The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 15-game main slate at 7:05 pm ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s massive main slate has numerous stud pitchers: There are eight options $9,000 or more on FanDuel, and some of the guys just below that would likely be stud-ish in a less loaded slate:
This group includes the top pitchers in 2017 WAR, Chris Sale and James Paxton, with 2.0 and 1.7. Sale has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball to begin the season, and although he’s gone only 1-2 (because of Boston’s struggling offense without David Ortiz) he’s put up some monster fantasy outings, averaging an +18.98 Plus/Minus in his first five starts.
He’s the biggest favorite today with a -233 moneyline against the Orioles, who are currently implied for just 3.3 runs. Pitchers who hit the -200 moneyline threshold have historically done very well on FanDuel, averaging 40.12 FanDuel points and a +6.76 Plus/Minus with a 67.6 percent Consistency Rating. His Statcast data over his last two games is solid enough: He’s allowed a batted ball distance of 203 feet and a hard hit rate of 25 percent. What makes Sale so dominant, however, is his strikeout upside: His 9.4 K Prediction leads all pitchers today by at least a full strikeout. If we add a K Prediction of nine-plus filter to the moneyline trend above, we find a pitcher cohort that has historically averaged 50.51 FanDuel points and an +11.86 Plus/Minus with a 75.4 percent Consistency Rating. He’ll be rightfully chalky today.
Jon Lester and Corey Kluber have been polar opposites over their last two starts:
- Lester: 10 earned runs, nine strikeouts, 11.1 innings pitched, 31 total FanDuel points
- Kluber: three earned runs, 19 strikeouts, 16 innings pitched, 116 total FanDuel points
And yet here’s their Vegas data:
Bettors expect Lester to bounce back, and there’s data to support this position. Take a look at Lester and Kluber’s Statcast data:
- Lester: 192-foot batted ball distance, 89 MPH exit velocity, 25 percent hard hit rate, 65 percent ground ball rate
- Kluber: 177-foot batted ball distance, 87 MPH exit velocity, 28 percent hard hit rate, 47 percent ground ball rate
Kluber still has better data, and a lot of his excellent production has come from his strikeout upside, but the difference between Lester and Kluber is not drastic. That said, Kluber’s 7.3 K Prediction still outpaces Lester’s 6.4 mark today, and his opponent implied total of 3.0 runs seems low considering that Philadelphia ranks seventh and eighth this season with team ISO and wOBA marks of .178 and .325.
The dynamic between these two pitchers is further complicated by their salaries: Lester is $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings but actually $100 more expensive on FanDuel. Given his Vegas data, he could be higher-owned on both sites. Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Values
Alex Wood has an 8.1 K Prediction — the third-highest mark in the slate — yet he’s only $7,900 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel. He gets the Giants, who have been awful offensively this season, ranking 29th in the league with a .278 team wOBA. He faced them on the road last Wednesday and finished with 37.0 FanDuel points and allowed a single hit across six innings pitched. The Giants are currently implied for a low 3.3 runs, and he’s a sizable favorite at -164. The issue with Wood is that he may not go far into the game; he was rolling in his last start, but the Dodgers removed him after six innings and just 77 pitches. Apparently manager Dave Roberts had a pitch count in place for Wood, who admitted he didn’t know about it himself:
“I didn’t know I was on a pitch count until I got yanked. That was probably the longest I’ve gone since my last spring start so I wasn’t surprised.”
The Giants ended up winning that game in the 10th inning, but it’s unlikely that will factor into tonight’s game; Wood will likely be monitored yet again. So while he may be popping in the Player Models, it’s important to remember that at around 80 pitches his upside is limited, especially in a 15-game slate.
Trevor Cahill is a unique pitcher. While he’s given up quite a few runs this year . . .
