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Week 10 NFL Fantasy WR Breakdown: Jakeem Grant, Forever

The Week 10 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the Models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

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Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are six wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 10 fantasy football rankings (as of Thursday afternoon).

  • Davante Adams: No. 1 (PPR) | No. 1 (Half PPR) | No. 1 (STD)
  • DeAndre Hopkins: No. 5 (PPR) | No. 6 (Half PPR) | No. 5 (STD)
  • Robby Anderson: No. 11 (PPR) | No. 10 (Half PPR) | No. 12 (STD)
  • Diontae Johnson: No. 26 (PPR) | No. 28 (Half PPR) | No. 31 (STD)
  • Josh Reynolds: No. 56 (PPR) | No. 55 (Half PPR) | No. 52 (STD)
  • Jakeem Grant: No. 60 (PPR) | No. 60 (Half PPR) | No. 63 (STD)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.


Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.


Davante Adams: Green Bay Packers (-13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (51 Over/Under)

Let’s just get this out of the way: The Jaguars are No. 32 with a 36.5% pass-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). They are bad.

In each of their past four games, they have allowed a 100-yard receiver.

  • Brandin Cooks (Week 5): 30.1 PPR, 22.1 STD | 8-161-1, 12 targets
  • Kenny Golladay (Week 6): 14.5 PPR, 10.5 STD | 4-105-0, six targets
  • Keenan Allen (Week 7): 22.5 PPR, 12.5 STD | 10-125-0, 13 targets
  • Will Fuller (Week 9): 21.0 PPR, 16.0 STD | 5-100-1, five targets

Adams has one of the best matchups of the week.

And that seems especially unfair, because Adams is the NFL’s best wide receiver.

In the post-Jordy Nelson era, Adams has been exceptional: Since 2018, he has been the NFL’s most reliably productive wide receiver on a per-game basis (including postseason).

  • Fantasy Production: 22.0 PPR points (1st) | 14.4 STD points (2nd)
  • Football Production: 95.9 yards (2nd) | 0.80 touchdowns (2nd) | 7.5 receptions (2nd)

Over the past two-plus seasons, Adams is No. 1 with 11.1 targets per game.

On a per-snap basis, he has been a top-five producer (including postseason, per Pro Football Focus).

  • 2020 (six games): 0.50 PPR points (1st) | 0.34 standard points (1st)
  • 2019 (14 games): 0.34 PPR points (2nd) | 0.21 standard points (5th)
  • 2018 (15 games): 0.34 PPR points (3rd) | 0.23 standard points (4th)

This year he is No. 1 with 3.26 yards per route. Last year, he was No. 2 with 2.61.

Even though Adams played just half of Week 2, leaving the game early with a hamstring injury that sidelined him through the Week 5 bye, Adams is still No. 1 at the position with 21.0 expected fantasy points per game (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary) and No. 4 with 153.3 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game.

AirYAC is a leading indicator of fantasy output. You can find it at RotoViz.

Naturally, he’s No. 1 with a 0.79 WOPR.

WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is a stat created by Josh Hermsmeyer. It combines market shares of targets and air yards and is available at AirYards.com.

In his five full games this year, Adams is 50-639-8 receiving on 67 targets.

He is absolutely dominating.

Full disclosure: I’m betting on the Packers.

In only one year — ONE! — has quarterback Aaron Rodgers had a losing record against the spread (ATS) at home in the regular season.

That was 2008, his first season as a starter.

Ever since then, Rodgers at Lambeau Field has been no worse than .500 ATS in any season. For his career, Rodgers at home is an A-graded 55-31-3 ATS, good for a 24.4% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



You can bet on this game at FanDuel.

The Packers have a slate-high 31.5-point implied Vegas total. Points will abound, and Adams is likely to get more than his fair share.

Adams is a locked-in every-week top-three WR1 in season-long leagues and a strong pay-up play in DFS, especially in cash games. Adams leads all wide receivers in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

You can use our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool to research the overlapping production of receivers and passers, and over the past year Adams and Rodgers have a 0.65 correlation. For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Adams with his quarterback.

Adams is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Hodge Model for FanDuel.


DeAndre Hopkins: Arizona Cardinals (-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (56 O/U)

Hopkins is having a great season. He’s No. 3 with 7.5 receptions and 91.8 yards per game. On his targets, he has a strong 78.9% catch rate and has gifted to quarterback Kyler Murray a stellar 9.9 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A, per RotoViz AY/A App).

He’s No. 7 with 15.4 expected fantasy points per game, and he has exceeded his baseline with +3.5 fantasy points over expectation. In his first year with the Cardinals, Hopkins has continued to produce like the three-time All-Pro dominator he is.

But I’m approaching Hopkins with caution this week. Not to be an alarmist … but I’m worried. His booming upside is established and known, but his bustable downside might be underappreciated given his recent usage and matchup.

Last week, Hopkins had season-low marks with his 3-30-0 receiving performance on three targets. We shouldn’t make too much a one-game sample, but this isn’t just a onetime thing.

No. 2 wide receiver Christian Kirk missed Week 3 with an injury, and since his return in Week 4 we have seen a clear difference in Hopkins’ usage and production (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

Fewer targets, fewer receptions, fewer yards. Far less fantasy production. In Weeks 1-3, Hopkins had no fewer than nine targets in any game. In Weeks 4-9, he has had more than nine targets just once.

Since Kirk’s return, Hopkins has basically been an on/off switch (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

I don’t think Kirk is better than Hopkins, but a Weeks 4-9 comparison of the two is instructive.

  • DeAndre Hopkins (Weeks 4-9): 15.6 PPR, 10.0 STD | 28-378-2, 39 targets
  • Christian Kirk (Weeks 4-9): 18.1 PPR, 14.1 STD | 20-343-6, 31 targets

Touchdowns come and go, and Kirk is especially hot right now — but it’s notable that over the past five games Kirk has out-targeted Hopkins in the red zone (10 vs. 5) and the end zone (4 vs. 2, per PFF). It’s not entirely luck that Kirk has more touchdowns since Week 4.

And in terms of targets and yards, Kirk has held his own.

He’s not the No. 1 receiver, but Kirk is enough of a nuisance as a strong No. 2 option to diminish the upside and enhance the downside of Hopkins.

And on top of all of this is the matchup.

Last week, Hopkins was shadowed by Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard, an inconsistent but ballhawking defender with four interceptions on the year, and rather than test Howard, Murray chose to reallocate Hopkins’ would-be opportunities to other players.

Hence, Hopkins’ three targets.

We could see something similar this week, as Hopkins is likely to face 2019 All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White in shadow coverage.

White hasn’t been as good this year, and last week Seahawks wide receivers D.K. Metcalf and David Moore were a combined 4-120-1 receiving on eight targets in his coverage.

But White is still easily the best corner the Bills have, and he has been targeted just 3.5 times per game this year.

With White on Hopkins, Murray might look to throw elsewhere once again.

For what it’s worth, the Bills are in a good situational spot. As road underdogs, the Bills are 7-2-2 ATS (41.4% ROI) in quarterback Josh Allen’s starts.



And road dogs are 3-1 ATS (44.3% ROI) against head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s Cardinals. You can bet on this game at DraftKings. This is a spot where a lot might not go right for Hopkins and his team.

I want to be clear: None of this analysis is meant to cast aspersions at Hopkins. He still has immense talent and a week-winning ceiling. It’s just that now, with his reduced usage and hard matchup, he also has a lowered floor.

Hopkins is a mid-range WR1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales Model for DraftKings.


Robby Anderson: Carolina Panthers (+5.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5 O/U)

I admit it: Sometimes I send out a tweet just so I can embed it in an article. You got to stack that content.

It might be hard to hear, but Anderson is still the No. 1 receiver in Carolina.

Relative to what he did in Weeks 1-5, Anderson disappointed in Weeks 6-9.

