The DFS Prospects Bowl Guide series breaks down draft-eligible players in upcoming bowl games, highlighting their college production as well as their NFL potential.
Earlier this season I put out a piece on the DFS merits of NFL prospect evaluation. It’s important for DFS players to know about NFL rookies before they’ve played a down of professional football because they are among the most misvalued assets in all of DFS. People who know NFL rookies have a significant DFS edge. If someone had told you in May to pay attention to Jamaal Williams, Samaje Perine, and Dede Westbrook as rookies, would that information have been worthwhile? Would it have gotten you to subscribe to FantasyLabs? (The answer should be “yes.”)
Keep an eye out for more installments of DFS Prospects Bowl Guide as we move further into bowl season.
DXL Frisco Bowl: Wednesday, Dec. 20
Louisiana Tech (6-6) travels west to take on Southern Methodist (7-5) at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX. Although technically not a home game, the DXL Frisco Bowl is in SMU’s backyard, which should give the Mustangs an edge. For a number of reasons this game should be fascinating. LA Tech head coach Skip Holtz was hired in 2013 to replace Sonny Dykes, who was hired just last week as the new HC for SMU, which lost former HC Chad Morris to Arkansas. While the dynamic between the two coaches could be energetic, the departure of Morris is significant, as SMU’s offense could be out of sync, given that Morris took the entire offensive coaching staff with him.
What this means is that what we see out of SMU might not be representative of the team — and SMU’s two stud receivers could choose to declare for the draft rather than spend a final year in college under a new coaching staff and in a new offensive system.
Courtland Sutton: Wide Receiver, Southern Methodist
A high school tight end and safety, Sutton signed with SMU as a defensive back but played sparingly as a receiver during his three-game injury-shortened true freshman season. With the arrival of Morris in 2015, Sutton transitioned to offense full time and led the team as a redshirt freshman with 49 receptions for 862 yards and nine touchdowns. His market share numbers were impressive, as he captured 33.9 and 47.4 percent of SMU’s receiving yards and touchdowns. After a strong sophomore season (76 receptions, 1,246 yards, and 10 touchdowns; 39.3 and 45.5 percent of receiving yards and touchdowns), Sutton was eligible for the NFL draft but decided to return to SMU for his junior year, which has been solid: 62 receptions, 1,017 yards, and 12 touchdowns. He’s even scored a rushing touchdown this season.
While the redshirt junior has another year of eligibility, he seems almost certain to declare for the 2018 draft and will enter the combine as a potential first-round prospect and maybe the top receiver in the class. Given that Sutton played on the SMU basketball team for the second half of the 2015-16 season, he seems to be every bit of his listed size (6’4″ and 216 pounds). While he’s not likely to be fast — Sutton was ‘just’ a three-star recruit in high school — the 22-year-old is known as a big-bodied polished route runner with down-field ability: In his 2016 breakout, he was second among draft-eligible players with 16 deep receptions (Pro Football Focus). With his size and near-elite production — since 2016 he’s averaged 94.4 yards and 0.96 touchdowns per game — Sutton could find his way into the first round even if he doesn’t display strong athleticism at the combine. Given the type of offense he plays in and his physical attributes and production, Sutton as a prospect is perhaps a bigger pre-NFL Michael Crabtree.
Trey Quinn: Wide Receiver, Southern Methodist
As good as Sutton is, it’s possible — maybe even probable — that he’s been the second-best receiver on the Mustangs this season: Quinn has been that good in his first year of action at SMU. The all-time national leader in high school career receiving yardage with 6,566, Quinn was a top-three wide receiver recruit who stayed near home and attended Louisiana State for his first two seasons. Although he started seven games at split end for the Fighting Tigers as a true freshman in 2014, Quinn was phased out of the offense in 2015, catching only five passes as he played behind underachievers Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural in HC Les Miles’ final full season. Desirous of more playing time, Quinn transferred to SMU in 2016 and then redshirted the season per NCAA rules.
Quinn was wise to leave LSU. While the Tigers have offensively underwhelmed since Quinn left, he has been perhaps the best receiver in the nation this year. Through 12 games, he leads the Football Bowl Subdivision with 106 receptions and is top-10 with 1,191 yards and 12 touchdowns. A first-team PFF All-American, Quinn is second in the nation behind Colorado State wide receiver Michael Gallup with a 91.1 positional grade. In fact, Quinn leads the nation with 4.47 yards per route in the slot, where he plays the majority of his snaps. Given that he’s white, it would be easy (read: lazy) to compare him to other white slot receivers like Julian Edelman, Cooper Kupp, and even SMU forerunner Cole Beasley, but Quinn ran a 4.39-second 40 in high school, which makes him more similar to speedy receivers who play in the slot but also move across the formation like T.Y. Hilton, John Brown, and maybe even Brandin Cooks — except Quinn is bigger, listed at 6’0″ and 202 pounds. To put this in terms of former LSU receivers: If at the combine Quinn has the physical profile he’s reported to have, as a prospect he will be a Jarvis Landry-sized slot receiver with the athleticism of Odell Beckham Jr. Quinn has gotten little draft hype to this point, but he looks like the type of receiver who ends up as a third-round selection.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
