80. The 30-year-old has been scorching hot in September, hitting .298 with eight home runs. Springer is projected to hit leadoff, which will give him ample opportunities against Nick Margevicius and the Mariners.

Other Batters

Kyle Schwarber stands out on FanDuel as he is priced at $2,900 against Pittsburgh right-hander Trevor Williams. Schwarber has three home runs and has hit .333 against Williams in 24 career at-bats. Look for Schwarber to continue his hot hitting ways against Williams and the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday.

Mookie Betts is another strong option and can be found on FanDuel at $4,600. The 27-year-old is hitting .301 with 16 home runs in 2020 and faces off today against A’s lefty Sean Manaea. Betts has hit .429 with two home runs in 14 at-bats in his career against Manaea. Betts is projected to hit leadoff.

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