The NASCAR Cup Series races at Homestead-Miami Speedway today for the Dixie Vodka 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
Tire falloff will be important here, so I’m going to focus heavily on drivers that showed lower falloff over the long run.
Before we jump into my picks, don’t forget all my NASCAR projections can be found in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
Here are my NASCAR DFS picks and strategy for today’s Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Homestead DraftKings DFS Cash Game Picks
Tyler Reddick ($10,900): Reddick is the favored driver to win the race per my model, and he also displayed a very low level of tire falloff.
Reddick lost less than half a second between his 10- and 30-lap average times, which is right in line with Kyle Larson as the two lowest falloffs.
The kicker — Reddick was faster across all lap segments than Larson.
Kyle Larson ($10,800): Ah who am I kidding?
You have to play both of these drivers in cash games. These are the two that should get you the most fastest laps and laps led over the course of the race.
Larson is on a streak of four of six finishes at Homestead inside the top five. In the other two, he had problems while running inside the top five.
Bank on him finishing inside the top five barring a major issue.
Corey LaJoie ($5000): LaJoie is the easiest pick of the weekend for cash-game lineups.
LaJoie comes in at nearly a rock-bottom salary but ran inside the top 20 across all longer-run lap times.
In addition, he ran eighth and ninth out of 18 cars in the Homestead test last month.
He’ll easily move up from his 31st starting spot, racking you up a ton of place-differential points.
Homestead DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
Martin Truex, Jr. ($9400): People are down on Truex, but he’s still the same driver he’s always been.
A lot of bad luck has bit him, but he’ll find his way into the top eight by the end of the race.
Truex has finished inside the top three in four of the last five races here, including a win. He was one of the drivers who displayed lower tire falloff over the long run, so expect him to contend if the race has long green-flag runs like both the Truck and Xfinity races did.
Michael McDowell ($7400): People are going to sleep on McDowell thanks to his lack of practice speed, and I believe that’s a mistake.
Mr. Consistency has shown the ability to stay out of trouble all year while gaining spots he probably shouldn’t have simply by avoiding issues that other drivers have had.
McDowell has top-15 finishes in three of his last six Homestead races, and now he’s having the best season of his life.
If he stays out of trouble and there’s more attrition than expected, McDowell is in line for another strong finish.
By starting 18th, he’s not far enough back to think he’ll be chalky, but also not far enough forward to limit his upside. Play him in tournaments up to 20%.