This fantasy preview is part of a preseason series by FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman with contributions from Ian Hartitz and Joe Holka. Other pieces in the series are available on our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.
Seattle and the Legion of Boom are perennial conference contenders with Russell Wilson, but in each of the last two seasons, the road has ended in the Divisional Round. For a team averaging 11 wins over its last five, with three division championships over that span, one ring for Pete Carroll’s squad could have been more. The road back to the Super Bowl goes through the Packers and Falcons in the NFC, but the Seahawks are always a strong bet to make the postseason. Just don’t put them at the 1-yard line in the Super Bowl. Still too soon?
Play-Calling Tendencies
Known for his youthful enthusiasm and energy, Carroll’s first taste in the NFL came in 1984 as the defensive backs coach for the Bills. He held the same role for the Vikings the following five seasons. His first defensive coordinator job came in 1990, where he ended up with the Jets, just one year after a failed attempt to become the head coach at Stanford — a position ultimately won by Dennis Green. In 1994, Carroll was promoted to head coach of those same Jets, but ultimately the team lost five straight games to finish 6-10, and he was fired after one season. After a two-year stint with the 49ers as a defensive coordinator again, Carroll was given a second head coaching opportunity to replace legend Bill Parcells in New England. His 1997 Patriots team won the AFC East division title but lost in the Wild Card Round a year later and missed the playoffs altogether in 1999. Carroll was fired and later named head coach of USC on December 15, 2000; he went on to have two BCS Championship Game appearances in 10 seasons — a 2005 win over Oklahoma and 2006 loss to Texas. On January 11, 2010, Carroll left the Trojans to coach the Seattle Seahawks.
After a 7-9 finish in his first year (which actually won the division), Carroll fired then play-caller Jeremy Bates due to “offensive philosophy differences.” His successor, Darrell Bevell, and the Seahawks offense scored the 23rd-most points in the league for the second straight season in 2011 and failed to make the playoffs. Tarvaris Jackson was clearly not the answer at quarterback, and the Seahawks drafted “Bevell’s project” Russell Wilson out of Wisconsin in the third round in 2012. During training camp, the quarterback competition sorted itself out — the team also acquired Matt Flynn from the Packers, who many thought would start — after Jackson was traded to the Bills. Wilson was their guy, and the Seahawks finished with a 11-5 record. They lost in the Divisional Round but took second in the NFC West and improved to the ninth-highest scoring offense with the most rush attempts in the league.
In 2013, the Seahawks finished the season with a 13-3 record, ultimately defeating the Broncos in the Super Bowl. Predictably, the offense skewed heavily towards the run, but the defense gave up the fewest points in the NFL for the second straight season — a honor held from 2012-2015. Ironically for a team so run-heavy, the very next season they lost the chance to go back-to-back after Wilson threw an interception on 2nd-and-goal from the 1-yard line with 26 seconds left in one of the most peculiar play calls in NFL history.
Run/Pass Splits
While on the subject of running or throwing, something odd happened to the Seahawks’ run/pass splits last year.
- 2012: 1st in run/pass split, 2nd in rush attempts
- 2013: 1st in run/pass split, 10th in rush attempts
- 2014: 2nd in run/pass split, 4th in rush attempts
- 2015: 4th in run/pass split, 2nd in rush attempts
- 2016: 16th in run/pass split, 25th in rush attempts
The Seahawks have averaged the second-highest run/pass split in the NFL from 2012-2015. In 2016, the offense could just not run the ball behind an offensive line ranking 26th in adjusted line yards and 25th in adjusted sack rate. Last season was also the only time Bevell has called plays for a team not in the top-10 in rushing attempts. However, it’s possible this was a product of necessity — Wilson’s knee and ankle injuries limited his mobility, and the Seahawks were decimated by injuries in the backfield — versus what they actually wanted to achieve. It’s still possible they want to give Wilson a bigger role passing the football, but it likely will fall somewhere in between his first four seasons and last.
Regarding pace: In his five years as Seahawks offensive coordinator, last year was also the first in which Bevell coordinated an offense faster than 26th in neutral pace (18th), but they still were below average at 30.75 seconds per play.
