After blowing the largest lead in NFL history, the Indianapolis Colts will return home looking to play spoiler against the Los Angeles Chargers, who are surging toward the playoffs. Not only did the Colts blow a 33-0 third-quarter lead last week against the Vikings, but they also lost star running back Jonathan Taylor for the season due to an ankle injury.
The Colts also benched veteran quarterback Matt Ryan in favor of Nick Foles. With backups starting all over the field for the Colts, it should be no surprise that they are four-point home underdogs against the Chargers tonight. Their offense also ranks last in the league in total DVOA per FootballOutsiders this season.
With back-to-back home victories against the Dolphins and Titans, the Chargers can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight. Quarterback Justin Herbert became the first player to reach 4,000 passing yards in his first three seasons after he threw for over 300 yards for the third-straight game. This Chargers team seems to be clicking at the right time, as they have a great chance to get back into the playoffs for the first time in four seasons.
Picking a parlay for tonight’s game is super easy with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, which leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
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Chargers vs. Colts Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compares the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Zack Moss Over 55.5 Rushing Yards
With Taylor getting injured on his second snap of the game last week, the Colts prioritized new running back Zack Moss, who they acquired from the Bills at the trade deadline. Moss doubled the snaps of fellow backup running back Deon Jackson and had a career-high 24 rush attempts to Jackson’s 13 as he went for 84 yards on the ground.
Last week was the first time Moss has ever had 15 or more rushing attempts in a single game. He is expected to be the lead back moving forward as the Colts try to find answers to fix their league-worst offense. The Colts have lost four straight while allowing 33.5 points per game during that stretch, as they are playing for nothing but pride the rest of the season.
The Chargers have been gashed on the ground allowing 145.6 yards per game, which ranks as the sixth-highest in the league. Their defense is a run funnel, ranking 25th in rush defense DVOA and 13th in pass defense DVOA. If the Colts want to have any success, they will lean heavily on Moss. Reaching 56 rushing yards is an easy quest if he receives 20+ carries again.
Alec Pierce Under 35.5 Receiving Yards
With the Colts expected to struggle in the passing game, Alec Pierce is showing up as a great value on his under 35.5 receiving yards. The Chargers’ pass defense only allows 208.9 yards through the air, and it is anyone’s guess what Nick Foles has left in the tank. Being the third wide receiver on the Colts’ depth chart is a tough place to be.
Pierce is still behind Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell in targets and receptions this season. He has been very inconsistent in his rookie season, topping 36 receiving yards once in his last six games. He’s been shut out for half of those games, including last week, even though he had five targets and the Colts threw 33 times.
The one benefit for Pierce and the Colts’ passing game is that they will likely be playing from behind again. In his one game with more than 36 receiving yards in his last six, the Colts lost 54-19. It is hard to envision that type of deficit, but the Colts rank just outside the top 10 in pass rate. However, we’ll take the under in a tough spot for a boom or bust player.
Austin Ekeler Anytime Touchdown -130
Justin Herbert receives a lot of attention, but Austin Ekeler is the focal point in this Chargers offense. Getting into the end zone was a struggle up until the last two seasons for Ekeler. He had a career-high 20 total touchdowns last season and currently sits at 14 with three games left on the schedule, including this juicy matchup against the Colts.
Despite being a solid defense early in the season, the Colts have faltered down the stretch. Ekeler is arguably one of the most versatile running backs in the league, racking up a massive target share while maintaining a goal line role. Since Week 4, Ekeler has scored 14 total touchdowns and has reached paydirt in nine of his last 11 games.
Ekeler has been even better as a road favorite, scoring two or more touchdowns in four of his past five games in that scenario. In such a meaningful game for the Chargers, expect Ekeler to get 20+ touches and have plenty of opportunities to reach the end zone. They have a 24.75 implied total, and Ekeler is the main attraction.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Based on their simulations, Parlay IQ places the true odds on this parlay at +316, while FanDuel is offering +527. That is exceptional value on this parlay!
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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