But let’s be real for a minute: Is there anything all that disappointing with a guy who has a 1,000-yard 16-game pace on 8.5 targets per game in a four-week sample?

That’s not bad at all.

Yes, Anderson has been outproduced by D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel over the past month, which is especially notable since Samuel has missed a game.

  • Robby Anderson (Weeks 6-9): 12.3 PPR, 6.3 STD | 24-253-0, 34 targets
  • D.J. Moore (Weeks 6-9): 12.7 PPR, 9.5 STD | 13-259-2, 25 targets
  • Curtis Samuel (Weeks 6-9): 21.6 PPR, 15.3 STD | 19-177-2, 20 targets | 7-41-2 rushing

But even within this sample Anderson has dominated on a per-game basis with his underlying metrics.

  • Robby Anderson (Weeks 6-9): 27% target share | 0.69 WOPR | 116.2 AirYAC
  • D.J. Moore (Weeks 6-9): 21% target share | 0.45 WOPR | 72.3 AirYAC
  • Curtis Samuel (Weeks 6-9): 20% target share | 0.52 WOPR | 98 AirYAC

He had team-high marks just last week with 13 targets and nine receptions. Anderson is still the man.

He has a tough matchup: The Bucs are No. 2 with a -15.0% pass-defense DVOA, and shutdown cornerback Carlton Davis typically shadows dominant perimeter receivers.

You probably already know this, but Davis is good.

But I don’t know if he’ll tail Anderson, since Moore is also a shadow-worthy receiver.

In Week 2 against the Panthers, the Bucs played Davis at left corner, and there’s a decent chance they’ll do that again this week. On that side of the field, Davis is likely to match up most with Anderson, but because the Panthers move him all over the field, including the slot, Anderson should be able to escape Davis’ coverage often enough to put up fantasy points.

Against the Bucs in Week 2, Anderson was 9-109-0 receiving on 10 targets.

Despite the matchup, Anderson could still go off.

From a betting perspective, the Panthers are almost always in play. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is 32-11 ATS (45.7% ROI) for his career, and as an underdog he is 22-5 ATS (59.4% ROI).



Just last week, we saw the underdog Saints take it to the Bucs in a 38-3 victory driven by the passing game, and the Panthers certainly have the receiving weapons to challenge the Bucs pass defense. You can bet on this game at William Hill.

Anderson is a borderline WR1/2 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 option in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +4.80 Projected Plus/Minus.


Diontae Johnson: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (45.5 O/U)

Johnson has suffered in-game injuries in literally half the games he has played this year.

  • Week 3: Concussion
  • Week 5: Back
  • Week 7: Leg/ankle
  • Week 8: Hamstring

And that doesn’t take into account that he missed Week 6.

But in the five games in which Johnson has played at least 50% of the snaps (Weeks 1-2, Weeks 7-9), he is 30-312-3 receiving with a team-high 52 targets, 26% market share, 0.60 WOPR and 116.6 AirYAC per game.

As Megatron-like as rookie Chase Claypool has been this year, and as 2018-ish as JuJu Smith-Schuster has looked over the past few weeks, Johnson is still the No. 1 receiver for the Steelers.

The Bengals are coming off the bye, so they should be ready for this game, but they are No. 25 with a 19.1% pass-defense DVOA.

Here are the perimeter receivers with six-plus targets against the Bengals this year.

  • Mike Williams (Week 1): 10.9 PPR, 6.9 STD | 4-69-0, nine targets
  • Odell Beckham Jr. (Week 2): 17.4 PPR, 13.4 STD | 4-74-1, six targets
  • D.J. Chark Jr. (Week 4): 29.5 PPR, 21.5 STD | 8-95-2, nine targets
  • Laviska Shenault Jr. (Week 4): 14.1 PPR, 9.1 STD | 5-86-0, six targets | 1-5-0 rushing
  • Marquise Brown (Week 5): 19.8 PPR, 13.8 STD | 6-77-1, 10 targets | 1-1-0 rushing
  • Marcus Johnson (Week 6): 15.8 PPR, 10.8 STD | 5-108-0, eight targets
  • Rashard Higgins (Week 7): 17.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 6-110-0, six targets
  • Corey Davis (Week 8): 26.8 PPR, 18.8 STD | 8-128-1, 10 targets
  • A.J. Brown (Week 8): 12.4 PPR, 8.4 STD | 4-24-1, seven targets

There’s no denying that Johnson is a boom-or-bust receiver.

But if he makes it through the majority of this game, Johnson is likely to get six-plus targets, and if he hits that threshold, he could dominate.

It’s just an added bonus that the Bengals might be without cornerback Darius Phillips (groin), who exited Week 8 early and did not practice on Wednesday off the bye, which bodes poorly for his Week 10 availability.

Johnson is an upside WR2/3 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 wide receiver in the SportsGeek Model for FanDuel.


Josh Reynolds: Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) vs. Seahawks (54.5 O/U)

This is the second time in three weeks Reynolds has topped some of our Models. Finally, we have definitive evidence that existence is a simulation.

In Weeks 1-2, Josh Reynolds out-snapped rookie Van Jefferson, but the team made a concerted effort to funnel opportunities to the new shiny second-rounder, and those came at the expense of the veteran.

  • Josh Reynolds (Weeks 1-2): 79 snaps | 3-50-0, three targets | 50 AirYAC
  • Van Jefferson (Weeks 1-2): 59 snaps | 5-76-0, eight targets | 109 AirYAC

Since then, however, Reynolds has relegated Jefferson to a distant backup.

  • Josh Reynolds (Weeks 3-9): 321 snaps | 19-272-2, 35 targets | 565 AirYAC
  • Van Jefferson (Weeks 3-9): 49 snaps | 4-45-0, six targets | 90 AirYAC

Since Week 3, Reynolds is No. 2 on the team with 94.1 AirYAC and No. 3 with 45.3 yards and 5.8 targets per game. He hasn’t just overtaken Jefferson. He has also overtaken tight ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett.

Right now, Reynolds is the true No. 3 receiving option on the Rams.

But really none of that matters. What matters is the matchup.

With a funnel defense that ranks No. 9 against the run (-21.9% DVOA) and No. 29 against the pass (23.4%), the Seahawks are utterly exploitable via the air.

Imagine I’m Matt Damon in Ocean’s Eleven as I say this: The list of guys who have gone off against the Seahawks … well, it’s long.

  • Calvin Ridley (Week 1): 33.9 PPR, 24.9 STD | 9-130-2, 12 targets
  • Julio Jones (Week 1): 24.7 PPR, 15.7 STD | 9-157-0, 12 targets
  • Russell Gage (Week 1): 20.4 PPR, 11.4 STD | 9-114-0, 12 targets
  • Julian Edelman (Week 2): 25.9 PPR, 17.9 STD | 8-179-0, 11 targets
  • N’Keal Harry (Week 2): 15.2 PPR, 7.2 STD | 8-72-0, 12 targets
  • Damiere Byrd (Week 2): 13.2 PPR, 7.2 STD | 6-72-0, nine targets
  • Amari Cooper (Week 3): 17.6 PPR, 8.6 STD | 9-86-0, 12 targets
  • Michael Gallup (Week 3): 25.8 PPR, 19.8 STD | 6-138-1, nine targets
  • CeeDee Lamb (Week 3): 11.6 PPR, 6.6 STD | 5-65-0, six targets
  • Cedrick Wilson (Week 3): 27.7 PPR, 22.7 STD | 5-107-2, seven targets
  • DeVante Parker (Week 4): 21.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 10-110-0, 12 targets
  • Adam Thielen (Week 5): 29.3 PPR, 20.3 STD | 9-80-2, 13 targets | 1-3-0 rushing
  • DeAndre Kirk (Week 7): 24.3 PPR, 14.3 STD | 10-103-1, 12 targets
  • Christian Kirk (Week 7): 20.7 PPR, 15.7 STD | 5-37-2, eight targets
  • Larry Fitzgerald (Week 7): 14.2 PPR, 6.2 STD | 8-62-0, eight targets
  • Brandon Aiyuk (Week 8): 23.1 PPR, 15.1 STD | 8-91-1, 11 targets
  • Kendrick Bourne (Week 8): 16.1 PPR, 8.1 STD | 8-81-0, 10 targets
  • Stefon Diggs (Week 9): 20.8 PPR, 11.8 STD | 9-118-0, 12 targets
  • John Brown (Week 9): 17.9 PPR, 9.9 STD | 8-99-0, 11 targets
  • Gabriel Davis (Week 9): 17.0 PPR, 13.0 STD | 4-70-1, five targets

Look at that list: It’s not just alpha options. No. 3 receivers regularly — and even No. 4 receivers occasionally — go off against the Seahawks.