Seattle has a simple formula: If the Seahawks have their way, they will win games by playing good defense, running the football, and playing slowly using inevitable positive game script in their favor.
2017 Roster
Offensively, the Seahawks are very much the team they were last year. Still, the shuffling of the offensive line is notable:
- QB: Russell Wilson
- RB: Thomas Rawls/Christine Michael/C.J. Prosise/Alex Collins –> Rawls/Eddie Lacy/Prosise
- WR: Doug Baldwin
- WR: Jermaine Kearse –> Paul Richardson
- WR: Tyler Lockett/Richardson –> Kearse/Lockett
- TE: Jimmy Graham
- LT: George Fant/Bradley Sowell –> Rees Odhiambo/Luke Joeckel
- LG: Germain Ifedi –> Joeckel
- C: Justin Britt
- RG: Mark Glowinski/Oday Aboushi
- RT: Garry Gilliam –> Ifedi
With apologies to Fat Eddie — whose 2016 season was cut short by an ankle injury but wasn’t all that impressive beforehand (71-360-0 in five games) — the biggest changes are on the offensive line.
The Seahawks’ offensive line looks like an adventure again this year. They already lost Fant — the favorite to start at left tackle — in the preseason to a torn ACL. They took a flier on Joeckel — a disappointment after being selected No. 2 overall in 2013 — who is reportedly “ahead of schedule” in his recovery from last year’s ACL/MCL/meniscus tear. So far, Seattle has used him at left tackle and left guard, but he played guard in Jacksonville. Odhiambo (2016 third-round pick) looks like the favorite to win the left tackle job, but Joeckel is still in the mix though likely to end up back at left guard. Former Seattle offensive tackle, Gilliam, signed with the 49ers, which means Ifedi will reportedly make the move from left guard to right tackle. Ifedi struggled last year, but he doesn’t have huge shoes to fill, as Gilliam was the 68th-rated tackle in the NFL in 2016, per Pro Football Focus.
Defensively, the Seahawks look very similar:
- DE: Michael Bennett
- DT: Tony McDaniel/Ahtyba Rubin/Jarran Reed –> Rubin/Reed
- DE: Cliff Avril/Frank Clark
- WLB: K.J. Wright
- MLB: Bobby Wagner
- SLB: Michael Morgan/Brock Coyle –> Morgan/Michael Wilhoite
- CB: Richard Sherman
- CB: DeShawn Shead –> Tramaine Brock/Shaquill Griffin/Shead
- SCB: Jeremy Lane
- SS: Kam Chancellor
- FS: Earl Thomas
Chancellor and Thomas — PFF’s No. 3 and No. 16 safeties — along with Sherman, their primary shutdown corner (No. 12 overall), form a dominant trio that remains intact in the secondary. Throw in Wagner and Wright, the No. 3 and No. 8 ranked linebackers, respectively, and the returning core is pretty impressive. Bennett — PFF’s top run-blocking edge defender — will again be a strong presence and should assist Avril (11.5 sacks) and Clark (10 sacks) in pressuring the quarterback. They had a down year in that regard last season, racking up only the 24th-most hurries.
The interior defensive line is probably the closest thing to a weakness for the Seahawks defense. Both Reed (No. 81) and Rubin (No. 90) leave a lot to be desired. Last year, the Seahawks were eighth in yards and third in touchdowns allowed through the air. The upgrade from Shead (still recovering from an ACL injury) to Brock (free agent signing from San Francisco) as Seattle’s No. 2 corner gives them needed depth at the position.
Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see how these units take shape and to track any injury updates.
Notable Players
Has Seattle actually switched philosophies to rely more heavily on Wilson’s arm? Or is it more likely that they return to the run-heavy approach that got them to back-to-back Super Bowls in recent years?
Russell Wilson, QB
In 2016, Wilson sustained a high-ankle sprain in Week 1; just two weeks later he suffered a left MCL sprain. Those injuries led to a career-low in rushing (259 yards) and a career-high in pass attempts (546), but the latter is likely due to his confinement to the pocket. Regardless, he managed to appear in all 16 games and has never missed a game in his young five-year career.
