NFL Week 11 ends with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Los Angeles Rams at 8:15 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Tom Brady at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,500 as opposed to $11,000.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
Tonight’s game doesn’t feature nearly the same offensive firepower as last night’s, but there are still plenty of options to choose from.
It starts with Brady, who’s putting together an excellent first year in Tampa Bay. He’s averaged 7.5 yards per attempt – which represents a sizable increase from his mark in his final season with the Patriots – and he’s racked up 23 touchdown passes. Only four QBs have more TD passes on the season, and all of those guys are squarely in the MVP discussion (Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger).
That said, he doesn’t have a great matchup tonight vs. the Rams. They rank ninth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, giving Brady an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.7 on DraftKings.
The Bucs’ current injury situation also isn’t ideal for this matchup. They’re expected to be without guard Ali Marpet once again, and he owns the fourth-highest Pro Football Focus grade at the position. The Rams employ the top interior defender in the league in Aaron Donald, so Marpet’s absence could be felt in this contest. Brady is not someone who deals well with pressure coming straight up the gut given his lack of mobility.
On the other side, Jared Goff will also have to deal with a brutal matchup. The Bucs rank first in pass defense DVOA thanks in part to a phenomenal pass rush. They rank third in adjusted sack rate, so they should be able to wreak havoc against an offensive line missing star LT Andrew Whitworth.
Goff has also struggled from a fantasy perspective in general this season. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games, scoring 17.2 DraftKings points or fewer in each contest. He’s reasonably priced for a QB in the single-game format, but he carries plenty of risk in this matchup.
Cooper Kupp has served as Goff’s primary pass catcher recently. He’s racked up 78 targets this season, and no one else on the team has more than 60. Unsurprisingly, Kupp’s average of 5.9 catches and 64.1 yards per game are both tops on the team.
His individual matchup in this contest is also much better than some of his teammates’. He plays primarily in the slot, which sets up a matchup vs. Sean Murphy-Bunting. Murphy-Bunting owns a PFF grade of just 50.9 this season, which gives Kupp a massive edge in that matchup. Add in the fact that Goff will likely have to get the ball out of his hands quickly in this contest, and I’m expecting a massive game from Kupp.
Mike Evans is the highest-priced WR on the Tampa side, and he’s coming off a strong performance in his last outing. He led the team with 11 targets and finished with six catches for 77 yards and a touchdown.
The Rams have been outstanding against opposing WRs this season – Evans owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.2 on DraftKings – thanks to the dominant cornerback duo of Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams. That said, the Bucs do move Evans all over the field, and he should find success against Troy Hill when he’s in the slot.
I prefer some of the other Bucs skill players at their respective price points, but Evans clearly has upside.
Midrange
Both of these teams spread the ball around on offense, so there are plenty of solid targets in the midrange.
The Bucs RB situation is an interesting one. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette have both had big games this season, but Jones appears to be the clear lead back at the moment. He played on 59% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps last week and finished with 23 carries. He made the most of those opportunities, finishing with 192 yards and a touchdown.
However, the price difference between Jones and Fournette is pretty steep. Rojo is going to cost you $8,800 on DraftKings, while Fournette costs just $4,400. With that in mind, Fournette could wind up being the superior value. He actually leads all players in our NFL Models in terms of projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown are also available for the Bucs, and Godwin stands out as one of my favorite options on the slate. He plays the majority of his snaps in the slot, which gives him easily the best individual matchup among the Bucs’ WRs. Overall, PFF gives him the third-highest advantage at the WR position on the entire Week 11 slate.
Things won’t be as easy for Brown. He plays almost exclusively on the outside, which means he won’t be able to escape the combination of Ramsey and Williams. Still, he’s been highly involved through his first two contests with the team, and Brady clearly loves playing with him.
If Kupp is the 1A in the Rams passing attack, Robert Woods is the 1B. He hasn’t been quite as involved as Kupp this season, but he’s made up for it by leading the team with four receiving touchdowns.
Unfortunately, Woods is expected to be shadowed by Carlton Davis this week, which puts him in a poor spot. Davis has been a solid cover corner this season, giving him the PFF edge in this matchup. Woods is still capable of finding success, but it’s going to be much tougher for him than guys like Kupp and Godwin.
Josh Reynolds has also emerged as a legit threat at the WR position for the Rams recently. He’s logged at least eight targets in three straight games, and he’s coming off a season-high eight catches for 94 yards last week vs. the Seahawks.
Of course, it’s hard to take any performance vs. the Seahawks all that seriously. They have been decimated by opposing pass attacks all season, so this matchup vs. the Bucs is a huge step up in weight class. Reynolds has seen a sizable price increase, so he could be a nice sell-high candidate.
Rob Gronkowski continues to provide solid production at the TE position. His target share was down a bit last week with all three stud WRs in the lineup, but he made up for it by recording 52 yards and a touchdown. He’s seen at least one red zone target in each of his past eight games, and his involvement around the goal line gives him solid upside every week.
The Rams backfield is a major headache at the moment. Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, and Cam Akers all played on at least 26% of their offensive snaps last week, and none on more than 41%. Henderson is still serving as the starter, but Brown actually finished with more snaps vs. Seattle. Brown also saw two carries in the red zone compared to just one for Henderson, and he also saw more targets in the passing game. That could make him the preferred option, but the Rams could struggle to move the ball on the ground.
Finally, Tyler Higbee saw six targets last week, which was his highest mark of the entire season. He also played on 84% of the team’s snaps after finishing with just 60% in the game prior. He appears to be trending in the right direction, so he stands out as a solid option.
Quick Hits
- Kickers and Defenses – These options are always in play in the single-game format. They tend to have more value in lower scoring games, and tonight’s contest definitely qualifies. All four look like potential values at their current price tags.
- Cam Akers: $2,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel – He’s the clear third option in the Rams rushing attack, but it does appear that the gap is closing. He finished with 10 carries last week on just 18 snaps, so the Rams are trying to get him the ball when he’s on the field.
- Gerald Everett: $2,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel – Everett took a backseat to Higbee last week, but the Rams are still using two TEs in plenty of situations. Everett has played on at least 55% of the offensive snaps in each of the past three weeks, and he’s also seen at least three targets in each of those contests. He has one of the safest floors in this price range.
- Cameron Brate: $2,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel – Brate has a floor of zero fantasy points, but he played on 36% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps last week despite the team being at full strength. He caught three passes for 31 yards and a touchdown in that contest, so he has some upside at this salary.
- Van Jefferson: $600 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel – The options after Brate are very thin, but Jefferson probably has the most upside of the bunch. He isn’t playing on a ton of snaps at the moment, but he has seen a target in four straight weeks. Crazier things have happened than Jefferson catching a touchdown in this contest.
