For three weeks, the football gawds have been good. Points have rained upon us like manna descending from fantasy heaven. And now, in Week 4, the bye has arrived: Taking their day of rest this weekend will be the Panthers and Redskins.

No Cam Newton. No Alex Smith. No problem. We still have a robust 12-game main slate that kicks off on Sunday, Sept. 30 at 1 p.m. ET. Let’s break it down.

For analysis on the smaller slates, consult Chris Raybon’s premium strategy guides (released throughout the week).

In writing this piece, I’ve relied primarily on the FantasyLabs Models. This breakdown is less of a comprehensive analysis of each quarterback and more of an introduction to this week’s players via our large suite of analytic DFS Tools. We’ll start with the three quarterbacks at the top of the salary scale, follow with four passers at the top of our individual Pro Models and finish with the rest of the slate’s starting quarterbacks.

For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.


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Jump to: The Priciest QBs | At the Top of Our Models | Rundown of the Rest

Highest-Priced Quarterbacks

Three quarterbacks are at the top of the salary scale this week.

  • Aaron Rodgers: $6,800 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel
  • Tom Brady: $6,700 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel
  • Drew Brees: $6,600 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel

Aaron Rodgers: Green Bay Packers (-10) vs. Buffalo Bills, 45.5 Over/Under

UPDATE (9/30): Wide receiver Randall Cobb (hamstring) was added to the injury report in the middle of the week and missed the Saturday practice. He is a true game-time decision.

Rodgers sustained a first-half knee injury in the season opener, and although he was inspiring in returning after halftime to lead the Packers to a classic fourth-quarter Week 1 comeback, he was clearly a lesser version of himself in Weeks 2 and 3.

  • Week 2 (vs. Vikings): 16.0 DraftKings points, -3.29 Plus/Minus, 30-of-42 passing, 281 yards, one touchdown
  • Week 3 (at Redskins): 19.9 DraftKings points, -0.18 Plus/Minus, 27-of-44 passing, 265 yards, two touchdowns

For reference: From 2014-17, Rodgers averaged 23.0 DraftKings points per game with a +1.28 Plus/Minus. During that time, he averaged 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A); over the last two weeks, he’s had a 7.1. Granted, he had tough matchups against a Vikings defense that has limited him under head coach Mike Zimmer (-2.60 DraftKings Plus/Minus, 14.3% Consistency Rating) and a Redskins defense that ranks third with a Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 83.5 — but Rodgers’ matchup against the Bills might not be easy, either.

The Bills entered Week 3 dead last in pass defense with a 57.7% mark in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, then they pulled off the NFL’s biggest upset since 1995, winning as +16.5 road dogs while holding Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins to a pitiful 4.9 AY/A on 55 attempts. The Bills had four sacks and 33 hurries, and recovered two of the three Cousins fumbles they forced. Under second-year head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills enter Week 4 with the league’s 11th-highest PFF coverage grade (75.4), which probably isn’t a fluke. An all-conference safety in college, McDermott oversaw Panthers defenses that were top-10 against the pass before joining the Bills. And last year, the Bills were tied for sixth with a 91.2 PFF coverage grade, led by shutdown first-round rookie cornerback Tre’Davious White (90.1) and safeties Jordan Poyer (90.9) and Micah Hyde (90.4).

As laughable as they seemed heading into Week 3, the Bills are not a team for the Packers to take lightly.

Even so, Rodgers has usually been productive even when hampered, and he’ll be another week removed from sustaining the injury when he suits up on Sunday. Working in his favor are two factors: The Packers are at home, and they are among the biggest favorites on the slate. A Lambeau Field-loving front-runner, Rodgers has significant home/road and favorite/dog splits, performing his absolute best as a home favorite since becoming a starter, averaging 27.8 fantasy points across 68 games.

As was the case last week, Rodgers is likely to have an almost nonexistent ownership rate: In the DraftKings Millionaire Maker, Rodgers was owned at less than 1%, and there’s little reason to expect he’ll be more popular now, especially with his high salary and recent form. But Rodgers is always capable of a big performance — he has eight games of three-plus touchdowns over his past 16 starts — so he warrants consideration as a Shibboleth-esque contrarian play.