It’s possible fantasy players are becoming biased by his injury-tainted season, as his 77.1 DRAFT ADP is almost 2.5 rounds lower than his average ADP just a year ago. There could be some value here if his 2017 season skews closer to healthy 2015 numbers:
- 2015: 68.1 percent completion rate, 72.2 QBR, 8.3 pass Y/A, 5.7 rush Y/A
- 2016: 64.7 percent, 63.2 QBR, 7.7 pass Y/A, 3.6 rush Y/A
Wilson rushed five or more times in 13 games in 2015, but last year that total dropped to seven. In his career (including playoffs), he has averaged 23.5 DraftKings PPG in 62 games with five or more rushing attempts and 20.2 PPG in 30 games under five rush attempts.
Over the past three seasons, even at a reasonable average salary of roughly $7,000, he’s produced a strong 20.59 DraftKings points per game (PPG) and a +2.61 Plus/Minus with a 56.0 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). Last year, he had especially drastic home/road splits, averaging 20.41 points at home and 16.11 points on the road. The public seemed well aware of this, as Wilson had a top-five ownership rate at home (9.1 percent) in large-field tournaments. This year, FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs.
Over the past three seasons, Wilson has actually been better and lower-owned on the road (21.35 PPG, 5.1 percent) and as a favorite (22.22 PPG, 5.3 percent) than at home (19.83 PPG, 7.6 percent). That said, in 2016 the trend reversed: Wilson was putrid as a road favorite, averaging 14.32 PPG and a -5.33 Plus/Minus. But again, it’s unclear how much of his struggles last year were due to playing through injuries. Be sure to monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Seahawks. If you want to stack Wilson with one of his weapons, do it with our Lineup Builder.
In the props market, Wilson is tied at +1,600 with Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, and Le’Veon Bell for the fifth-highest odds to win the MVP. The Seahawks are currently tied with the Falcons and Steelers for the fourth-highest odds to win the Super Bowl (+1,200). If Wilson returns to a healthy 2015 form, but the running game struggles enough to where the team is forced to rely on the passing game like in 2016, he could certainly put up MVP-like numbers. That said, there’s a lot of uncertainty in many of Wilson’s data points over the past couple of years.
Thomas Rawls, RB
With constant injuries and a violent running style, Rawls has missed 10 regular-season and three playoff games over the past two years:
- 2015 (Week 14): fractured ankle, placed on IR
- 2016 (Week 2): fractured fibula
- 2016 (Week 15): shoulder A/C joint sprain
Rawls was an undrafted player out of Central Michigan who ultimately earned a roster spot in 2015. Of the 44 and 42 players with a minimum of 100 rush attempts in 2015 and 2016, Rawls finished first (62 percent) and tied for 36th (41 percent) in success rate. After adjusting for offensive line play, via my Rushing Expectation methodology, Rawls’ efficiency as a runner was in the 78th percentile of a 60-player sample in 2015 but dropped to a respectable 68th percentile in 2016. That makes sense, given the Seahawks dropped from fourth to 26th in adjusted line yards over that same time period.
Rawls is currently atop the depth chart and the frontrunner to lead the Seahawks in carries, but he is currently dealing with a minor ankle issue that could aid Lacy’s opportunity early. His DRAFT ADP has spiked all the way to 135.0, but if he ends up as the lead back in this offense, Rawls might be one of the best late-round volume plays on the board.
Eddie Lacy, RB
Lacy has been training with P90X all summer to hit weight incentives in his contract, but that won’t necessarily make him a better football player. Via my Rushing Expectation methodology, adjusting for Green Bay’s 2016 offensive line, Lacy’s efficiency as a runner last year was in the 61st percentile. He scored zero touchdowns on 75 touches before the Packers ultimately cut ties in the offseason. Touchdowns should come, but his best situation is as a strong volume play in positive game script in a run-heavy offense. He doesn’t offer much in the passing game, and in his 56-game career he’s seen 15 or more rushing attempts in 24 games; he averaged 18.82 DraftKings PPG in those. His floor is a situational touchdown-dependent back to back up Rawls.
