Friday features a 12-game main slate on FanDuel starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
There are two pitchers priced over the $10,000 mark on FanDuel:
- Zach Plesac (R), $10,400, CLE @ DET
- Tyler Glasnow (R), $10,100, TB @ BAL
It’s not everyday you see those two pitchers at the top of a slate.
Plesac has been remarkably consistent all season. He’s coming off his worst start in 2020 but he still managed to go seven innings. The problem with rostering Plesac is that he doesn’t rack up strikeouts like other pitchers in this range. He averages 8.6 K/9, so it’s hard to justify paying up for him on Friday.
Of course, the Indians should win this game (Vegas has them as -192 favorites) and the Tigers are a middling offense with strikeout upside, but I would look elsewhere on this slate.
Glasnow’s ability to get strikeouts give him the edge over Plesac. Glasnow averages an elite 13.6 K/9, which is higher than some of the well-known aces of baseball. The flip side to that is that Glasnow is not as consistent at keeping runs off the board as a pitcher like Plesac.
The last time Glasnow faced these Baltimore Orioles, on August 25th, he had 64 FanDuel points on a season high 13 strikeouts.
Baltimore plays in a hitter’s park, but has actually averaged more runs per game on the road this season, and there is a strong wind at 15 MPH blowing in from left center.
The Tampa Bay Rays are -205 Vegas favorites and the Orioles have an implied run total of 3.5 runs. If you are willing to pay up to pick between these two, I would much rather have Glasnow than Plesac tonight.
The second-highest rated pitcher on the Bales Model is Chris Paddack. Paddack has been up and down this season even though his team has had a lot of success. That is likely why his price-tag is $700 less than where it started at the beginning of the season.
Tonight is a juicy matchup for Paddack with the Seattle Mariners. A few weeks ago, the Mariners were trying to make a push to slide their way into the postseason in the American League and have come up short.
Paddack has the third-highest K/9 on this slate, behind Glasnow and Zac Gallen, at 9.5. The Mariners have an implied run total of 3.7 runs and are playing in a pitcher friendly ballpark. Add to that there is a slight breeze in from left, and the vaunted Padres lineup gets to swing on Yusei Kikuchi, and Paddack really just needs to last in this game to provide value.
There is some concern for Paddack as he left his last start with a right ankle sprain. That was last Friday, so the Padres gave him an extra day or two to recover before making this start. Paddack’s numbers improve when he’s on 6+ days of rest.
If you’re looking to roster some Coors hitters, Paddack is the arm to roster at $8,200.
Jaime Barria rates out really well in the Bales Model tonight. Barria is a name not often referenced in fantasy circles, but tonight he could be utilized to fit a large game stack of Coors Field hitters. His salary is only $5,800 tonight.
With Barria, you are almost completely forgoing the chance to get a win or quality start – which are big bonuses on FanDuel. His highest innings pitched on the season was last time out at 5 1/3 innings.
Barria faces the Texas Rangers as a -155 Vegas favorite. Texas has the fewest runs per game in the league at 3.62. They have also averaged one run per game in their last three games.
Barria is a true punt play, who maybe surprises you with a win tonight. If you really want to pay up for the Coors bats, it could make some sense.
Zac Gallen is always worth a look but he gets a brutal draw on the road against the Houston Astros. Gallen has now given up 11 earned runs in his last 10 innings pitched – against the Mariners and San Francisco Giants, not exactly marquee offenses. It came out after his last start that he is dealing with some fingernail issues on his pitching hand and he is priced at $9,700. The Diamondbacks have already punted on this season – I would really avoid him tonight.
On the other hand, if you’re willing to pay up in that price range Zack Greinke could be interesting. The Diamondbacks have scored the 24th-most runs per game, but have struck out the fourth-fewest times per game. There is the “revenge” game aspect for Greinke, too. Greinke is pretty similar to Paddack for me tonight, so I could see using him, of course he is $1,300 more expensive.
The highest projected stack on the Bales Model is the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 6. Cody Bellinger (L)
- 4. Max Muncy (L)
Facing Ryan Castellani, this game is just screaming for runs. This group of four is projected for 61.6 FanDuel points on a $16,600 salary. The Dodgers have an absurd implied run total of 7.5 runs and all of their hitters have at least five ProTrends. Not to mention, the wind is blowing out at Coors.
The second-highest scoring projected stack, is you guessed it, the Colorado Rockies:
- 4. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 1. Raimel Tapia (L)
This group is projected for 54.6 FanDuel points on a salary of $15,500. The Dodgers have a true TBD for their starter in this game, as of this writing. The Rockies’ offense has really cooled in their last few games at home, as they have scored 12 runs in their last 5 home games. I would prefer the Dodgers stack to the Rockies one tonight.
Francisco Lindor is a 92% Bargain on the Bales Model for tonight. The Indians entire projected lineup is hitting for at least five ProTrends, with Lindor having six. The Indians get to face Michael Fulmer, which probably has them all licking their chops. In his career, Lindor is 6-for-18 off of Fulmer with two round-trippers.
The third-highest stack was actually the Tampa Bay Rays, facing Alex Cobb and the Orioles. Nate Lowe hits for seven ProTrends on the night and has five hits in his last 11 at-bats with a double and home run in that stretch. Cobb has always had trouble keeping the ball in the yard, so I would expect some home runs from the Tampa lineup tonight.