Follow the flow chart.

Long gone is the Legion of Boom.

Additionally, the Seahawks are dealing with major injury issues in their secondary.

Perimeter cornerback Shaquill Griffin (concussion/hamstring) left Week 7 early and missed Weeks 8-9. He missed Wednesday practice, which suggests he’s unlikely to play this week.

Backup slot cornerback Ugo Amadi (hamstring) also missed Weeks 8-9. He got in a limited practice on Wednesday but is far from certain to play, and Week 1 slot starter Marquise Blair (knee, IR) is already out for the year.

Reynolds could not ask for a better matchup.

To be transparent: I’m betting against the Rams. There’s absolutely no way I’m not taking the Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson in this spot.

For his career, Wilson is 73-56-7 ATS (10.2% ROI) in the regular season.

The Seahawks just endured a 44-34 defeat to the Bills, and Wilson is 24-12-4 ATS (27.8%) off a loss.

As an underdog, Wilson is 23-9-2 ATS (38.4% ROI). Almost all the value he has offered investors throughout his career has come when getting points.

And aside from anything to do with the Seahawks, I generally want to invest in road dogs off a loss, which I think the sports-betting public tends to undervalue. Since 2004 (when our database starts), road dogs off a loss are 764-674-39 ATS (3.4% ROI).

That might not seem great, but over a sample this large, it’s significant. Within Bet Labs, road dogs off a loss have earned an A- grade.

This looks like an angle we can exploit, especially this year, when home-field advantage has been minimized due to COVID-19 restrictions on attendance.

And if you look at the numbers, it turns out that this year has been the most profitable one for this trend. In 2020, road dogs off a loss are 26-15 ATS (22.7% ROI). You can bet on this game at BetMGM.



And last year was the third-most profitable one for this trend: 45-28-5 ATS (18.1% ROI).

Could there be a reason (other than COVID-19) for road dogs off a loss to be especially undervalued over the past two or so years?

Yes.

Going against road dogs off a loss is a square thing to do, and since last year many inexperienced bettors have entered the market as more states have legalized sports speculation. Perhaps, road dogs coming off a loss have recently been undervalued because the market has become less sophisticated with the influx of new money.

Regardless, you don’t need to twist my arm to get me to bet on Wilson in this spot. I expect the Seahawks to score points, which means I also expect the Rams to air it out to try to keep up.

And that could result in an abundance of targets and fantasy points for Reynolds.

In season-long leagues, Reynolds is a very viable bye-week waiver-wire desperation play with upside.

In DFS, Reynolds is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88, SportsGeek and Hodge Models for DraftKings.


Jakeem Grant: Miami Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (48.5 O/U)

Jakeem the Dream follows me on Twitter, it’s no big deal, let’s keep this professional, it’s just another week.

But it’s not really just another week.

IT’S JAKEEM WEEK.

When it comes to projecting college receivers to the NFL, I have a type. The small-and-fast playmaker who produces as a receiver, runner and returner — that’s my guy.

And that’s exactly what Grant was in college and what he has been in the NFL.

A 2016 sixth-rounder, Grant was a returner only as a rookie, but in his second year Grant saw more action as a receiver, and in Weeks 14-17 the Adam Gase-led coaching staff finally gave him more playing time as the No. 4 receiver.

Although he was still stuck behind Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills, in the final month of the 2017 season Grant leveraged his 21% snap rate into 10-188-2 receiving on 16 targets and 2-10-0 rushing.

That might not seem like a lot, but given the limited opportunities Grant had, that production was incredible. In that timeframe, he was literally No. 1 in the NFL with 4.59 yards per route.

In 2018, with the offseason addition of slot receivers Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola, the underutilized Grant was forced into the No. 5 receiver role, but he still had some flashy moments before a Week 10 Achilles injury ended his season: In Week 2, he turned nine snaps into a 2-70-2 receiving performance, and he looked like an All-Pro return man as one of just two players in the NFL that year with touchdowns as both a kick and punt returner.

Last year, Grant again played as the No. 5 receiver before suffering a season-ending ankle injury in Week 12. While he did little as a receiver, he again flashed his all-around playmaking ability with touchdowns as a kick returner and runner.

And now he’s back at it again this year. For most of the season, Grant has been the rotational No. 4 receiver for the Dolphins — but last week the team traded away slot man Isaiah Ford, so Grant played as the No. 3 receiver … and then starter Preston Williams (foot, IR) suffered an injury during the game.

As a result, Grant had a 48% snap rate and hit season-high marks with five targets and four receptions.

Without Williams and Ford this week, Grant could have a snap rate in excess of 60% and maybe 7-8 targets.

The Chargers are No. 14 with a 5.0% pass-defense DVOA, so the matchup is middling, but it’s probable that shutdown corner Casey Hayward Jr. will match up with No. 1 receiver DeVante Parker for much of the game.

As a result, Grant will likely have advantageous matchups against cornerbacks Michael Davis on the perimeter and Tevaughn Campbell in the slot.

I don’t want to oversell Grant’s prospect this week.

The odds are against him. But he has a newfound elevated floor with 8.8, 8.5 and 7.5 DraftKings points over his past three games, and he certainly has the ability to produce peak performances with his elite athleticism.

Since his emergence at the end of 2017, Grant has been at least a high-end WR2 in nine percent of his games.

That’s not a high percentage — but it’s a lot higher than the 0-1% ownership rate he’s likely to have in large-field guaranteed prize pools.

Grant is a deep bye-week flyer in season-long leagues and the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner, Raybon and, yes, Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 4.57 Projected Plus/Minus.


Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some wide receivers I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) at Los Angeles Rams (54.5 O/U): No. 1 cornerback Jalen Ramsey seems like to shadow Metcalf, but the second-year breakout has 100 yards or a touchdown in every game but one. Metcalf is No. 2 with 151.6 AirYAC per game and No. 6 with 11.6 yards per target. Against the Rams and Ramsey last year Metcalf was 6-78-0 receiving on six targets in Week 14.

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills (+2) at Arizona Cardinals (56 O/U): Of all receivers, Diggs is No. 3 with 16.3 expected fantasy points and 10.1 targets per game. The Cardinals might be without starting cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick (thigh) and Byron Murphy (COVID-19) as well as backup corner Kevin Peterson (concussion).

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints (-9) vs. San Francisco 49ers (49 O/U): Home at the Coors Field of Fantasy Football, Thomas could go off against a 49ers defense that might be without seven key players.

  • Edge rusher: Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) & Ziggy Ansah (arm, IR)
  • Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
  • Cornerback: Richard Sherman (calf, IR) & K’Waun Williams (ankle)
  • Safety: Jaquiski Tartt (toe)

Since the 2018 season, Thomas has an elite 30% market share.

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins (48.5 O/U): The Dolphins are No. 8 with a -5.0% pass-defense DVOA, but receiver volume outweighs defensive efficiency. In his six healthy games with Herbert (he exited Week 5 early with a back injury), Allen has dominated.

