The penultimate race of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season takes place today at Martinsville Speedway for the Xfinity 500 (2:00 p.m. ET, NBC).
With 500 laps scheduled for today’s race, we absolutely need to nail the dominators in our DFS lineups. From there, we can fill out the rest of our lineup with drivers who show a great combination of place differential, finishing position, and value.
Usually there are two main dominators, but on occasion there has been either three, or one dominator at Martinsville since 2016.
So for Sunday, I’ll have a dominators section in addition to my cash and tournament sections.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Here are my NASCAR DFS picks and strategy for today’s Xfinity 500 at Martinsville.
Martinsville DraftKings DFS Dominator Picks
Chase Elliott ($11,200): While teammate Kyle Larson starts on pole, it’s Elliott who would like to lock himself into the championship round by grabbing the win.
Elliott has dominated here plenty, leading over 100 laps in four of his last 11 races at Martinsville, including three of the last four.
Kyle Larson ($11,700): I consider Larson more of a tournament fade, but he still is the second most-likely driver to dominate.
Larson admits Martinsville is his worst track and that he has trouble finding a rhythm here. While he is improving, I can definitely see where he may continue his struggles at the paperclip.
Ryan Blaney ($10,400): Blaney is the second most-likely driver to win the race, according to my model, and is the third most-likely driver to dominate, barely edging out Denny Hamlin in that category. I like Blaney in all formats, as he’ll be pushing for the win if he’s not in on points near the end of the race.
Martinsville DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks
Aric Almirola ($7000): Aside from the dominators, Almirola is actually the driver who has the highest projected points per dollar on the slate. He doesn’t have quite the short-run speed, and it showed in qualifying. However, he had the lowest tire falloff over the long run of all drivers.
He may even be under-rostered in tournaments, so I don’t mind using him over 30%.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($5900): Stenhouse blew turns 3 and 4 in his opening qualifying lap, compromising both laps. That means he’ll start 31st.
Thankfully for him, he was much faster in practice than he was in qualifying. Of the 19 drivers who made a 25-lap run, Stenhouse was smack dab in the middle in 10th.
Martinsville DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
Denny Hamlin ($11,400): Hamlin didn’t light the world on fire in practice or qualifying, but he seemed quite confident about his chances on Twitter.
Hamlin came in only 10th on the 10-lap average chart, which may keep some DFS players off of him. But he’s still a monster at Martinsville and has an outside shot at some mid-to-late-race dominance.
Brad Keselowski ($7500): The driver who projects to be the most underutilized outside of the dominator tier is RFK owner-driver Keselowski.
Keselowski has been on a tear in recent weeks, and now he comes to one of his better tracks. I can’t see DFS players rostering Keselowski too much thanks to his middling 10-lap average time.
Earlier this spring at Martinsville, he was running well until a mid-race penalty set him back in a race where passing was incredibly difficult. Keselowski knows how to race here and hold his track position. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him pull off his second consecutive top-five finish.