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NFL Preseason Fantasy Breakdown (Mon. 8/20): Defense Wins Preseason GPPs

Monday Night Football kicks off at 8:00 p.m. ET. Starters played 1-2 series last week, but tonight we should see them for about a quarter (maybe more), second-stringers for about two quarters and third-stringers and all the rest for the remainder. In many cases, we can rely on the usage from Week 1 to give us a sense of the current depth charts and ways in which players are likely to be used now.

If you haven’t played preseason daily fantasy before, check out preseason sharp Sean Newsham’s five DFS guidelines for dominating the NFL preseason as well as the “Daily Fantasy Flex” episode in which he and Matthew Freedman break down the secrets of the preseason schedule.

For more guidance, see our industry-leading Models, which contain preseason player projections for subscribers. If you’re a redraft player, check out our FREE standard and point-per-reception rankings as well in-house oddsmaker Sean Koerner’s season-long player projections.

Be sure to keep an eye out for late-breaking news on player availability before lineups lock.


>> For a LIMITED TIME, get Action Network PRO for just $3.99/mo

Quarterbacks

Jacoby Brissett (Colts): It’d be surprising to see more than a quarter or so from Andrew Luck. This is good news for Brissett, who displayed dual-threat ability last season by ranking among the league’s top six quarterbacks in both rush attempts (63) and touchdowns on the ground (4). We won’t confuse Brissett for Luck as a passer, but the third-year quarterback did throw for 300+ yards or multiple touchdowns in four starts last season. Per our NFL Trends tool, Brissett averaged more DraftKings points per game (PPG) with a higher Consistency Rating at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Lamar Jackson (Ravens): Jackson’s struggles as a passer have offered credence to pre-draft pundits who didn’t believe he could make NFL-level throws, but he’s at least shown a willingness to test defenses both down the field and in the red zone. The No. 32 overall pick could benefit from a step down in competition Monday night: The Bears (HOF) and Rams (Week 1) each ranked among the league’s top eight defenses in fewest DraftKings PPG allowed to quarterbacks last season; the Colts ranked 25th. Even if Jackson’s struggles through the air continue, he always offers high-level fantasy-friendly ability as a rusher.


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Running Backs

Nyheim Hines (Colts): There’s an abundance of available opportunity in the Colts’ injury-riddled backfield.

  • Projected starter Marlon Mack (hamstring) is considered week-to-week
  • Short-yardage back Robert Turbin (ankle) is suspended until Week 5
  • Second-year Josh Ferguson (hamstring) has missed the majority of camp

Enter Hines. The Colts’ electric fourth-round pick is a capable receiver and running back equipped with a blazing 4.38-second 40-yard dash. Reports have indicated that Hines has struggled to impress in training camp, but the team’s lack of resources in the backfield could at least lead to a decent workload Monday night. The 5-foot-8 and 198-pound former track star posted a 89-933-1 receiving line during his three years at NC State.

Gus Edwards (Ravens): Alex Collins appears poised to work as the Ravens’ early-down back, with Buck Allen likely soaking up plenty of passing-down work. This established backfield, along with a hobbled Kenneth Dixon (hamstring), has ceded 22 total rush attempts to Edwards over the team’s first two preseason games. Gus ‘The Bus’ possesses a solid size (6-feet-1, 229 pounds) and speed (4.57-second 40-yard dash) combination that could be put to use often against a Colts defense that ranked 27th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average last season.

Wide Receivers

Breshad Perriman (Ravens): It’s probably not too early to call Perriman a first-round bust, but that doesn’t mean he’s incapable of turning in a big preseason performance. The 6-foot-2 and 212-pound speed-demon flashed a 3-71-1 line last week, and Perriman should theoretically continue to see additional snaps considering he remains firmly on the roster bubble. A single receiver doesn’t typically see more than a few targets in any preseason game, so it’s probably a good idea to target the ones capable of scoring from anywhere on the field.

