The DFS Prospects Bowl Guide series breaks down draft-eligible players in upcoming bowl games, highlighting their college production as well as their NFL potential.
Earlier this season I put out a piece on the DFS merits of NFL prospect evaluation. It’s important for DFS players to know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. If someone had told you in May to pay attention to Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine, and Dede Westbrook as rookies, would that information have been worthwhile? Would it have gotten you to subscribe to FantasyLabs? (The answer should be “yes.”)
Keep an eye out for more installments of DFS Prospects Bowl Guide as we move further into bowl season.
- Part 1: Royce Freeman Looks Like a Future Star
- Part 2: Courtland Sutton Is a First-Round Receiver
- Part 3: Rashaad Penny Has NFL Workhorse Upside
- Part 4: Is Josh Rosen Worth the No. 1 Overall Pick?
- Part 5: Meet the Devin Funchess of the 2018 Draft
- Part 6: Bryce Love Has First-Round Potential
- Part 7: Jaylen Samuels Is a Second-Day Secret Stud
- Part 8: Is Sam Darnold Ready for the NFL?
- Part 9: Is the NFL Ready for the Youngest Heisman Winner in History?
- Part 10: Saquon Barkley Is the Best RB Prospect of the Past Decade
- Part 11: Derrius Guice Is the “Other” First-Round RB
- Part 12: Baker Mayfield Is the No. 1 QB Prospect
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Monday, Jan. 1
The second of the College Football Playoff semifinals, this bowl is a fantastic rematch of the last two championship games: Clemson (12-1, No. 1) vs. Alabama (11-1, No. 4). Some people might be interested in Clemson wide receiver Deon Cain, but with his production this year I doubt he’ll declare for the NFL draft — and I can’t bear to write about two overhyped underperforming non-senior pass catchers.
Calvin Ridley: Wide Receiver, Alabama
Ridley reportedly plans to declare for the NFL draft, which makes sense: Even though he’s a true junior, he’s already 23 years old, and he entered college as a five-star recruit and the nation’s No. 1 high school wide receiver. He was always going to be at Alabama for just three seasons. Widely expected to be a first-round pick, Ridley looks unlike a lot of successful Day 1 selections from previous seasons. People often compare him to Amari Cooper, but Ridley isn’t highly comparable to the former ‘Bama great. As a freshman Ridley led the team with 89 catches and seven touchdown receptions, and he broke Cooper’s single-season freshman receiving record with 1,045 yards — but Cooper hit 1,000 yards in 14 games as an 18-year-old, whereas Ridley had 15 games to hit his mark, and he turned 21 at the end of his freshman season. When Cooper was 21, he was in the NFL. Ridley’s first season wasn’t bad — he captured a solid 30.7 and 31.8 percent of the Tide’s yards and touchdowns receiving — but it wasn’t an epic campaign considering Ridley’s age.
Since that first season, Ridley doesn’t seem to have improved much (if at all). Last year he had just 72 receptions for 769 yards and seven touchdowns receiving (plus 21 yards and a touchdown rushing) — again, in 15 games — and his market share dropped to 24.4 and 26.9 percent of the receiving yards and touchdowns. This year he has 55 receptions for 896 yards and three touchdowns. While his receiving average (16.3 yards per catch) and market share of yards (36.3 percent) are the highest marks of his career, his 13.0 percent of touchdowns receiving is abominable for any type of wide receiver prospect, much less a probable first-rounder. Because of his small-ish size (6’1″ and 190 pounds), Ridley will need to display good athleticism in his pre-draft workouts to justify his draft hype, and although he is said to have good speed — he reportedly had a 4.35-second 40 in 2016 spring practices — it’s not uncommon for players to underperform their previously reported (read: misleading) times.
When Alabama lost to Auburn this year, Ridley spent much of the game defended by cornerback Carlton Davis, a potential first-rounder who was just named to the All-SEC first team. Ridley had just three receptions for 38 yards and no touchdowns. Next to other first-rounders — be they wide receivers for comparison or defensive backs for competition — Ridley is yet to look like a first-rounder. These might be my famous last words — but Ridley isn’t worthy of being a first-round wide receiver.
Damien Harris: Running Back, Alabama
The next in a line of NFL-bound Nick Saban-coached Alabama backs — Derrick Henry (2016 draft, 2.45), Kenyan Drake (2016, 3.73), T.J. Yeldon (2015, 2.36), Eddie Lacy (2013, 2.61), Trent Richardson (2012, 1.03), Mark Ingram (2011, 1.28), and Glen Coffee (2009, 3.74) — Harris arrived entered college as a five-star recruit and the top high school running back in the country. As a freshman Harris was the third-string back behind Henry and Drake, rushing for only 157 yards and a touchdown and adding four receptions for 13 yards. As a sophomore, with Henry and Drake gone, Harris played as the lead back in a committee, rushing for 1,037 yards and adding 14 receptions for 99 yards but scoring just four total touchdowns as he lost touches near the goal line. This year Harris is in an even timeshare with only 110 carries and eight receptions, but he has still produced with 972 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage.
What’s encouraging about Harris is that he’s noticeably improved throughout college. NFL Media’s Daniel Jeremiah sees Harris as a back who “does everything well,” and an SEC area scout told NFL analyst Lance Zierlein that Harris has “really committed himself to put in the work in the offseason,” and that is seen in the numbers. As a freshman, Harris averaged just 3.4 yards per carry, but last year that number jumped to 7.1; this year, 8.2. He’s been an explosive runner over the past two years despite having a quarterback in Jalen Hurts who doesn’t challenge defenses with the passing game. Last season, Harris had 7.5 highlight yards per opportunity; this season, 8.2. For comparison, No. 1 running back Saquon Barkley this year before his bowl game had 7.7 highlight yards per opportunity and 8.2 last year. Not yet 21 years old and built like a workhorse (5’11” and 212 pounds), Harris is second among all Football Bowl Subdivision backs with an Elusive Rating of 116.4 (PFF), second only to Stanford’s Bryce Love, who just won the Doak Walker Award. A Day 2 prospect, Harris could sneak into Day 1 with good pre-draft workouts — assuming he declares early for the 2018 draft.
Bo Scarbrough: Running Back, Alabama
As is always the case, Alabama is deep at running back. A 21-year-old redshirt junior, Scarbrough has been in a committee with Harris for the past two seasons. Last year he was arguably the more important member of the timeshare, rushing 125 times for 812 yards and 11 touchdowns. Entering the 2017 season, Scarbrough was generally thought of as the superior NFL prospect, given that he was powerful enough to be the goal-line back and explosive enough still to average 7.2 highlight yards per opportunity the prior year — but he has regressed this year. Despite out-touching Harris 122-118 he has 331 fewer yards and three fewer touchdowns than his teammate, and he is far less explosive with just 4.5 highlight yards per opportunity. It’s possible that Scarbrough could declare for the draft, but he’s averaged just 53.4 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game since 2016. That kind of production tends not to inspire a lot of NFL teams — but Scarbrough has workhorse size (6’2″ and 235 pounds), and he’s an Alabama back who entered college as a five-star recruit. If he’s in the 2018 draft, some team will pick him, probably on Day 3 but maybe on Day 2 if he finishes the season strong and tests well at the combine.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
Photo Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