C.J. Prosise, RB
At Notre Dame, Prosise forced a missed tackle on average once every 2.5 carries on power-blocking scheme plays and once every 5.2 runs on inside-zone blocking scheme plays. Thankfully, Seattle runs a high percentage of zone running plays, most frequently inside zone. Prosise is best suited for DraftKings and their point per reception (PPR) format, and he will have trouble meeting his current DRAFT ADP of 120.3 unless he sees more volume in 2017. The Seahawks made little effort to design a role for him despite scoring the NFL’s sixth-highest fantasy points per opportunity (1.24) and league-leading 8.1 yards per touch (PlayerProfiler). Via my Rushing Expectation methodology, Prosise’s efficiency as a receiver last year was in the 70th percentile. That said, Wilson rarely looks for dump-offs: No Seattle back has had 40 receptions with him under center. Prosise has the frame (6’0” and 220 lbs.) to become a featured back, but he’s likely closer to a dynasty league dream than a dependable season-long asset.
Doug Baldwin, WR
Over the past two seasons, the only wide receivers to score more touchdowns than Baldwin (21) are Antonio Brown (22) and Odell Beckham Jr. (23). FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman wrote about the top 100 NFL players and had this to say about Baldwin:
Over the last two years, only three players other than Baldwin have at least 2,000 yards and 20 TDs in the air: Antonio, OBJ, and Allen Robinson. Unlike A-Rob, Baldy is targeted by someone who isn’t still trying to learn how to throw.
Touché Freedman. I’m here for the Bortles jokes.
Turning 29 near the start of the season, Baldwin is still a volume monster, but his red zone target share dropped considerably from 2015 (28.8 percent, 11th in NFL) to 2016 (21.1 percent, 29th). In that same time period, only Bilal Powell (76.6 percent), Michael Thomas (76.0), Keenan Allen (76.0), and Danny Amendola (75.9) have a higher overall catch rate than Baldwin (75.4). Of those guys, none have over 150 targets and only Thomas has a yards-per-target mark also above eight yards.
Per Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Baldwin is the best slot receiver in football. His room for growth is probably priced in, and he’s fair value at his 21.9 DRAFT ADP.
Paul Richardson, WR
Richardson, a second-round pick out of Colorado, has unteachable speed (4.4-second 40) and has good size (6’0” and 175 lbs.) for a burner. He’s a threat to take the top off a defense every play, which should help Seattle’s run game by keeping safeties back and out of the box. He played 429 snaps last season after playing just seven snaps in 2015 due to injuries. He posted a strong 77.3 PFF grade that ranked 44th at the position. With a 18.71 yards-per-reception (Y/R) mark in the postseason, Richardson showed big play upside and chemistry with Wilson. Richardson out-snapped Kearse in the Wild Card Round (75 versus 64 percent), only for the Seahawks to defer back to Kearse in the Divisional Round (69 versus 85 percent). With Lockett due back from his broken leg, Richardson carries upside, but his role remains to be seen. He’s a strong late-round flier at his 205.4 DRAFT ADP if looking for a ceiling play.
Jermaine Kearse, WR
Kearse signed a three-year extension last year but predictably underwhelmed. In 2016, his touchdown rate was terrible: Only one other player saw at least 85 targets and recorded a single TD (Eric Ebron). Of 88 qualifying players with at least 250 targets since 2012, only Ben Watson (3.89 yards), Andre Roberts (3.61), and Lance Kendricks (3.59) have fewer yards per game than Kearse (4.02). He also finished tied for 80th in touchdowns over that period (8) and 81st in receptions (153).
Tyler Lockett, WR
At just 5’10” and 182 lbs., with hands merely in the fourth percentile (MockDraftable), Lockett gained 3.64 yards per route run at Kansas State; only Amari Cooper and Tony Lippett were better among draft-eligible receivers. Of players with 65 or more targets in 2015, only Baldwin, Sammy Watkins, Tavon Austin, and Allen Hurns had more standard fantasy points per target than Lockett (1.48). At the time, Lockett’s rookie year success rate versus man coverage was the second-best mark for a rookie receiver, trailing only Beckham’s 80.1 percent in 2014 (Reception Perception).