  • Week 2 (vs. KC): 16.6 PPR, 9.6 STD | 7-96-0, 10 targets
  • Week 3 (vs. CAR): 30.2 PPR, 17.2 STD | 13-132-1, 19 targets
  • Week 4 (at TB): 14.2 PPR, 6.2 STD | 8-62-0, 11 targets
  • Week 7 (vs. JAX): 22.5 PPR, 12.5 STD | 10-125-0, 13 targets
  • Week 8 (at DEN): 21.7 PPR, 12.7 STD | 9-67-1, 11 targets
  • Week 9 (vs. LV): 25.3 PPR, 16.3 STD | 9-103-1, 11 targets

In this diffuse six-week sample, Allen is tied for No. 1 with a 33% target share and tied for No. 2 with a 0.74 WOPR.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (54.5 O/U): Opposing wide receiver units are No. 1 against the Seahawks with 37.6 fantasy points per game on 176-2,236-13 receiving. Kupp is No. 10 at the position with 9.0 targets per game, and he is currently slated to face third-stringer D.J. Reed Jr., who has allowed 13.8 yards per target and an 85.7% catch rate in his two games with the Seahawks.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (-4.5) at Detroit Lions (Off the Board): The drop-off from backup-turned-starter Kyle Allen (ankle, IR) to veteran third-stringer Alex Smith will likely be small to nonexistent, and McLaurin produces regardless of quarterback. McLaurin is No. 2 with a 0.74 WOPR and No. 3 with 140.3 AirYAC per game. The Lions are No. 30 with a 40.6 PFF coverage grade.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns (49 O/U): Even with his supposed injury-proneness, Fuller has either 100 yards or a touchdown in every game this year … aside from his soul-crushing, hamstring-impacted zero-target Week 2.

We ain’t dead yet. Let’s live while we’re still alive.

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (54.5 O/U): See Kupp, Cooper. Woods is a wide receiver in the NFL, and he’s playing the Seahawks. In his six games with the Rams against the Seahawks, Woods is 32-438-2 receiving on 45 targets and 8-107-0 rushing.

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) at Los Angeles Rams (54.5 O/U): Sure, Lockett is just 8-73-0 receiving on 12 targets over the past two weeks. Just ignore that he’s pacing for 1,230 yards and 14 touchdowns on the year. That kind of thing isn’t important. What does it matter that he’s tied for No. 3 at the position with nine end-zone targets?

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (45.5 O/U): Three weeks do not a season make, but Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool have all played the supermajority of snaps since Week 7, and in that time Smith-Schuster leads the team with 9.7 targets, 7.3 receptions and 81.7 yards per game. He also leads the Steelers with 2.01 yards per route over the past three games.

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (45.5 O/U): The high-flying Claypool is top on the team with 2.24 yards per route for the season, and he has six touchdowns in his six games since becoming a regular in three-wide sets. With cornerback Darius Phillips (groin) looking unlikely to play, Claypool is slated for a highly advantageous matchup with backup LeShaun Sims, who has allowed 10.4 yards per target and a 76.5% catch rate this year.

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals (-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (56 O/U): I feel like I have to write a blurb about Kirk because he’s a ridiculous 20-343-6 receiving in five games since returning from injury in Week 4. This is that blurb.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns (49 O/U): Although teammate Will Fuller gets the hype, Cooks is No. 1 on the team with his 23% target share and 0.53 WOPR. In his four games since the firing of HC Bill O’Brien, Cooks is 27-372-3 receiving on 39 targets. Opposing receiver units are No. 5 against the Browns with 29.6 fantasy points per game on 120-1,506-12 receiving.

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos (+4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (50.5 O/U): Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 8, Jeudy is 11-198-1 receiving on 24 targets. He has had underappreciated opportunity and production as a rookie.

The Raiders are No. 31 with a 39.8 PFF coverage grade. Jeudy (shoulder) missed practice on Wednesday, so monitor his injury status throughout the week. Jeudy is the No. 1 receiver in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 10 Air Yards Buy-Low Model.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (45.5 O/U): Since his Week 3 breakout, Higgins is 30-453-3 receiving on 46 targets in six games with a team-high 120.9 AirYAC per game.

Only most of that is a lie.

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers (+5.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5 O/U): Even though he was 2-18-0 receiving on three targets last week, he was 15-334-3 receiving the month before that. Moore is still pacing for this second straight 1,100-yard season, and he and No. 1 wide receiver Robby Anderson have the same number of WR1/2 performances this year (4 PPR, 3 STD).

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (48.5 O/U): He’s no Jakeem Grant, but Parker is fine. He’s slated for a tough matchup with cornerback Casey Hayward Jr., who has allowed a catch rate of just 52.4% since joining the Chargers in 2016, but Parker should see extra targets without teammate Preston Williams (foot, IR).

Sterling Shepard, New York Giants (+3.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (44.5 O/U): I don’t want to write about anyone in the Giants passing game, but duty calls. Since returning from injury in Week 7, Shepard has averaged a team-high 8.7 targets and 6.7 receptions per game. With No. 1 cornerback Darius Slay likely to shadow perimeter playmaker Darius Slayton, the Giants could funnel extra targets to Shepard.

Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers (+5.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5 O/U): Three Panthers receivers? In this economy???

Emmanuel Sanders, New Orleans Saints (-9) vs. San Francisco 49ers (49 O/U): Revenge Game.

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (45.5 O/U): Coming out of the Week 9 bye, perhaps Green’s decrepitly shriveled old-man legs will feel excessively spry.

Richie James, San Francisco 49ers (+9) at New Orleans Saints (49 O/U): No. 1 wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (COVID-19) is returning, but James should still see opportunities after last week’s 9-184-1 receiving performance on 13 targets, especially with teammates Deebo Samuel (hamstring), Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19) and Trent Taylor (back) uncertain to play. James has an elite 12.9 yards per target for his career and is almost certainly a better player than people believe.

I’m not saying James is the second coming of Jerry Rice …

… but I’m also not saying that he isn’t.

Randall Cobb, Houston Texans (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns (49 O/U): Three Panthers Texans receivers? In this economy???

Danny Amendola, Detroit Lions (+4.5) vs. Washington Football Team (Off the Board): No. 1 wide receiver Kenny Golladay (hip) is yet to return to practice so he looks unlikely to play. Without Golladay in Weeks 1-2 & 9, Amendola was No. 1 on the Lions with 24 targets, 14 receptions, 179 yards receiving, 278 AirYAC and a 0.46 WOPR. Be sure to monitor the health status of quarterback Matthew Stafford (concussion).

K.J. Hamler, Denver Broncos (+4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (50.5 O/U): An upside speedster, Hamler has averaged 6.5 targets in his four healthy games, and last week he hit career-high marks with 10 targets, six receptions and 75 yards receiving. In Week 8 the Broncos moved Hamler to the slot, where he now has an excellent matchup with corner Lamarcus Joyner, who has a 73.6% catch rate allowed since the Raiders converted him from safety last year.

David Moore, Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) at Los Angeles Rams (54.5 O/U): I said it last week, it paid off and I’m saying it again this week. Over the past two-plus years, Moore has been a fantasy WR1/2 in 22% of his games, and that percentage will be far higher than his ownership rate in DFS tournaments.

Moore has been highly efficient in his career with 9.4 yards per target and a 9.8% touchdown rate, and of the three Seahawks wide receivers he will face the softest coverage against the Rams.



Matthew Freedman is 728-572-28 (56.0%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Dolphins WR Jakeem Grant
Photo credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

The Week 10 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 1 p.m. ET.

In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models. While the Models are built for daily contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

New NFL DFS Trial Offer: Try our new football subscription for $4.95 and get access to our industry-leading tools and projections.

Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models

There are six wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), Ryan Hodge and I have constructed.

Here’s where they place within our Week 10 fantasy football rankings (as of Thursday afternoon).

  • Davante Adams: No. 1 (PPR) | No. 1 (Half PPR) | No. 1 (STD)
  • DeAndre Hopkins: No. 5 (PPR) | No. 6 (Half PPR) | No. 5 (STD)
  • Robby Anderson: No. 11 (PPR) | No. 10 (Half PPR) | No. 12 (STD)
  • Diontae Johnson: No. 26 (PPR) | No. 28 (Half PPR) | No. 31 (STD)
  • Josh Reynolds: No. 56 (PPR) | No. 55 (Half PPR) | No. 52 (STD)
  • Jakeem Grant: No. 60 (PPR) | No. 60 (Half PPR) | No. 63 (STD)

FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns

Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.


Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.


Davante Adams: Green Bay Packers (-13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (51 Over/Under)

Let’s just get this out of the way: The Jaguars are No. 32 with a 36.5% pass-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). They are bad.

In each of their past four games, they have allowed a 100-yard receiver.

  • Brandin Cooks (Week 5): 30.1 PPR, 22.1 STD | 8-161-1, 12 targets
  • Kenny Golladay (Week 6): 14.5 PPR, 10.5 STD | 4-105-0, six targets
  • Keenan Allen (Week 7): 22.5 PPR, 12.5 STD | 10-125-0, 13 targets
  • Will Fuller (Week 9): 21.0 PPR, 16.0 STD | 5-100-1, five targets

Adams has one of the best matchups of the week.

And that seems especially unfair, because Adams is the NFL’s best wide receiver.

In the post-Jordy Nelson era, Adams has been exceptional: Since 2018, he has been the NFL’s most reliably productive wide receiver on a per-game basis (including postseason).

  • Fantasy Production: 22.0 PPR points (1st) | 14.4 STD points (2nd)
  • Football Production: 95.9 yards (2nd) | 0.80 touchdowns (2nd) | 7.5 receptions (2nd)

Over the past two-plus seasons, Adams is No. 1 with 11.1 targets per game.

On a per-snap basis, he has been a top-five producer (including postseason, per Pro Football Focus).

  • 2020 (six games): 0.50 PPR points (1st) | 0.34 standard points (1st)
  • 2019 (14 games): 0.34 PPR points (2nd) | 0.21 standard points (5th)
  • 2018 (15 games): 0.34 PPR points (3rd) | 0.23 standard points (4th)

This year he is No. 1 with 3.26 yards per route. Last year, he was No. 2 with 2.61.

Even though Adams played just half of Week 2, leaving the game early with a hamstring injury that sidelined him through the Week 5 bye, Adams is still No. 1 at the position with 21.0 expected fantasy points per game (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary) and No. 4 with 153.3 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game.

AirYAC is a leading indicator of fantasy output. You can find it at RotoViz.

Naturally, he’s No. 1 with a 0.79 WOPR.

WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is a stat created by Josh Hermsmeyer. It combines market shares of targets and air yards and is available at AirYards.com.

In his five full games this year, Adams is 50-639-8 receiving on 67 targets.

He is absolutely dominating.

Full disclosure: I’m betting on the Packers.

In only one year — ONE! — has quarterback Aaron Rodgers had a losing record against the spread (ATS) at home in the regular season.

That was 2008, his first season as a starter.

Ever since then, Rodgers at Lambeau Field has been no worse than .500 ATS in any season. For his career, Rodgers at home is an A-graded 55-31-3 ATS, good for a 24.4% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).



You can bet on this game at FanDuel.

The Packers have a slate-high 31.5-point implied Vegas total. Points will abound, and Adams is likely to get more than his fair share.

Adams is a locked-in every-week top-three WR1 in season-long leagues and a strong pay-up play in DFS, especially in cash games. Adams leads all wide receivers in our Models with his median, ceiling and floor projections.

You can use our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool to research the overlapping production of receivers and passers, and over the past year Adams and Rodgers have a 0.65 correlation. For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Adams with his quarterback.

Adams is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Hodge Model for FanDuel.


DeAndre Hopkins: Arizona Cardinals (-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (56 O/U)

Hopkins is having a great season. He’s No. 3 with 7.5 receptions and 91.8 yards per game. On his targets, he has a strong 78.9% catch rate and has gifted to quarterback Kyler Murray a stellar 9.9 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A, per RotoViz AY/A App).

He’s No. 7 with 15.4 expected fantasy points per game, and he has exceeded his baseline with +3.5 fantasy points over expectation. In his first year with the Cardinals, Hopkins has continued to produce like the three-time All-Pro dominator he is.

But I’m approaching Hopkins with caution this week. Not to be an alarmist … but I’m worried. His booming upside is established and known, but his bustable downside might be underappreciated given his recent usage and matchup.

Last week, Hopkins had season-low marks with his 3-30-0 receiving performance on three targets. We shouldn’t make too much a one-game sample, but this isn’t just a onetime thing.

No. 2 wide receiver Christian Kirk missed Week 3 with an injury, and since his return in Week 4 we have seen a clear difference in Hopkins’ usage and production (per RotoViz Game Splits App).

Fewer targets, fewer receptions, fewer yards. Far less fantasy production. In Weeks 1-3, Hopkins had no fewer than nine targets in any game. In Weeks 4-9, he has had more than nine targets just once.

Since Kirk’s return, Hopkins has basically been an on/off switch (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).

I don’t think Kirk is better than Hopkins, but a Weeks 4-9 comparison of the two is instructive.

  • DeAndre Hopkins (Weeks 4-9): 15.6 PPR, 10.0 STD | 28-378-2, 39 targets
  • Christian Kirk (Weeks 4-9): 18.1 PPR, 14.1 STD | 20-343-6, 31 targets

Touchdowns come and go, and Kirk is especially hot right now — but it’s notable that over the past five games Kirk has out-targeted Hopkins in the red zone (10 vs. 5) and the end zone (4 vs. 2, per PFF). It’s not entirely luck that Kirk has more touchdowns since Week 4.

And in terms of targets and yards, Kirk has held his own.

He’s not the No. 1 receiver, but Kirk is enough of a nuisance as a strong No. 2 option to diminish the upside and enhance the downside of Hopkins.

And on top of all of this is the matchup.

Last week, Hopkins was shadowed by Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard, an inconsistent but ballhawking defender with four interceptions on the year, and rather than test Howard, Murray chose to reallocate Hopkins’ would-be opportunities to other players.

Hence, Hopkins’ three targets.

We could see something similar this week, as Hopkins is likely to face 2019 All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White in shadow coverage.

White hasn’t been as good this year, and last week Seahawks wide receivers D.K. Metcalf and David Moore were a combined 4-120-1 receiving on eight targets in his coverage.

But White is still easily the best corner the Bills have, and he has been targeted just 3.5 times per game this year.

With White on Hopkins, Murray might look to throw elsewhere once again.

For what it’s worth, the Bills are in a good situational spot. As road underdogs, the Bills are 7-2-2 ATS (41.4% ROI) in quarterback Josh Allen’s starts.



And road dogs are 3-1 ATS (44.3% ROI) against head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s Cardinals. You can bet on this game at DraftKings. This is a spot where a lot might not go right for Hopkins and his team.

I want to be clear: None of this analysis is meant to cast aspersions at Hopkins. He still has immense talent and a week-winning ceiling. It’s just that now, with his reduced usage and hard matchup, he also has a lowered floor.

Hopkins is a mid-range WR1 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales Model for DraftKings.


Robby Anderson: Carolina Panthers (+5.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5 O/U)

I admit it: Sometimes I send out a tweet just so I can embed it in an article. You got to stack that content.

It might be hard to hear, but Anderson is still the No. 1 receiver in Carolina.

