DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Michigan: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400

NASCAR is at Michigan International Speedway for 200 laps at the 2-mile D-shaped oval.

As the largest non-drafting oval with banking, Michigan is known for its speed.

That means my practice FLAGS for Michigan will be extremely important as speed will dominate here.

With 200 laps scheduled, plan for 1-2 dominators, but with strategy in play there is a chance we see a handful of drivers lead a handful of laps as well, spreading the dominator points out more.

To see the top dominators, check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part, my Perfect% metric, a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 250,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway.

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Tyler Reddick ($10,700): Reddick was head and shoulders above the field as the fastest car in practice. And with Denny Hamlin getting moved to the rear of the field, it means Reddick will start on the front row.

That gives him the early avenue to domination.

Brad Keselowski ($7,900): Ford has struggled for speed, but Keselowski’s teammate Chris Buescher has shown a ton of speed this weekend, and this has been a good track for Keselowski himself as a Michigan native.

By starting 26th, he gives us that place differential we’re looking for at a track where dominator points may be spread out, making the combination of place differential and finishing position that much more important.

Ross Chastain ($8,100): I feel bad for Chastain because last week he had a blazing-fast car but, unfortunately, had a brake failure that ended his day.

That meant Chastain got an awful qualifying draw and, as a result, didn’t put down a great lap, so he’ll start 32nd.

But Chastain had a ton of speed in practice, ranking 7th in speed and 8th in rank-based FLAGS.

He should move forward and hopefully have no issues this week.

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Dominators: Here are my top dominators by likelihood of dominating:

1. Tyler Reddick
2. Carson Hocevar
   (gap to show tier)
3. Chase Elliott
4. Kyle Larson
5. Denny Hamlin (starts at rear, would be 1st otherwise)

Bubba Wallace ($8,500): If Wallace started closer to the front (he starts 13th), he’d honestly make my dominator list, and he could still do so. Instead, smash him into your tournament rosters.

Wallace had a bad qualifying draw from a crash last week at Nashville, so his 13th-place starting spot is actually quite impressive.

After all, we’re getting a guy who ranked 4th and 3rd in my speed and rank-based FLAGS metrics in practice, and his teammate (Reddick) was the clear No. 1. Those 23XI cars are fast.

Chris Buescher ($8,900): Flip-flop Buescher with Wallace for 3rd and 4th in the exact same FLAGS metrics.

Like Wallace, Buescher would be listed as a dominator if he started closer to the front. Also like Wallace, he had a bad qualifying draw, which means his 14th-place starting position is super impressive.

I could have just copied and pasted the Wallace section and just switched names and team names, but instead, I chose to rewrite it in different words.

HMS (except one): All four HMS cars are in play: Elliott and Larson as potential dominators and Byron as a sneaky GPP play after he starts at the rear of the field but be scored from 9th for DFS purposes.

Byron ranked 2nd in both FLAGS metrics and led that second tier of cars in practice speed that included Wallace, Buescher, Hamlin, and Elliott.

And Alex Bowman is a place-differential option by starting 29th, but he didn’t show a ton of speed in practice and might be the HMS test car at this point with no hope of making the playoffs. He’s an interesting fade candidate.

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I was surprised when my model spit out Austin Hill ($5,600) at nearly 20% optimal. It’s even more notable because my ownership projections have him around half that.

Hill ranked 23rd in practice, which is 6 places better than he starts. That means with some variance and/or attrition, he could legitimately have a top-20 day.

That’s huge because, at $5,600, that opens up lines where you can squeeze in 5 other mid-to-high-dollar drivers and feel pretty good about it.

He’s the pivot off of the chalky Josh Berry, who starts dead last and is $5,900.

Pictured: Bubba Wallace
Photo Credit: Imagn