Chester Rogers (Colts): T.Y. Hilton and Ryan Grant are atop the depth chart, but Rogers will work with the first team in three-wide sets. He’s also in play to see additional snaps if teammates Krishawn Hogan (foot) and James Wright (knee) are unable to suit up. The third-year receiver doesn’t have elite athleticism or a sterling history of production, but Rogers does possess plenty of familiarity with the offense and a quarterback-friendly route-running ability. Overall, he ranked third in average yards of separation per target in 2017 (PlayerProfiler).

Tight End

Erik Swoope (Colts): Luck and the Colts threw the fourth-most touchdowns to tight ends from 2012 to 2016. This should help Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron (ankle, questionable) come September, but tonight it might most benefit Swoope. The former collegiate basketball player stands 6-feet-5 and weighs 257 pounds. Swoope has enough speed to challenge defenses down the seam, and he averaged an impressive 19.8 yards per reception in 2016. While he missed all of last season with a knee injury, Swoope has reportedly balled out in training camp. He could see additional snaps with Luck under center if Ebron is ruled out.

Defense

The Ravens were defensively better than the Colts by just about every available metric last season, and there isn’t reason to expect much of a difference in 2018. Still, rostering both defenses makes sense in a single-game preseason slate. From Newsham’s preseason strategy piece:

In the preseason, defenses are far more valuable and predictable than they are during the regular season, when the best offensive players see the vast majority of snaps. In the preseason, because teams cycle through offensive units, the only ‘players’ who earn stats throughout an entire game are defenses (and sometimes kickers). On top of that, scores are lower in the preseason, which results in higher fantasy scoring for defenses. For instance, in Week 1 of the preseason, not one game has an over/under of more than 37 points. But for Week 1 of the regular season, every game has a total of at least 41 points.

Kicker

Kickers are typically reliable options in one-game preseason slates thanks to minimal competition and four-quarter workloads. This isn’t the case tonight, though, as Justin Tucker and Adam Vinatieri split reps with their backups last week. Exposure to both should be limited due to their uncertain playing time.

Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured above: Maurice Canady and Eric Weddle

Monday Night Football kicks off at 8:00 p.m. ET. Starters played 1-2 series last week, but tonight we should see them for about a quarter (maybe more), second-stringers for about two quarters and third-stringers and all the rest for the remainder. In many cases, we can rely on the usage from Week 1 to give us a sense of the current depth charts and ways in which players are likely to be used now.

If you haven’t played preseason daily fantasy before, check out preseason sharp Sean Newsham’s five DFS guidelines for dominating the NFL preseason as well as the “Daily Fantasy Flex” episode in which he and Matthew Freedman break down the secrets of the preseason schedule.

For more guidance, see our industry-leading Models, which contain preseason player projections for subscribers. If you’re a redraft player, check out our FREE standard and point-per-reception rankings as well in-house oddsmaker Sean Koerner’s season-long player projections.

Be sure to keep an eye out for late-breaking news on player availability before lineups lock.


>> For a LIMITED TIME, get Action Network PRO for just $3.99/mo

Quarterbacks

Jacoby Brissett (Colts): It’d be surprising to see more than a quarter or so from Andrew Luck. This is good news for Brissett, who displayed dual-threat ability last season by ranking among the league’s top six quarterbacks in both rush attempts (63) and touchdowns on the ground (4). We won’t confuse Brissett for Luck as a passer, but the third-year quarterback did throw for 300+ yards or multiple touchdowns in four starts last season. Per our NFL Trends tool, Brissett averaged more DraftKings points per game (PPG) with a higher Consistency Rating at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Lamar Jackson (Ravens): Jackson’s struggles as a passer have offered credence to pre-draft pundits who didn’t believe he could make NFL-level throws, but he’s at least shown a willingness to test defenses both down the field and in the red zone. The No. 32 overall pick could benefit from a step down in competition Monday night: The Bears (HOF) and Rams (Week 1) each ranked among the league’s top eight defenses in fewest DraftKings PPG allowed to quarterbacks last season; the Colts ranked 25th. Even if Jackson’s struggles through the air continue, he always offers high-level fantasy-friendly ability as a rusher.