Aaron-Rodgers

Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

If you roster Rodgers, use our Lineup Builder to stack him with wide receiver Davante Adams, who leads the league with 25 touchdowns receiving since 2016. Last week they were rostered together in just 0.05% of Milly Maker lineups. Since 2014, NFL quarterbacks on average have had 0.48 correlations with their top wide receivers. With Adams, Rodgers has a personal-high 0.61 mark.

He’s not without risk, but Rodgers has position-high median and floor projections in our Models.

Tom Brady: New England Patriots (-6.5) vs. Miami Dolphins, 47.5 O/U

Tom might be able to conquer time, but the Pats have lost two games in a row, and the reigning league MVP has looked like anything but to open the season. Compare his recent per-game performance with that of post-suspension, regular-season Angry Tom from 2016-17.

  • 2016-17 (28 games): 21.9 DraftKings points, 290.4 yards and 2.14 touchdowns passing, 0.36 interceptions
  • 2018 (three games): 16.1 DraftKings points, 214.7 yards and two touchdowns passing, 0.67 interceptions

After leading the league last year with 581 pass attempts and 4,577 yards passing, Brady has failed to hit the 300-yard mark in each of his first three games. Brady’s 2018 DraftKings Plus/Minus of -3.35 is terrifying. At the age of 41, Brady finally might be slowing down. Of course, maybe Brady and the Pats are simply enduring their annual September struggles.

Regardless, Brady is in a decent spot this week. Even though the Dolphins are 3-0, they have PFF’s 24th-ranked coverage grade at 60.1. Cornerback Xavien Howard is playing well as the team’s top cover man (70.4). A 2016 second-round pick, he trails only Morris Claiborne (16.8) and Patrick Peterson (26.0) with his allowed QB Rating of just 32.2, holding quarterbacks to five receptions on 15 targets and 125 coverage snaps. Howard is tied for the league lead with three interceptions, but he’s just one player — and the Dolphins don’t have another defender with a coverage grade of at least 70. The Dolphins pass defense is probably exploitable. Last year Miami allowed a league-high 94 receptions to tight ends and were the only team to forfeit a 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown season to the position. With tight end Rob Gronkowski healthy and in a good matchup, Brady could thrive.

Additionally, the Pats are at home. And while Brady doesn’t have big home/away splits for his career, in the Gronk era (since 2010), Gillette Stadium has been a points-friendly venue in Brady’s starts with an A-graded 41-23-0 over/under record, good for a 27.8% return on investment for over bettors (per BetLabs). Not once in that span has the Gillette over had a losing season.

The Pats are no longer the No. 1 team in The Action Network Power Rankings, but they’re still good enough to score points against the Dolphins, especially if wide receiver Josh Gordon (hamstring) makes his Patriots debut and plays regular snaps.

Tom-Brady

Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports

It’s easy to look at Brady, his recent performance and his depleted receiving unit and think that the Pats are finally on the decline. That could be an overreaction. When quarterbacks reach the end, they tend to implode instead of fade away — think of Peyton Manning in the middle of 2014 — and it’s possible that what we’re seeing now out of Brady is his career-ending implosion. But I would bet against it. In 2014, the Pats started out 2-2. In Week 4, they were destroyed by the Chiefs, 41-14. Brady entered October with a 59.1% completion rate and an average of 197.8 yards and one touchdown per game. Then that February, the Pats won the Super Bowl.

If you’re going to roster Brady, it’s best to do it early in the season, before he’s worn down. Since 2014, Brady has been a radically different player in the first and second halves of the year.

  • Brady in Weeks 1-9 (31 games): 27.9 fantasy points, 305.3 yards and 2.48 touchdowns passing, 0.26 interceptions
  • Weeks 10-17 (31 games): 21.5 fantasy points, 259.6 yards and 1.84 touchdowns passing, 0.61 interceptions

Given that Brady is likely to have a low ownership rate, he warrants strategic tournament exposure.

Drew Brees: New Orleans Saints (-3) at New York Giants, 50 O/U

Since joining the Saints in 2006, Brees has easily been his best at the Coors Field of fantasy football, also known as the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Related, throughout his career, Brees has been far better in a dome than outdoors.