. . . he’s also struck out at least six batters in every start. He remains incredibly cheap at $5,000 on DraftKings and $6,900 on FanDuel, and he is seventh among all pitchers today with a 6.8 K Prediction. And it’s not as if he’s projected to give up a lot of runs, either: He’s facing the Rockies, who are currently implied for a low 3.8 runs outside of Coors Field. The list of historical players who have hit those two marks at a price as cheap as Cahill’s is quite small: Out of 15,010 total starting pitchers since 2014, only 19 have matched Cahill’s Trend filters. Those pitchers haven’t crushed value — they’ve averaged just 13.96 DraftKings points — but the rarity of the situation I think is the most important factor here:
He’s gone past 5.2 innings only once this year, but if he’s able to do that again he will pay off his salary in a big way and allow users to pay up for a guy like Sale.
Fastballs
Carlos Martinez: He has a boom-or-bust matchup against a Brewers squad that ranks first in team ISO (.227) and second in team strikeout rate (25.6 percent); Vegas suggests it’ll be more boom, as Milwaukee is currently implied for just 3.2 runs.
James Paxton: He dominated last outing, putting up 58.0 FanDuel points against the Tigers, but he’s likely been lucky: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a poor batted ball distance of 218 feet and an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. On DraftKings, the highest-rated five-man stack (using player ratings in the Bales Model as our guide) belongs to the New York Yankees:
They should be one of the chalkiest teams of the night, as they’re currently implied to score a slate-high 5.4 runs — they opened at 5.0, by the way — against the Toronto Blue Jays. They face righty Mat Latos, who owns the second-worst past-year WHIP among all pitchers in this slate at 1.767. He had a nice performance last outing, limiting the Cardinals to just zero runs and just three hits across six innings, but his Statcast data is still problematic: Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a batted ball distance of 220 feet and an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour. Our Park Factor metric adjusts for handedness, and lefties at Yankee Stadium own a slate-high 81 Park Factor today.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man non-Yankees stack belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
I seemingly write about the Cardinals every day, and it’s mostly because of their elite Statcast data: Five of their projected top-six hitters (per the MLB Lineups page) have recent batted ball exit velocities of 91 miles per hour or higher. Jedd Gyorko has been especially crushing the ball: He went for two home runs last night, and he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 243 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 44 percent over his last 10 games. Today they face Wily Peralta, who has allowed a batted ball distance of 243 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 47 percent over his last two games. That’s mostly due to his performance two starts ago, when he allowed six earned runs and nine hits across just four innings — to the Cardinals.
Batters
Taijuan Walker put up an absolute gem of a game last start, going for 61.0 FanDuel points thanks to 11 strikeouts across eight innings pitched. That said, he still owns the worst HR/9 allowed in the slate at 2.0, and today he’s facing a Nationals offense implied for 4.6 runs. Given the high totals for the Yankees and the Red Sox, it’s likely they will carry the highest ownership in today’s slate:
Further, FantasyLabs Co-Founder Jonathan Bales in a recent MLB video of his mentioned that no stack really carries high ownership in a 15-game slate. That makes the Cubs and Nationals intriguing tonight; anytime you can get arguably the two best offenses in the league at low(-ish) ownership, it’s likely a +EV move. The Nationals own the highest team wOBA (.372) in MLB this year by a mile, and several of their batters are hitting the ball well right now. Ryan Zimmerman has been about as hot as an MLB player can get as of late . . .
. . . and his Statcast data is just as good: Over his last 12 games, he’s averaged a batted ball distance of 253 feet, an exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 47 percent. He’s on the wrong side of his splits today, but he’s also just $3,900 on FanDuel and projected for two to four percent ownership. Sign me up.
Zimmerman has elite recent Statcast data, but compare those marks listed above to Justin Turner‘s numbers:
- Zimmerman: 253-foot batted ball distance, 96 MPH exit velocity, 40 percent fly ball rate, 47 percent hard hit rate
- Turner: 247-foot batted ball distance, 94 MPH exit velocity, 40 percent fly ball rate, 35 percent hard hit rate
And here’s Turner’s recent production:
Zimmerman’s batted ball distance is a little better than Turner’s but not that much. Giants pitcher Matt Moore has allowed a batted ball distance of 220 feet and a hard hit rate of 41 percent over his last two starts.
And finally, I’ll just leave this here.
Whew.
Good luck, and be sure to do your own research with the Labs Tools!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
