The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate: There’s a three-game early slate starting at 12:35 pm ET and a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers today have salaries of at least $10,800 on DraftKings:
As usual, paying up at pitcher is going to be significantly tougher on DraftKings. None of the top options has a Bargain Rating greater than even four percent, and only two of the 20 highest-salaried pitchers have a better Bargain Rating on DraftKings than on Fanduel.
Carlos Carrasco is the most-expensive pitcher at $12,600, and he stands out as the clear top option. He has an excellent matchup against the White Sox, whose .306 wOBA against right-handed pitchers is the third-worst mark this season. Their resulting implied team total of 3.3 runs is the lowest mark on the slate, and Carrasco is also the largest favorite of the day with -280 moneyline odds. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically been strong options on DraftKings (per the MLB Trends tool):
In addition to the poor wOBA, the White Sox have also struggled with strikeouts against right-handed pitchers. Their projected lineup has a 12-month strikeout rate of 30.0 percent, and Carrasco’s K Prediction of 8.6 is the top mark on the slate. Factoring a comparable K Prediction into the above trend increases the historical Plus/Minus to +5.81 and the Consistency Rating to over 70 percent.
Carrasco also has excellent Statcast data over his last two starts, owning 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of -6 feet, -2 miles per hour, and -12 percentage points. He’s averaged only 93 pitches per start over that time frame, but that hasn’t stopped him from pitching seven innings and striking out eight batters in each game. He can likely go a little further in this start if he has to.
Luis Castillo has seen his DraftKings salary increase by $6,600 since the start of the season, and with good reason: His 71 percent Consistency Rating is the top mark among today’s pitchers. He’s also been the best strikeout pitcher among the early starters with a 12-month K/9 of 10.36, and his K Prediction of 7.7 is first on the slate by a wide margin. Pitchers with comparable 12-month Consistency Ratings and K Predictions have historically returned value on DraftKings:
His Statcast data over his last two starts is also elite: 161-foot average distance, 84 mile per hour exit velocity, and 24 percent hard hit rate. The distance represents a differential of -32 feet compared to his 12-month average and gives Castillo a unique combination of an elite recent batted ball profile and strikeout ability. Castillo is also a -156 favorite, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions, distance differentials, and odds have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.79.
Values
Dinelson Lamet has been an excellent option recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.09 over his last 10 starts, and he looks to be in another good spot today. Like Castillo, Lamet combines elite strikeout potential and Statcast data on today’s slate. He’s posted a distance differential of -25 feet over his last two starts and has a K Prediction of 8.0 against the St. Louis Cardinals; pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have historically been elite options on FanDuel:
Unlike Castillo, Lamet gets to take the mound at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. He’s rewarded with a Park Factor of 80, which is one of the top marks on the slate today, and his opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs ranks fifth. He’s been low-owned virtually all season with average ownership of just 7.5 percent on FanDuel, but he offers as much upside as anyone on today’s slate.
Kenta Maeda is tied for second in both opponent implied team total (3.8 runs) and moneyline odds (-164) among today’s starters. His K Prediction of 7.1 ranks sixth, and pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have historically exceeded expectations on DraftKings:
There are two concerns that limits Maeda’s appeal, however. The first is his recent Statcast data: He’s allowed a horrid batted ball distance of 231 feet over his last two starts, which represents an increase of 24 feet compared to his 12-month average. The second concern is his recent pitch count of 76, which is an issue that has plagued him all season. He’s completed just seven innings in four of his 24 starts this season, and he hasn’t thrown over 100 pitches in a start since May 10. With such a limited pitch count, it’s difficult for Maeda to put up the kind of performance you need to win a guaranteed prize pool (GPP). He should still carry moderate ownership on today’s slate, which Pro Subscribers can review using the DFS Ownership Dashboard, but there are plenty of pitchers in the same price range that offer more upside.
Fastballs
Gerrit Cole: He’s a slight underdog at +124, but his K Prediction of 7.2 is fifth on today’s slate. He also has a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -6 feet, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.89 on FanDuel.
Doug Fister: He’s crushed over his last seven starts with an average Plus/Minus of +8.35 on DraftKings, and he remains affordable at only $7,600. He’s a -164 favorite today against the Toronto Blue Jays, and he’s posted distance and hard hit differentials of -12 feet and -13 percentage points over his last three starts. Pitchers with comparable differentials and odds have a historical Plus/Minus of +2.14.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
Per the Vegas Dashboard, the Reds are implied for a slate-high 5.3 runs on the early slate. They’re facing Brewers right-hander Matt Garza, who has the second-worst 12-month WHIP and HR/9 among the early starters. Many of them are on the positive side of their batting splits facing a right-handed pitcher:
The Reds will likely be the chalkiest team on the early slate given their implied team total, so stacking them in a contrarian manner will be important. One potential diversifying option is projected No. 7 hitter Scott Schebler. He is in the best recent form of all the Reds batters, owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +30 feet; batters with comparable differentials and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.02 on DraftKings. You can review the ownership dynamics of a particular stack using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
We’ve recently added FantasyDraft ratings to our Models, and they allow you to stack up to six batters from the same team. The top six-man FantasyDraft stack on the main slate belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
The Giants are playing in Coors Field today, but their resulting implied team total of 5.5 runs ranks ‘just’ fourth on the slate. The Giants do seem underpriced on FantasyDraft given their implied team total, however, with each batter possessing a Bargain Rating of at least 81 percent:
The Giants are facing left-handed pitcher Kyle Freeland, which should be a benefit for Nick Hundley. He’s posted a wOBA of .389 and ISO of .241 against southpaws over the past 12 months, and he’s in good recent form with distance, exit velocity, and hard hit differentials of +15 feet, +3 miles per hour, and +5 percentage points. He also hasn’t exactly benefited from his strong batted profile yet either; his Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +75 is one of the highest marks on the slate.
Batters
Trevor Story is projected to bat eighth for the Rockies and is on the negative side of his batting splits against Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto, yet he still leads the slate with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings. The main reason is his recent Statcast data: He’s averaged a batted ball distance of 258 feet over his last 12 games, and even batters in the bottom third of the lineup have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.85 at Coors when entering with comparable recent distances.
No one in baseball has been hotter than Jose Ramirez recently:
He’s hit five home runs in his last three games, and he looks to be in another good spot today. He’s facing White Sox right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, who’s allowed an average of 1.52 home runs per nine innings over the past 12 months and an average distance of 237 feet over his most recent start.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