  • Brees in a dome (122 games): 69.4%, 311.1 yards, 8.2 AY/A
  • Outdoors (121 games): 64.7%, 251.5 yards, 7.0 AY/A

Yet despite that Brees is on the road and outdoors in New York, he’s still in play this week.

Drew-Brees

Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Even when Brees completed an NFL-record 72.0% of his passes last season, people thought he had a bad year because he attempted only 33.5 passes per game and threw touchdowns on only 4.3% of his passes. Those are Brees’ lowest with the Saints. He entered the season with less hype than usual, but he was a clear candidate to progress in 2018.

And progress he has. Brees has averaged 43 pass attempts through three games and enhanced his touchdown rate to 6.2%. He leads the league with his 80.6% completion rate and 104 completions and is third with 1,078 yards passing. And as of last week, he is the NFL career completions leader with 6,326 — to go along with his league-best 67.1% career completion rate. He’s a mere 418 yards away from breaking Peyton Manning’s NFL record of 71,940 yards passing.

On Sunday morning, I will probably look for action on Brees’ yardage prop. To find the best bets in the props market, use our Player Props Tool, which is powered by our industry-leading projections. Since Week 1, the props with a bet quality of 10 have gone 62-36-2, which is good for a 62% win rate.

In 2017, the Giants allowed a league-high 18.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, and even though James Bettcher has replaced Steve Spagnuolo as the defensive coordinator, the pass defense is still exploitable. No. 1 cornerback Janoris Jenkins is likely to spend much of the game matched up with Pro Bowl wide receiver Michael Thomas, who leads the league with 38 receptions and 398 yards receiving on 40 targets. Jenkins has the reputation of being a shutdown corner, but he hasn’t had a PFF grade of even 70 since 2016, when he made his only Pro Bowl. Thomas has a significant size advantage over Jenkins at 6-foot-3 and 212 pounds (compared to Jenkins’ 5-10, 193-pound frame). And Jenkins has allowed a passer rating of 101.1 and 14-215-1 passing with an interception on 20 targets and 108 coverage snaps.

Whenever Jenkins matches up with Thomas, Brees will probably not be any less inclined to get his playmaker the ball.

Brees has a position-high 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.

Model Quarterbacks

There are four quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

  • Philip Rivers: $6,500 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel
  • Deshaun Watson: $6,300 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel
  • Matt Ryan: $6,100 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel
  • Carson Wentz: $5,800 DraftKings; $7,300 FanDuel

Philip Rivers: Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers, 46.5 O/U

UPDATE (9/30): 49ers cornerback Richard Sherman (calf) has been ruled out, strong safery Jaquiski Tartt (shouler) is doubtful and free safety Adrian Colbert (hip) is questionable.

Facing a 49ers team without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, the Chargers are the slate’s biggest favorites and have the highest implied team total, which is currently at 28.75 points. The 49ers could struggle to sustain drives with C.J. Beathard as the starter, giving the Chargers extra opportunities and good field position. With top-eight marks in plays (5.97), yards (38.8) and points (2.56) per drive as well as red-zone conversion rate (70.0%), the Chargers offense should be able to run up the score.

It certainly helps that the 49ers have a league-low PFF coverage grade of 35.7 and a significantly injured secondary.

  • Starting left cornerback Richard Sherman: Calf, doubtful (exited Week 3 early)
  • Starting strong safety Jaquiski Tartt: Shoulder, questionable (inactive in Week 3)
  • Starting free safety Adrian Colbert: Hip, questionable
  • No. 4 cornerback Jimmie Ward: Cramps, questionable
  • No. 5 cornerback Tarvarius Moore: Ribs, questionable
Philip-Rivers

Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

While the Chargers have a limited home-field advantage at the 25,300-seat StubHub Center, they were favored seven times in their first year in Los Angeles and Rivers played well in those games, averaging 21.8 DraftKings points with a +3.93 Plus/Minus and 85.7% Consistency Rating. Even if the Chargers get a big lead and heavily rely on the running game, Rivers should still be able to put up points thanks to the pass-catching prowess of wide receivers Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams, as well as running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler (who collectively might constitute the league’s best receiving quintet).

Rivers is the No. 1 FanDuel quarterback in the Freedman Model.