Relative to what he did in Weeks 1-5, Anderson disappointed in Weeks 6-9.

But let’s be real for a minute: Is there anything all that disappointing with a guy who has a 1,000-yard 16-game pace on 8.5 targets per game in a four-week sample?

That’s not bad at all.

Yes, Anderson has been outproduced by D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel over the past month, which is especially notable since Samuel has missed a game.

  • Robby Anderson (Weeks 6-9): 12.3 PPR, 6.3 STD | 24-253-0, 34 targets
  • D.J. Moore (Weeks 6-9): 12.7 PPR, 9.5 STD | 13-259-2, 25 targets
  • Curtis Samuel (Weeks 6-9): 21.6 PPR, 15.3 STD | 19-177-2, 20 targets | 7-41-2 rushing

But even within this sample Anderson has dominated on a per-game basis with his underlying metrics.

  • Robby Anderson (Weeks 6-9): 27% target share | 0.69 WOPR | 116.2 AirYAC
  • D.J. Moore (Weeks 6-9): 21% target share | 0.45 WOPR | 72.3 AirYAC
  • Curtis Samuel (Weeks 6-9): 20% target share | 0.52 WOPR | 98 AirYAC

He had team-high marks just last week with 13 targets and nine receptions. Anderson is still the man.

He has a tough matchup: The Bucs are No. 2 with a -15.0% pass-defense DVOA, and shutdown cornerback Carlton Davis typically shadows dominant perimeter receivers.

You probably already know this, but Davis is good.

But I don’t know if he’ll tail Anderson, since Moore is also a shadow-worthy receiver.

In Week 2 against the Panthers, the Bucs played Davis at left corner, and there’s a decent chance they’ll do that again this week. On that side of the field, Davis is likely to match up most with Anderson, but because the Panthers move him all over the field, including the slot, Anderson should be able to escape Davis’ coverage often enough to put up fantasy points.

Against the Bucs in Week 2, Anderson was 9-109-0 receiving on 10 targets.

Despite the matchup, Anderson could still go off.

From a betting perspective, the Panthers are almost always in play. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is 32-11 ATS (45.7% ROI) for his career, and as an underdog he is 22-5 ATS (59.4% ROI).



Just last week, we saw the underdog Saints take it to the Bucs in a 38-3 victory driven by the passing game, and the Panthers certainly have the receiving weapons to challenge the Bucs pass defense. You can bet on this game at William Hill.

Anderson is a borderline WR1/2 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 option in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high +4.80 Projected Plus/Minus.


Diontae Johnson: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (45.5 O/U)

Johnson has suffered in-game injuries in literally half the games he has played this year.

  • Week 3: Concussion
  • Week 5: Back
  • Week 7: Leg/ankle
  • Week 8: Hamstring

And that doesn’t take into account that he missed Week 6.

But in the five games in which Johnson has played at least 50% of the snaps (Weeks 1-2, Weeks 7-9), he is 30-312-3 receiving with a team-high 52 targets, 26% market share, 0.60 WOPR and 116.6 AirYAC per game.

As Megatron-like as rookie Chase Claypool has been this year, and as 2018-ish as JuJu Smith-Schuster has looked over the past few weeks, Johnson is still the No. 1 receiver for the Steelers.

The Bengals are coming off the bye, so they should be ready for this game, but they are No. 25 with a 19.1% pass-defense DVOA.

Here are the perimeter receivers with six-plus targets against the Bengals this year.

  • Mike Williams (Week 1): 10.9 PPR, 6.9 STD | 4-69-0, nine targets
  • Odell Beckham Jr. (Week 2): 17.4 PPR, 13.4 STD | 4-74-1, six targets
  • D.J. Chark Jr. (Week 4): 29.5 PPR, 21.5 STD | 8-95-2, nine targets
  • Laviska Shenault Jr. (Week 4): 14.1 PPR, 9.1 STD | 5-86-0, six targets | 1-5-0 rushing
  • Marquise Brown (Week 5): 19.8 PPR, 13.8 STD | 6-77-1, 10 targets | 1-1-0 rushing
  • Marcus Johnson (Week 6): 15.8 PPR, 10.8 STD | 5-108-0, eight targets
  • Rashard Higgins (Week 7): 17.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 6-110-0, six targets
  • Corey Davis (Week 8): 26.8 PPR, 18.8 STD | 8-128-1, 10 targets
  • A.J. Brown (Week 8): 12.4 PPR, 8.4 STD | 4-24-1, seven targets

There’s no denying that Johnson is a boom-or-bust receiver.

But if he makes it through the majority of this game, Johnson is likely to get six-plus targets, and if he hits that threshold, he could dominate.

It’s just an added bonus that the Bengals might be without cornerback Darius Phillips (groin), who exited Week 8 early and did not practice on Wednesday off the bye, which bodes poorly for his Week 10 availability.

Johnson is an upside WR2/3 in season-long leagues and the No. 1 wide receiver in the SportsGeek Model for FanDuel.


Josh Reynolds: Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) vs. Seahawks (54.5 O/U)

This is the second time in three weeks Reynolds has topped some of our Models. Finally, we have definitive evidence that existence is a simulation.

In Weeks 1-2, Josh Reynolds out-snapped rookie Van Jefferson, but the team made a concerted effort to funnel opportunities to the new shiny second-rounder, and those came at the expense of the veteran.

  • Josh Reynolds (Weeks 1-2): 79 snaps | 3-50-0, three targets | 50 AirYAC
  • Van Jefferson (Weeks 1-2): 59 snaps | 5-76-0, eight targets | 109 AirYAC

Since then, however, Reynolds has relegated Jefferson to a distant backup.

  • Josh Reynolds (Weeks 3-9): 321 snaps | 19-272-2, 35 targets | 565 AirYAC
  • Van Jefferson (Weeks 3-9): 49 snaps | 4-45-0, six targets | 90 AirYAC

Since Week 3, Reynolds is No. 2 on the team with 94.1 AirYAC and No. 3 with 45.3 yards and 5.8 targets per game. He hasn’t just overtaken Jefferson. He has also overtaken tight ends Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett.

Right now, Reynolds is the true No. 3 receiving option on the Rams.

But really none of that matters. What matters is the matchup.

With a funnel defense that ranks No. 9 against the run (-21.9% DVOA) and No. 29 against the pass (23.4%), the Seahawks are utterly exploitable via the air.

Imagine I’m Matt Damon in Ocean’s Eleven as I say this: The list of guys who have gone off against the Seahawks … well, it’s long.

  • Calvin Ridley (Week 1): 33.9 PPR, 24.9 STD | 9-130-2, 12 targets
  • Julio Jones (Week 1): 24.7 PPR, 15.7 STD | 9-157-0, 12 targets
  • Russell Gage (Week 1): 20.4 PPR, 11.4 STD | 9-114-0, 12 targets
  • Julian Edelman (Week 2): 25.9 PPR, 17.9 STD | 8-179-0, 11 targets
  • N’Keal Harry (Week 2): 15.2 PPR, 7.2 STD | 8-72-0, 12 targets
  • Damiere Byrd (Week 2): 13.2 PPR, 7.2 STD | 6-72-0, nine targets
  • Amari Cooper (Week 3): 17.6 PPR, 8.6 STD | 9-86-0, 12 targets
  • Michael Gallup (Week 3): 25.8 PPR, 19.8 STD | 6-138-1, nine targets
  • CeeDee Lamb (Week 3): 11.6 PPR, 6.6 STD | 5-65-0, six targets
  • Cedrick Wilson (Week 3): 27.7 PPR, 22.7 STD | 5-107-2, seven targets
  • DeVante Parker (Week 4): 21.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 10-110-0, 12 targets
  • Adam Thielen (Week 5): 29.3 PPR, 20.3 STD | 9-80-2, 13 targets | 1-3-0 rushing
  • DeAndre Kirk (Week 7): 24.3 PPR, 14.3 STD | 10-103-1, 12 targets
  • Christian Kirk (Week 7): 20.7 PPR, 15.7 STD | 5-37-2, eight targets
  • Larry Fitzgerald (Week 7): 14.2 PPR, 6.2 STD | 8-62-0, eight targets
  • Brandon Aiyuk (Week 8): 23.1 PPR, 15.1 STD | 8-91-1, 11 targets
  • Kendrick Bourne (Week 8): 16.1 PPR, 8.1 STD | 8-81-0, 10 targets
  • Stefon Diggs (Week 9): 20.8 PPR, 11.8 STD | 9-118-0, 12 targets
  • John Brown (Week 9): 17.9 PPR, 9.9 STD | 8-99-0, 11 targets
  • Gabriel Davis (Week 9): 17.0 PPR, 13.0 STD | 4-70-1, five targets

Look at that list: It’s not just alpha options. No. 3 receivers regularly — and even No. 4 receivers occasionally — go off against the Seahawks.