Hobbled by a nagging PCL injury in September and October, Lockett’s 2016 was far less impressive, bearing a stat line of 66-41-1, but he did create an above-average 3.4 yards of separation (Next Gen Stats) before he fractured his fibula in Week 16. A week before the season-ending injury, he showed signs of life with a 7-130-1 line against the Rams on a massive 15 targets. All signs point to a full recovery, as Lockett missed just under a week of training camp. He has yet to become a consistent go-to option, but he could conceivably emerge as the team’s top deep threat with a 57.1 catch rate on throws 20 or more yards last year. Wilson throws a fantastic deep ball, boasting a completion rate of 57.1 (first in the league) and 42.2 (seventh) percent in 2015 and 2016, respectively. He currently owns a DRAFT ADP 47.8 picks higher than Richardson, but that gamble could pay off.
Jimmy Graham, TE
Graham’s return to form since his torn patellar tendon in 2015 was nothing short of miraculous. In under 10 months, Graham returned by Week 1 the following year and averaged 12.12 DraftKings PPG. He’s played through wrist, foot, and shoulder injuries over his career and has remained a constant offensive threat.
Since joining the Seahawks, Graham has just eight touchdowns in 27 games. However, of tight ends with over 75 targets in that span, just Rob Gronkowski (17.69) and Greg Olsen (13.87) have a higher yards-per-reception mark than Graham (13.52). He is also seventh in receiving yards per game (56.6) on just the 12th-most targets per game (6.3).
Over the last two years, Graham has provided significantly more value at home than on the road:
- Home (15 games): 13.87 DraftKings PPG, +3.32 Plus/Minus, 60.0 percent Consistency Rating, 7.4 percent ownership rate
- Road (14 games): 9.55 PPG, -1.43 Plus/Minus, 28.6 percent, 7.5 percent
Seattle has always been the favorite at home, but here is how his Vegas splits look on the road:
- Road Favorite (9 games): 10.59 DraftKings PPG, +0.03 Plus/Minus, 44.4 percent Consistency Rating, 6.8 percent ownership rate
- Road Dog (5 games): 7.68 PPG, -4.06 Plus/Minus, 0.0 percent, 8.9 percent
For some reason, Graham has been highest-owned as a road dog — by far his worst split. The edge looks to be targeting him at home to leverage more value at comparable ownership. More raw points, better salary-adjusted production, a higher degree of reliability, and slightly lower ownership: #YesPlease.
2017 Futures
In the futures market, the Seahawks currently have a 2017 win total of 10.5 with a -140 over and +110 under. They’re also +500 to make the playoffs and +350 not to make the playoffs. Over the last five years, the Seahawks have basically owned the NFC West:
- 2012: 10-5, second, playoffs, Divisional Round
- 2013: 13-3, first, playoffs, Super Bowl
- 2014: 12-4, first, playoffs, Super Bowl
- 2015: 10-6, second, playoffs, Divisional Round
- 2016: 10-5-1, first, playoffs, Divisional Round
Wilson-led teams have never won fewer than 10 games, and Seattle is just two years removed from back-to-back Super Bowl appearances. With limited turnover, the Seahawks are a strong favorite to win the division again at -275 odds. Writing for Rotoworld, Warren Sharp gives them the second-easiest schedule this year.
The Seahawks are currently +500 to win the NFC, with only the Packers having a better chance to reach the Super Bowl in the conference at +400. They are tied with the Falcons (+1,200) to win the Super Bowl, but trail only the Patriots (+325) and the aforementioned Packers (+800) in that category. New England is the clear class of the AFC, but the Seahawks will have to deal with teams like the Packers, Falcons, and Cowboys to get to the Super Bowl. Since 2012, the Seahawks have won the division three times. As long as the offensive line can be merely average and Wilson stays on the field, the Seahawks should should retain their NFC West title.
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In researching for this piece I consulted Evan Silva’s excellent Seahawks Fantasy Preview at Rotoworld and relied on data from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, Football Perspective, PlayerProfiler, Team Rankings, The Power Rank, NFL.com, and the apps at RotoViz as well as the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.
Ian Hartitz and Matt LaMarca contributed research to this article.