Deshaun Watson: Houston Texans (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts, 47 O/U

Even though the Texans are 0-3 and on the cusp of getting head coach Bill O’Brien fired, Watson is (perhaps) rounding into form with the return of playmaking No. 2 wide receiver Will Fuller, who missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury. In Watson’s six career starts with both Fuller and No. 1 wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, the quarterback has basically been the Michael Jordan of fantasy football, averaging 31.5 DraftKings points with a +13.9 Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency Rating.

  • 2018, Week 3 vs. Giants: 29.0 DraftKings points, +11.47 Plus/Minus, 385-2-1 passing, 5-36-0 rushing
  • 2018, Week 2 at Titans: 26.8 DraftKings points, +8.76 Plus/Minus, 310-2-1 passing, 5-44-0 rushing
  • 2017, Week 8 at Seahawks: 38.8 DraftKings points, +20.5 Plus/Minus, 402-4-3 passing, 8-67-0 rushing
  • 2017, Week 6 vs. Browns: 24.3 DraftKings points, +5.24 Plus/Minus, 225-3-1 passing, 6-23-0 rushing
  • 2017, Week 5 vs. Chiefs: 35.5 DraftKings points, +17.8 Plus/Minus, 261-5-0 passing, 3-31-0 rushing
  • 2017, Week 4 vs. Titans: 34.7 DraftKings points, +19.7 Plus/Minus, 283-4-1 passing, 4-24-0 rushing

Even though the Texans are road dogs, Watson has been slightly more productive as a dog than as a favorite (27.5 DraftKings points vs. 26.7), and the fast track at the domed Lucas Oil Stadium should suit the visiting Texans receivers just fine. Under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, the Colts have the fourth-highest PFF coverage grade at 80.7 through three weeks, but it’s notable that just last year their pass defense had a league-worst 28.5% DVOA.

Watson has a position-high two Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he leads all quarterbacks in the Bales, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models.

Matt Ryan: Atlanta Falcons (-5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 51 O/U

On Wednesday’s edition of The Action Network NFL Podcast, Koerner presented guest Drew Dinkmeyer, Peter and I with a combined prop for the most impressive fantasy quarterbacks of the young season. We originally intended to include only Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Buccaneers quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick — but then we realized we should also include Ryan, who is fifth among all quarterbacks with 28.2 DraftKings points per game. And thus the “Matt Ryan Fitzpatrick Mahomes” Week 4 total all-purpose touchdowns prop was created.

What do you think? How many touchdowns will Ryan, Fitzpatrick and Mahomes score?

  • 5-7?
  • Any other number?

I took the field. While the under is always possible, I’m looking for the over, and a lot of that has to do with Ryan. After suffering through offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian’s growing pains in 2017, when the team ranked just 23rd with a 50.0% red-zone conversion rate, Ryan and the Falcons have come alive over the past two weeks. Ryan was pathetic in Week 1, completing only 48.8% of his passes for 251 scoreless yards, but in Weeks 2 and 3, Ryan was a different player with a 77.8% completion rate, 646 yards passing, 30 yards rushing and nine touchdowns (seven passing and two rushing).

Matt-Ryan

Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

After having a painfully low 3.8% touchdown rate in 2017 and committing three Week 1 red-zone “turnovers” — interception, on downs and end of regulation — Ryan has been perfect in all his red-zone trips in the last two games, both of which (perhaps not coincidentally) have been at home.

  • Week 2: 11-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Calvin Ridley; 8-yard touchdown pass to tight end Austin Hooper; 1-yard touchdown run; 8-yard touchdown run
  • Week 3: 18-yard touchdown pass to Ridley; 9-yard touchdown pass to Ridley; 5-yard touchdown pass to running back Tevin Coleman (successful two-point pass to Hooper); 5-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Mohamed Sanu (successful two-point pass to Sanu)

That’s 8-for-8 in turning red-zone drives into six-pointers — with no touchdowns going to All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones. Whenever Jones finally gets going, Ryan could approach his 2016 MVP form. To his credit, Sark has enabled his quarterback to be a more aggressive passer this season. That assertiveness has benefited Ryan, who trails only Mahomes with nine attempts of 20+ yards and only Fitzpatrick with 332 deep-passing yards. Plus, Ryan is first in the league with his 64.3% deep accuracy. Ryan-Fitzpatrick-Mahomes, indeed.