Follow the flow chart.

Long gone is the Legion of Boom.

Additionally, the Seahawks are dealing with major injury issues in their secondary.

Perimeter cornerback Shaquill Griffin (concussion/hamstring) left Week 7 early and missed Weeks 8-9. He missed Wednesday practice, which suggests he’s unlikely to play this week.

Backup slot cornerback Ugo Amadi (hamstring) also missed Weeks 8-9. He got in a limited practice on Wednesday but is far from certain to play, and Week 1 slot starter Marquise Blair (knee, IR) is already out for the year.

Reynolds could not ask for a better matchup.

To be transparent: I’m betting against the Rams. There’s absolutely no way I’m not taking the Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson in this spot.

For his career, Wilson is 73-56-7 ATS (10.2% ROI) in the regular season.

The Seahawks just endured a 44-34 defeat to the Bills, and Wilson is 24-12-4 ATS (27.8%) off a loss.

As an underdog, Wilson is 23-9-2 ATS (38.4% ROI). Almost all the value he has offered investors throughout his career has come when getting points.

And aside from anything to do with the Seahawks, I generally want to invest in road dogs off a loss, which I think the sports-betting public tends to undervalue. Since 2004 (when our database starts), road dogs off a loss are 764-674-39 ATS (3.4% ROI).

That might not seem great, but over a sample this large, it’s significant. Within Bet Labs, road dogs off a loss have earned an A- grade.

This looks like an angle we can exploit, especially this year, when home-field advantage has been minimized due to COVID-19 restrictions on attendance.

And if you look at the numbers, it turns out that this year has been the most profitable one for this trend. In 2020, road dogs off a loss are 26-15 ATS (22.7% ROI). You can bet on this game at BetMGM.



And last year was the third-most profitable one for this trend: 45-28-5 ATS (18.1% ROI).

Could there be a reason (other than COVID-19) for road dogs off a loss to be especially undervalued over the past two or so years?

Yes.

Going against road dogs off a loss is a square thing to do, and since last year many inexperienced bettors have entered the market as more states have legalized sports speculation. Perhaps, road dogs coming off a loss have recently been undervalued because the market has become less sophisticated with the influx of new money.

Regardless, you don’t need to twist my arm to get me to bet on Wilson in this spot. I expect the Seahawks to score points, which means I also expect the Rams to air it out to try to keep up.

And that could result in an abundance of targets and fantasy points for Reynolds.

In season-long leagues, Reynolds is a very viable bye-week waiver-wire desperation play with upside.

In DFS, Reynolds is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88, SportsGeek and Hodge Models for DraftKings.


Jakeem Grant: Miami Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (48.5 O/U)

Jakeem the Dream follows me on Twitter, it’s no big deal, let’s keep this professional, it’s just another week.

But it’s not really just another week.

IT’S JAKEEM WEEK.

When it comes to projecting college receivers to the NFL, I have a type. The small-and-fast playmaker who produces as a receiver, runner and returner — that’s my guy.

And that’s exactly what Grant was in college and what he has been in the NFL.

A 2016 sixth-rounder, Grant was a returner only as a rookie, but in his second year Grant saw more action as a receiver, and in Weeks 14-17 the Adam Gase-led coaching staff finally gave him more playing time as the No. 4 receiver.

Although he was still stuck behind Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills, in the final month of the 2017 season Grant leveraged his 21% snap rate into 10-188-2 receiving on 16 targets and 2-10-0 rushing.

That might not seem like a lot, but given the limited opportunities Grant had, that production was incredible. In that timeframe, he was literally No. 1 in the NFL with 4.59 yards per route.

In 2018, with the offseason addition of slot receivers Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola, the underutilized Grant was forced into the No. 5 receiver role, but he still had some flashy moments before a Week 10 Achilles injury ended his season: In Week 2, he turned nine snaps into a 2-70-2 receiving performance, and he looked like an All-Pro return man as one of just two players in the NFL that year with touchdowns as both a kick and punt returner.

Last year, Grant again played as the No. 5 receiver before suffering a season-ending ankle injury in Week 12. While he did little as a receiver, he again flashed his all-around playmaking ability with touchdowns as a kick returner and runner.

And now he’s back at it again this year. For most of the season, Grant has been the rotational No. 4 receiver for the Dolphins — but last week the team traded away slot man Isaiah Ford, so Grant played as the No. 3 receiver … and then starter Preston Williams (foot, IR) suffered an injury during the game.

As a result, Grant had a 48% snap rate and hit season-high marks with five targets and four receptions.

Without Williams and Ford this week, Grant could have a snap rate in excess of 60% and maybe 7-8 targets.

The Chargers are No. 14 with a 5.0% pass-defense DVOA, so the matchup is middling, but it’s probable that shutdown corner Casey Hayward Jr. will match up with No. 1 receiver DeVante Parker for much of the game.

As a result, Grant will likely have advantageous matchups against cornerbacks Michael Davis on the perimeter and Tevaughn Campbell in the slot.

I don’t want to oversell Grant’s prospect this week.

The odds are against him. But he has a newfound elevated floor with 8.8, 8.5 and 7.5 DraftKings points over his past three games, and he certainly has the ability to produce peak performances with his elite athleticism.

Since his emergence at the end of 2017, Grant has been at least a high-end WR2 in nine percent of his games.

That’s not a high percentage — but it’s a lot higher than the 0-1% ownership rate he’s likely to have in large-field guaranteed prize pools.

Grant is a deep bye-week flyer in season-long leagues and the No. 1 wide receiver in the Koerner, Raybon and, yes, Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 4.57 Projected Plus/Minus.


Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside

In this section, I highlight some wide receivers I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) at Los Angeles Rams (54.5 O/U): No. 1 cornerback Jalen Ramsey seems like to shadow Metcalf, but the second-year breakout has 100 yards or a touchdown in every game but one. Metcalf is No. 2 with 151.6 AirYAC per game and No. 6 with 11.6 yards per target. Against the Rams and Ramsey last year Metcalf was 6-78-0 receiving on six targets in Week 14.

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills (+2) at Arizona Cardinals (56 O/U): Of all receivers, Diggs is No. 3 with 16.3 expected fantasy points and 10.1 targets per game. The Cardinals might be without starting cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick (thigh) and Byron Murphy (COVID-19) as well as backup corner Kevin Peterson (concussion).

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints (-9) vs. San Francisco 49ers (49 O/U): Home at the Coors Field of Fantasy Football, Thomas could go off against a 49ers defense that might be without seven key players.

  • Edge rusher: Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) & Ziggy Ansah (arm, IR)
  • Defensive tackle: Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
  • Cornerback: Richard Sherman (calf, IR) & K’Waun Williams (ankle)
  • Safety: Jaquiski Tartt (toe)

Since the 2018 season, Thomas has an elite 30% market share.

