We are back to the states this week for the 3M Open, and it’s no surprise that the field is pretty watered down as many of the stars take some time off to rest up for next month’s playoffs. A few top guys are making the trip to TPC Twin Cities as Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama will headline the field, with several younger players also priced near the top on DraftKings.
DraftKings has kept with its typical layout, giving us the $20 Pitch + Putt with $250,000 to first out of the $1,000,000 prize pool. I’ll look to build through my picks below in an effort to take down that contest.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
Now, let’s get into the plays for the week.
Tony Finau $10,500
It’s pretty wild to look at ownership projections this week as everyone down to $8,800 is projected for at least high teens ownership, with some bumping up against 30%. Finau should be one of the highest-owned options, but with it all pretty flat and him not being too high priced, I’ll start with one of the top players in the field.
Finau had to make a clutch putt on Friday at The Open to see the weekend, and he took advantage with a big Sunday that helped him finish T28 on the week. I’ll be looking for him to carry the momentum of that round into this week at a course where he has made the cut three straight years and posted a T3 back in 2020. He knows what he needs to do around TPC Twin Cities, and it’s a course that suits his game for success.
Sungjae Im $10,000
Sungjae is on the low end of the ownership spectrum in this range, as he has had a bit of a strange season. He’s struggled since he was forced to withdraw from the PGA with a COVID issue, with two missed cuts and an 81st place finish last week at St. Andrews. I don’t expect his play to continue to struggle for long, and this is undoubtedly a good event for him to put together a strong finish. When he is right, he’s a top-3 player in this field, and in big contests for DFS, he’s worth a dart to see if he can turn things around at TPC Twin Cities.
J.T. Poston $8,500
I really like the pivot off of some chalk to Poston this week. He was dominant just a few weeks ago at the John Deere Classic and got a birth into The Open off that win. He didn’t make the weekend in Scotland, but his two rounds of 1-over-par 73 were nothing to be overly concerned about. I expect him to still show some form, and coming into an event that can fit his game — especially with his excellent putting ability — I’ll be looking to pivot off of the chalkier Adam Long and Brendan Steele.
Martin Laird $8,200
Laird is the player that looks to be the best combination of low ownership and high rating in the Bailey Model in this price range. He appears to be getting lost in the mix this week despite a third-place finish at the recent Barracuda Championship. That makes top 15 finishes in two of his last three appearances with a 30th in between, showing him to be in similar form to the chalk that surrounds him. I’ll take the ownership edge here to get different in some lineups this week as things are really condensed in this range.
Emiliano Grillo $7,600
My favorite pivot this week is Grillo over Adam Svensson. They are similar players, though the Canadian Svensson has been red-hot with his putter recently. Still, the gap is not nearly as large as the ownership differential between the two players.
Grillo was a similar story to Poston above, as his outstanding play at the JDC got him into The Open at the Old Course. His opening round 78 eliminated any chance of making the cut at The Open, but he still bounced back with a 68 on Friday. He’s got to feel good about his overall game, and if he can channel that good result from Rd 2 in St. Andrews, he has the skillset to be a top finisher this week at the 3M.
Joohyung Kim $7,300
Kim has shown his ability over the past few weeks, as the young South Korean made a charge up the leaderboard in Scotland to get himself into the Open the following week. He finished a respectable T47 at The Open after a T23 finish at the U.S. Open. The twenty-year-old clearly has a lot of talent, and I will continue to ride that as he heads to the 3M Open. Our model agrees, giving Kim the highest rating among those in the bottom half of this tier. He is likely to be a popular selection in this range, so be mindful of who you build him alongside for large-field contests, but in general, I don’t mind chalk below $7,500.
Hank Lebioda $6,900
Last year during the 3M, Lebioda was on a tear and one of the most popular plays in DFS. He shot 69-69 to make the weekend but was forced to withdraw due to a scary health issue for his Dad. Fast forward a year later, and he is in the bottom tier of pricing and not garnering anywhere near the attention due to his up and down play. I’m going to go to him this week, though, as he is still the same course fit and has upside well above this price point. The Bailey Model also rates him as the best of this tier, and if I can add the narrative of some unfinished business, it all stacks up for an excellent low-owned play in the Sleeper section.
Austin Cook $6,700
I’m going back to Cook again this week. He is starting to find the game a bit after a top 15 finish in Canada began a run of four straight made cuts, with two of those being top 20 finishes. He’s always been an iron play guy who can put together some birdie runs when his game is right. If we can catch him with an upside week on approach, he’s another player in this tier that could make a difference in big GPP lineups.