After an incredible week of golf at the Travelers Championship, the PGA TOUR makes one final stop at TPC Deere Run to play the John Deere Classic. Last year, we saw Lucas Glover capture his first win in over a decade by firing a final round 64 to claim victory.
TPC Deere Run is a 7,268-yard par 71 located in Silvis, Illinois. The course historically fails to present a significant challenge for golfers with easy-to-hit fairways and bentgrass greens. Most players will have short approach shots into the greens, and the event often turns into a bit of a putting contest.
The John Deere Classic will play host to 156 golfers, and as expected, the field is considerably weaker than we have gotten used to this season.
After a long run of top-tier events, many of the world’s top players are taking the week off.
Some of the notable golfers who will make the trip to the Midwest include Webb Simpson, Jason Day, Adam Hadwin, Denny McCarthy, and Sahith Theegala.
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach is historically the most predictive statistic at TPC Deere Run.
It’s a relatively short course and has extremely wide fairways. Lack of distance off the tee will not be a significant hindrance to golfers, as most approach shots will allow for a short iron or wedge onto the green.
- High-end target: Cameron Davis — $8,400 (2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Mid-range target: C.T. Pan— $8,100 (1st in Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Value target: Vaughn Taylor— $6,800 (4th in Strokes Gained: Approach)
Birdie or Better: Gained
Scores can get extremely low at TPC Deere Run as the course will offer plenty of birdie opportunities. Twelve of the 18 holes on the course historically average under par.
- High-end target: Adam Hadwin— $10,400 (9th Birdie or Better: Gained)
- Mid-range target: Nate Lashley— $7,200 (4th Birdie or Better: Gained)
- Value target: Chad Ramey— $7,000 (1st Birdie or Better: Gained)
Par 4: 400-450
With five par 4s on the course in this range, it will be crucial for golfers to play these holes well.
- High-end target: Brendon Todd $8,500 (14th Par 4: 400-450)
- Mid-range target: Alex Smalley— $7,600 (5th Par 4: 400-450)
- Value target: Patrick Flavin— $6,300 (1st Par 4: 400-450)
Approach shots measuring between 125 and 150 yards are very common at TPC Deere Run. This event will likely turn into a wedge-fest, so whoever is dialed in with their wedges will give themselves a chance to win.
- High-end target: Scott Stallings— $8,900 (20th Proximity 125-150)
- Mid-range target: Cameron Champ— $8,000 (16th Proximity 125-150)
- Value target: Rory Sabbatini— $6,800 (3rd Proximity 125-150)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
With green in regulation percentages definitively higher at TPC Deere Run than the average TOUR stop, the winner will likely be determined by who can catch the hottest putter.
- High-end target: Patrick Rodgers— $8,800 (1st Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
- Mid-range target: Hank Lebioda— $7,300 (8th Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
- Value target: Austin Cook— $6,500— (6th Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)