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins (48.5 O/U): The Dolphins are No. 8 with a -5.0% pass-defense DVOA, but receiver volume outweighs defensive efficiency. In his six healthy games with Herbert (he exited Week 5 early with a back injury), Allen has dominated.

  • Week 2 (vs. KC): 16.6 PPR, 9.6 STD | 7-96-0, 10 targets
  • Week 3 (vs. CAR): 30.2 PPR, 17.2 STD | 13-132-1, 19 targets
  • Week 4 (at TB): 14.2 PPR, 6.2 STD | 8-62-0, 11 targets
  • Week 7 (vs. JAX): 22.5 PPR, 12.5 STD | 10-125-0, 13 targets
  • Week 8 (at DEN): 21.7 PPR, 12.7 STD | 9-67-1, 11 targets
  • Week 9 (vs. LV): 25.3 PPR, 16.3 STD | 9-103-1, 11 targets

In this diffuse six-week sample, Allen is tied for No. 1 with a 33% target share and tied for No. 2 with a 0.74 WOPR.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (54.5 O/U): Opposing wide receiver units are No. 1 against the Seahawks with 37.6 fantasy points per game on 176-2,236-13 receiving. Kupp is No. 10 at the position with 9.0 targets per game, and he is currently slated to face third-stringer D.J. Reed Jr., who has allowed 13.8 yards per target and an 85.7% catch rate in his two games with the Seahawks.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (-4.5) at Detroit Lions (Off the Board): The drop-off from backup-turned-starter Kyle Allen (ankle, IR) to veteran third-stringer Alex Smith will likely be small to nonexistent, and McLaurin produces regardless of quarterback. McLaurin is No. 2 with a 0.74 WOPR and No. 3 with 140.3 AirYAC per game. The Lions are No. 30 with a 40.6 PFF coverage grade.

Will Fuller, Houston Texans (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns (49 O/U): Even with his supposed injury-proneness, Fuller has either 100 yards or a touchdown in every game this year … aside from his soul-crushing, hamstring-impacted zero-target Week 2.

We ain’t dead yet. Let’s live while we’re still alive.

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (54.5 O/U): See Kupp, Cooper. Woods is a wide receiver in the NFL, and he’s playing the Seahawks. In his six games with the Rams against the Seahawks, Woods is 32-438-2 receiving on 45 targets and 8-107-0 rushing.

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) at Los Angeles Rams (54.5 O/U): Sure, Lockett is just 8-73-0 receiving on 12 targets over the past two weeks. Just ignore that he’s pacing for 1,230 yards and 14 touchdowns on the year. That kind of thing isn’t important. What does it matter that he’s tied for No. 3 at the position with nine end-zone targets?

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (45.5 O/U): Three weeks do not a season make, but Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool have all played the supermajority of snaps since Week 7, and in that time Smith-Schuster leads the team with 9.7 targets, 7.3 receptions and 81.7 yards per game. He also leads the Steelers with 2.01 yards per route over the past three games.

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (45.5 O/U): The high-flying Claypool is top on the team with 2.24 yards per route for the season, and he has six touchdowns in his six games since becoming a regular in three-wide sets. With cornerback Darius Phillips (groin) looking unlikely to play, Claypool is slated for a highly advantageous matchup with backup LeShaun Sims, who has allowed 10.4 yards per target and a 76.5% catch rate this year.

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals (-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (56 O/U): I feel like I have to write a blurb about Kirk because he’s a ridiculous 20-343-6 receiving in five games since returning from injury in Week 4. This is that blurb.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns (49 O/U): Although teammate Will Fuller gets the hype, Cooks is No. 1 on the team with his 23% target share and 0.53 WOPR. In his four games since the firing of HC Bill O’Brien, Cooks is 27-372-3 receiving on 39 targets. Opposing receiver units are No. 5 against the Browns with 29.6 fantasy points per game on 120-1,506-12 receiving.

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos (+4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (50.5 O/U): Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 8, Jeudy is 11-198-1 receiving on 24 targets. He has had underappreciated opportunity and production as a rookie.

The Raiders are No. 31 with a 39.8 PFF coverage grade. Jeudy (shoulder) missed practice on Wednesday, so monitor his injury status throughout the week. Jeudy is the No. 1 receiver in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Week 10 Air Yards Buy-Low Model.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (45.5 O/U): Since his Week 3 breakout, Higgins is 30-453-3 receiving on 46 targets in six games with a team-high 120.9 AirYAC per game.

Only most of that is a lie.

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers (+5.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5 O/U): Even though he was 2-18-0 receiving on three targets last week, he was 15-334-3 receiving the month before that. Moore is still pacing for this second straight 1,100-yard season, and he and No. 1 wide receiver Robby Anderson have the same number of WR1/2 performances this year (4 PPR, 3 STD).

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (48.5 O/U): He’s no Jakeem Grant, but Parker is fine. He’s slated for a tough matchup with cornerback Casey Hayward Jr., who has allowed a catch rate of just 52.4% since joining the Chargers in 2016, but Parker should see extra targets without teammate Preston Williams (foot, IR).

Sterling Shepard, New York Giants (+3.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (44.5 O/U): I don’t want to write about anyone in the Giants passing game, but duty calls. Since returning from injury in Week 7, Shepard has averaged a team-high 8.7 targets and 6.7 receptions per game. With No. 1 cornerback Darius Slay likely to shadow perimeter playmaker Darius Slayton, the Giants could funnel extra targets to Shepard.

Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers (+5.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5 O/U): Three Panthers receivers? In this economy???

Emmanuel Sanders, New Orleans Saints (-9) vs. San Francisco 49ers (49 O/U): Revenge Game.

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (45.5 O/U): Coming out of the Week 9 bye, perhaps Green’s decrepitly shriveled old-man legs will feel excessively spry.

Richie James, San Francisco 49ers (+9) at New Orleans Saints (49 O/U): No. 1 wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (COVID-19) is returning, but James should still see opportunities after last week’s 9-184-1 receiving performance on 13 targets, especially with teammates Deebo Samuel (hamstring), Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19) and Trent Taylor (back) uncertain to play. James has an elite 12.9 yards per target for his career and is almost certainly a better player than people believe.

I’m not saying James is the second coming of Jerry Rice …

… but I’m also not saying that he isn’t.

Randall Cobb, Houston Texans (+3.5) at Cleveland Browns (49 O/U): Three Panthers Texans receivers? In this economy???

Danny Amendola, Detroit Lions (+4.5) vs. Washington Football Team (Off the Board): No. 1 wide receiver Kenny Golladay (hip) is yet to return to practice so he looks unlikely to play. Without Golladay in Weeks 1-2 & 9, Amendola was No. 1 on the Lions with 24 targets, 14 receptions, 179 yards receiving, 278 AirYAC and a 0.46 WOPR. Be sure to monitor the health status of quarterback Matthew Stafford (concussion).

K.J. Hamler, Denver Broncos (+4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (50.5 O/U): An upside speedster, Hamler has averaged 6.5 targets in his four healthy games, and last week he hit career-high marks with 10 targets, six receptions and 75 yards receiving. In Week 8 the Broncos moved Hamler to the slot, where he now has an excellent matchup with corner Lamarcus Joyner, who has a 73.6% catch rate allowed since the Raiders converted him from safety last year.

David Moore, Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) at Los Angeles Rams (54.5 O/U): I said it last week, it paid off and I’m saying it again this week. Over the past two-plus years, Moore has been a fantasy WR1/2 in 22% of his games, and that percentage will be far higher than his ownership rate in DFS tournaments.

Moore has been highly efficient in his career with 9.4 yards per target and a 9.8% touchdown rate, and of the three Seahawks wide receivers he will face the softest coverage against the Rams.



Matthew Freedman is 728-572-28 (56.0%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.

Pictured above: Dolphins WR Jakeem Grant
Photo credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images