The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Note: The Marlins-Mets game has been postponed due to rain.
One pitcher stands out above the rest on DraftKings:
- Corey Kluber (R) $11,100, CLE @ TB
Kluber is now the lone stud option with Jacob deGrom scratched, and he’s coming off a pair of fantastic starts in his past two outings. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +16.38 on DraftKings, allowing just one earned run while striking out 18 batters over 13.2 innings. That said, his Statcast data suggests he got lucky: He allowed an average distance of 237 feet, which represents a differential of +31 feet compared to his 12-month average. The result is a Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) score of -90, so he could be due for some regression moving forward.
That said, he does have an excellent matchup vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. Statcast data can’t hurt you if the opposing team can’t put the ball in play, and the Rays projected lineup has struck out in 25.0% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months. Kluber’s resulting K Prediction of 6.9 ranks second on the slate. The Rays haven’t been particularly effective when they have managed to put the ball in play, owning a splits-adjusted wOBA of just .290. Kluber makes a lot of sense on DraftKings, where his $11,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
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Values
The value options on today’s slate are pretty uninspiring. Sean Newcomb has been hit extremely hard recently, allowing his past two opponents to compile an average distance of 236 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 57%; all three represent significant increases compared to his 12-month averages.
However, he does have an outstanding matchup vs. the San Francisco Giants. His opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs trails only the marks of the stud pitchers, and the Giants projected lineup has limped to a .277 wOBA and 28.7% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Newcomb also benefits from facing the Giants in San Francisco, resulting in a Park Factor of 90.
Targeting pitchers at Coors is very rarely a smart strategy, but it’s impossible to ignore what German Marquez has done recently. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +11.54 over his past 10 starts on DraftKings and has pitched to a 2.79 ERA and 11.40 K/9 over the second half of the season.
He’s in an interesting spot today vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks. They’re implied for 4.6 runs, but their projected lineup owns a wOBA of just .308 against right-handers over the past 12 months. They’ve also been strikeout prone, giving Marquez a solid K Prediction of 7.2. He could be worth considering for GPPs.
Lucas Giolito has been a disaster this season but has started to turn the corner. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.32 over his past 10 starts, and he’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 184 feet. That represents a differential of -22 feet compared to his 12-month average, and pitchers with a comparable price tag and distance differential have averaged an Upside Rating of 22% at historical ownership of just 4.1%. He has a strong matchup vs. the Royals, who have averaged the second-fewest runs per game this season.
Fastballs
J.A. Happ: He owns an opponent implied team total of 3.8 runs and is a -155 moneyline favorite vs. the Minnesota Twins. He looks like a nice potential value at $9,300 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 81%.
Jakob Junis: He has a nice matchup vs. the Chicago White Sox, whose projected lineup owns a 27.6% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Junis also enters today’s contest in good recent form, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -20 feet.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 2. DJ LeMahieu (R)
- 4. Carlos Gonzalez (L)
- 5. Trevor Story (R)
- 7. Ian Desmond (R)
Total Salary: $24,400
The Rockies are playing at Coors and unsurprisingly own the highest implied team total of the day at 5.4 runs. That said, a full Rockies stack could actually be a bit contrarian: It’s difficult to pair them with Kluber, and most people will likely lean on the top arm given the lack of reliable value pitching options. They’re in a nice spot against Diamondbacks righty Zack Godley, who has allowed his past two opponents to post an average exit velocity of 97 mph and hard-hit rate of 48%.
One batter who stands out for the Rockies is projected cleanup hitter Carlos Gonzalez. He’s crushed the ball over his past 11 games, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +24 feet. That hasn’t exactly translated to fantasy success yet, but his RBBL of +59 suggests positive regression could be headed his way.
If you’re looking for a cheaper stack, consider the New York Mets. They own the top non-Coors stack on FanDuel:
- 1. Amed Rosario (R)
- 2. Michael Conforto (L)
- 4. Jay Bruce (L)
- 5. Todd Frazier (R)
Total Salary: $11,800
Their implied team total of 4.5 runs is tied for fifth on today’s slate, but they do look like strong values: Rosario and Bruce each own a Bargain Rating of at least 90%, while their Team Value Rating of 74 ranks fourth on FanDuel. They’re taking on Marlins right-hander Jeff Brigham, who posted a disastrous 9.00 ERA and 12.00 BB/9 in his first start at the MLB level.
Other Batters
Minimum-priced leadoff hitters are always appealing in daily fantasy baseball, and one batter who fits that description on today’s slate is Chase d’Arnaud. He’s priced at just $2,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%, and will have a splits advantage vs. Newcomb. He’s fared well against southpaws over the past 12 months, owning a .325 wOBA and .217 ISO.
Kole Calhoun is on the reverse side of his batting splits against Rangers lefty Mike Minor, but he enters today’s contest in excellent recent form. He’s posted an elite hard-hit rate of 58% over his past 10 games, which represents an increase of +15 percentage points compared to his 12-month average. The Angels are implied for 4.4 runs, and Calhoun is expected to occupy the key leadoff spot in the lineup.
Jon Jay is another batter expected to bat leadoff, and he’s expected to do it for a Diamondbacks team playing at Coors. He’s priced at just $4,000 on DraftKings, and comparably-priced leadoff hitters have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.60 at Coors.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with ourindustry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: German Marquez
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