>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest NFL conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.


Running Backs

Nyheim Hines (Colts): There’s an abundance of available opportunity in the Colts’ injury-riddled backfield.

  • Projected starter Marlon Mack (hamstring) is considered week-to-week
  • Short-yardage back Robert Turbin (ankle) is suspended until Week 5
  • Second-year Josh Ferguson (hamstring) has missed the majority of camp

Enter Hines. The Colts’ electric fourth-round pick is a capable receiver and running back equipped with a blazing 4.38-second 40-yard dash. Reports have indicated that Hines has struggled to impress in training camp, but the team’s lack of resources in the backfield could at least lead to a decent workload Monday night. The 5-foot-8 and 198-pound former track star posted a 89-933-1 receiving line during his three years at NC State.

Gus Edwards (Ravens): Alex Collins appears poised to work as the Ravens’ early-down back, with Buck Allen likely soaking up plenty of passing-down work. This established backfield, along with a hobbled Kenneth Dixon (hamstring), has ceded 22 total rush attempts to Edwards over the team’s first two preseason games. Gus ‘The Bus’ possesses a solid size (6-feet-1, 229 pounds) and speed (4.57-second 40-yard dash) combination that could be put to use often against a Colts defense that ranked 27th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average last season.

Wide Receivers

Breshad Perriman (Ravens): It’s probably not too early to call Perriman a first-round bust, but that doesn’t mean he’s incapable of turning in a big preseason performance. The 6-foot-2 and 212-pound speed-demon flashed a 3-71-1 line last week, and Perriman should theoretically continue to see additional snaps considering he remains firmly on the roster bubble. A single receiver doesn’t typically see more than a few targets in any preseason game, so it’s probably a good idea to target the ones capable of scoring from anywhere on the field.

Chester Rogers (Colts): T.Y. Hilton and Ryan Grant are atop the depth chart, but Rogers will work with the first team in three-wide sets. He’s also in play to see additional snaps if teammates Krishawn Hogan (foot) and James Wright (knee) are unable to suit up. The third-year receiver doesn’t have elite athleticism or a sterling history of production, but Rogers does possess plenty of familiarity with the offense and a quarterback-friendly route-running ability. Overall, he ranked third in average yards of separation per target in 2017 (PlayerProfiler).

Tight End

Erik Swoope (Colts): Luck and the Colts threw the fourth-most touchdowns to tight ends from 2012 to 2016. This should help Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron (ankle, questionable) come September, but tonight it might most benefit Swoope. The former collegiate basketball player stands 6-feet-5 and weighs 257 pounds. Swoope has enough speed to challenge defenses down the seam, and he averaged an impressive 19.8 yards per reception in 2016. While he missed all of last season with a knee injury, Swoope has reportedly balled out in training camp. He could see additional snaps with Luck under center if Ebron is ruled out.

Defense

The Ravens were defensively better than the Colts by just about every available metric last season, and there isn’t reason to expect much of a difference in 2018. Still, rostering both defenses makes sense in a single-game preseason slate. From Newsham’s preseason strategy piece:

In the preseason, defenses are far more valuable and predictable than they are during the regular season, when the best offensive players see the vast majority of snaps. In the preseason, because teams cycle through offensive units, the only ‘players’ who earn stats throughout an entire game are defenses (and sometimes kickers). On top of that, scores are lower in the preseason, which results in higher fantasy scoring for defenses. For instance, in Week 1 of the preseason, not one game has an over/under of more than 37 points. But for Week 1 of the regular season, every game has a total of at least 41 points.

Kicker

Kickers are typically reliable options in one-game preseason slates thanks to minimal competition and four-quarter workloads. This isn’t the case tonight, though, as Justin Tucker and Adam Vinatieri split reps with their backups last week. Exposure to both should be limited due to their uncertain playing time.

Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured above: Maurice Canady and Eric Weddle