Ryan is a home favorite in a game with a slate-high over/under, facing a Bengals defense that has been exploited for three straight games:

  • Andrew Luck vs. Bengals in Week 1: 23.5 DraftKings points, 319-2-1 passing, 1-7-0 rushing
  • Joe Flacco vs. Bengals in Week 2: 23.8 DraftKings points, 376-2-2 passing, 3-8-0 rushing
  • Cam Newton vs. Bengals in Week 3: 29.6 DraftKings points, 150-2-0 points, 10-36-2 rushing

Ryan leads the position with seven Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 passer in all of our Pro Models.

Carson Wentz: Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Tennessee Titans, 41.5 O/U

UPDATE (9/30): Running back Jay Ajayi (back) has been declared active. Running back Darren Sproles (hamstring) is out. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (shoulder, illness) is truly questionable to play.

There was nothing special about Wentz’s 2018 debut — he had only 13.2 DraftKings points and a -4.59 Plus/Minus on 255-1-1 passing and 3-10-0 rushing last week — but he looked mobile and poised in his return. Before suffering a season-ending double-ligament knee injury in Week 14, Wentz was the league’s presumptive MVP, and among quarterbacks with at least 10 starts, he was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback with 23.4 DraftKings points per game. Nothing he did last week suggested that he can’t be the player he was last year.

But I’m not a big fan of his situation this week. He’s the highest-rated FanDuel quarterback in the CSURAM88 and Levitan Models — and those two donkeys are smart guys — but I doubt that Wentz will entirely be himself until later in the season. His knee injury wasn’t just a straightforward single-ligament tear. I would expect him to be limited in running and maybe maneuvering in the pocket for much of the season.

On top of that, Wentz’s skill-position posse is banged up.

  • Starting running back Jay Ajayi: Back, questionable (inactive in Week 3)
  • Change-of-pace back Darren Sproles: Hamstring, questionable (inactive in Week 3)
  • Starting wide receiver Alshon Jeffery: Shoulder, questionable (inactive in Week 3)
  • Starting wide receiver Mike Wallace: Ankle, injured reserve

The recent return of longtime Eagles slot receiver Jordan Matthews — who had 800 yards receiving in three career-opening seasons with the team — could bolster the unit, but Matthews ran just 19 routes in his 2018 debut last week. He’s far from a savior. On top of that, the matchup isn’t easy. With new, defensive-minded head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans are eighth in the NFL with PFF grades of 77.1 in coverage and 69.4 in pass rush, holding quarterbacks to just 17.1 DraftKings points per game.

Wentz might warrant strategic ownership in GPPs on account of his demonstrated 2017 upside, but he certainly carries risk.

Quarterback Rundown

Here’s a quick look at the remaining starters on the slate.

Ryan Fitzpatrick/Jameis Winston: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Chicago Bears, 46.5 O/U

  • Fitzpatrick: $6,200 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel
  • Winston: $5,100 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
  • Fitzmagic has a position-high 65% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and enters Week 4 as the Bucs’ tentative starter, the top fantasy quarterback with 32.5 points per game and the only passer in history with three straight 400-yard games. Winston will be in cash-game consideration if named the starter, given his stone-low salaries and top-tier receivers.

Matthew Stafford: Detroit Lions (+3) at Dallas Cowboys, 43.5 O/U

  • $5,700 DraftKings; $7,300 FanDuel
  • “Matt” has the league’s best non-Bucs trio of wide receivers in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. Stafford also faces a Dallas defense that, under coordinator Rod Marinelli, has been much worse without linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring, doubtful) than with him (an average of 18.8 points allowed in 39 healthy games vs. 24.4 points in 28 games out or exited early).

Russell Wilson: Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Arizona Cardinals, 38.5 O/U

UPDATE (9/30): Wide receiver Doug Baldwin (knees) will play in Week 4.

  • $5,600 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel
  • DangeRuss has disappointed with just 16.9 fantasy points per game but still has a personal-high seven touchdowns through Week 3 — even without No. 1 wide receiver Doug Baldwin (knees, questionable).

Eli Manning: New York Giants (+3) vs. New Orleans Saints, 50 O/U

  • $5,600 DraftKings; $7,100 FanDuel
  • The future third-ballot Hall-of-Famer still hasn’t led the Giants to 30+ points since Week 17 of the 2015 season, but he is coming off an encouraging 297-2-0 passing performance and now faces a quarterback-friendly funnel defense that ranks first against the run with a -51.2% DVOA, but dead last against the pass (70.1%) and has allowed a league-worst 34.6 DraftKings points per game to the position.

Andrew Luck: Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) vs. Houston Texans, 47 O/U

  • $5,500 DraftKings; $7,300 FanDuel
  • The man with no shoulder is last in the league with a 5.6-yard average depth of target.

Ryan Tannehill: Miami Dolphins (+6.5) at New England Patriots, 47.5 O/U

  • $5,500 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
  • Tanny has multiple touchdowns and a completion rate in excess of 70% each game this year, but a league-low 74 pass attempts among all quarterbacks to start three games.

Andy Dalton: Cincinnati Bengals (+5) at Atlanta Falcons, 51 O/U

UPDATE (9/30): Wide receiver A.J. Green (groin) will play in Week 4.

  • $5,400 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel
  • The Red Rifle could be without No. 1 wide receiver A.J. Green (groin, questionable), but the Falcons defense will definitely be without starting middle linebacker Deion Jones (foot, IR), free safety Keanu Neal (knee, IR) and strong safety Ricardo Allen (Achilles, IR).
Dak-Prescott

Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Dak Prescott: Dallas Cowboys (-3) vs. Detroit Lions, 43.5 O/U

  • $5,300 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
  • The Cowboys have failed to hit their implied Vegas total in 8-of-10 games going back to last season, falling short by 6.2 points per game.

Baker Mayfield: Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Oakland Raiders, 45 O/U

Blake Bortles: Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) vs. New York Jets, 38.5 O/U

  • $5,200 DraftKings; $6,700 FanDuel
  • Bortles “leads” the NFL with 66 interceptions since entering the league in 2014, and the Jets pass defense is No. 1 overall with a -41.7% DVOA.

Mitchell Trubisky: Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 46.5 O/U

  • $5,200 DraftKings; $6,800 FanDuel
  • Trubisky is a 100% scripted quarterback with an 8.8 AY/A in the first quarter and a 3.5 AY/A thereafter.

Josh Allen: Buffalo Bills (+10) at Green Bay Packers, 45.5 O/U

  • $5,100 DraftKings; $6,400 FanDuel
  • The Jake Locker impersonator has an NFL-high 3.3-second time to throw to go along with his league-worst 55.7% completion rate among current starters.

Derek Carr: Oakland Raiders (-2.5) vs. Cleveland Browns, 46.5 O/U

  • $5,100 DraftKings; $7,000 FanDuel
  • No other player in NFL history through Weeks 1-3 has thrown as many interceptions as Carr (5) while still having a completion rate as high as his (76.6%). Side note: The Raiders have failed to hit their Vegas implied total in 10 straight games, falling short by 5.65 points per game.

Marcus Mariota & Blaine Gabbert: Tennessee Titans (+4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 41 O/U

  • Mariota: $5,000 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel
  • Gabbert: $4,000 DraftKings; $6,100 FanDuel
  • Mariota (elbow, probable) can’t fully grip a football right now, and Gabbert (concussion, questionable) can’t accurately throw a football (ever).

C.J. Beathard: San Francisco 49ers (+10.5) at Los Angeles Chargers, 46.5 O/U

  • $4,600 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
  • The raw 2017 third-round pick averaged a palatable 16.5 DraftKings points with a +2.15 Plus/Minus in his five starts last year, going 237-0.6-1 passing and 5-24.4-0.6 rushing per game.

Josh Rosen: Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. Seattle Seahawks, 38.5 O/U

  • $4,500 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
  • I thought for a solid 10 minutes about what to write for this blurb, but nothing came to mind except this: Will the Cardinals use their 2019 No. 1 overall pick on a quarterback?

Sam Darnold: New York Jets (+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 38.5 O/U

  • $4,500 DraftKings; $6,200 FanDuel
  • The Hair is making his third NFL start, and the Jags have held quarterbacks to a league-low 12.3 DraftKings points per game since last year.

Positional Breakdowns & News

Be sure to read the other Week 4 positional breakdowns.

• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

Photo credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured above: Matt Ryan