This fantasy preview is part of a preseason series by FantasyLabs Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman. Other pieces in the series are available on our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.
That I’m even writing a fantasy preview for the Jets is ridiculous. Not since Bill Parcells — or Bill Belichick for a day — have the Jets had a head coach who didn’t seem as if he were pretending to be a coach. It’s not that the Jets have been bad ever since Parcells retired in 2000. It’s that they have been consistently mediocre, failing to make any sustained progress. They’ve stagnated. Over the last 17 years they’re 132-140. After this year, though, their post-Parcells record will likely be a lot worse — and that might represent progress. For the Jets, 2017 is about getting the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft and finding out which of their players will be contributors in the future.
Play-Calling Tendencies
Like Rex Ryan, Eric Mangini, Herm Edwards, and Al Groh (and Belichick and Parcells) before him, HC Todd Bowles is a defensive guy. Undrafted out of Temple in 1986, Bowles had a respectable NFL career as a player, starting 82 games and winning a Super Bowl with the Redskins after the 1987 season. After retiring, Bowles transitioned to coaching and made the rounds:
- Packers (1995-96): Personnel staff,
- Morehouse (1997): Defensive coordinator and secondary coach
- Grambling State (1998-99): DC and secondary coach
- Jets (2000): Secondary coach
- Browns (2001-04): Secondary coach
- Cowboys (2005-07): Secondary coach
- Dolphins (2008-11): Assistant HC and secondary coach –> interim HC
- Eagles (2012): Secondary coach –> interim DC
- Cardinals (2013-14): DC
It was in being hired by Parcells in 2005 that Bowles got his break. On the Dallas staff he befriended Tony Sparano, the offensive line coach and eventual assistant head coach in 2007 under new HC Wade Phillips. When Parcells was hired by the Dolphins after their 1-15 season in 2007, he brought on Sparano and Bowles as the HC and assistant HC. Once Sparano turned an 11-5 start with the Dolphins into an 18-27 finish, he was fired after Week 14 of the 2011 season and Bowles coached the final three games, going 2-1. The next year he started as the Eagles secondary coach, but after a 3-3 start HC Andy Reid fired DC Juan Castillo heading into the Week 7 bye and named Bowles the interim DC. While the secondary under Bowles finished ninth in yards allowed, the defense as a whole finished 29th in points allowed and 31st in takeaways.
After Reid’s dismissal in Philadelphia, Bowles was hired by the Cardinals to coordinate the defense, which he did well for two years with units that were seventh and fifth in points allowed. After his second season with Arizona, he won the inaugural Assistant Coach of the Year award and was hired by the Jets as their new coach.
For his first two years as the Jets HC, Bowles had Chan Gailey coordinate the offense. Naturally, Gailey brought in his former quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick, and for the first year the offense did well enough, ranking 10th in yards and 11th in points scored as the team finished 10-6. Last year, though, everything went wrong as the Jets finished 30th in points scored and 28th in points allowed. The quarterbacks in particular were horrible, combining for 27th in the league in yards passing (3,645), 28th in touchdowns (16), and dead last in interceptions (25).
In advance of the season Gailey reportedly told Bowles that he would retire after 2016, and, sure enough, he retired a couple of days after the season ended. Replacing him is John Morton, who spent some time on NFL practice squads and in the Canadian Football League in the 1990s as a wide receiver before transitioning to coaching in the 2000s.
Two facts stand out about Morton:
- He has no NFL play-calling experience.
- He’s worked with a number of high-profile coaches and assistants.
Here’s his employment record:
- 2002-03: Oakland, senior offensive assistant under HC Bill Callahan, OC Marc Trestman, and quarterbacks coach Jim Harbaugh
- 2004: Oakland, tight ends coach under HC Norv Turner
- 2005: Univ. of San Diego, wide receivers and passing game coach under HC Jim Harbaugh
- 2006: New Orleans, offensive assistant under HC Sean Payton, OC Doug Marrone, and quarterbacks coach Pete Carmichael
- 2007-08: Southern California, wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator under HC Pete Carroll and OC Steve Sarkisian
- 2009: Southern California, OC under HC Pete Carroll
- 2010: Southern California, OC under HC Lane Kiffin
- 2011-14: San Francisco, wide receivers coach under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman
- 2015-16: New Orleans, wide receivers coach under HC Sean Payton and OC Pete Carmichael
For a guy who’s never called an NFL play before, Morton’s probably as prepared as anyone can be. He’s been to multiple Super Bowls and learned under a number of coaches with different styles and systems. He’s coordinated a college offense with basically the same group of players under two different HCs. He’s had multiple stints with two of the best offensive HCs of the last decade in Harbaugh and Payton. Morton might not be horrible.
That said, even if Morton is a good OC, his 2017 offense will probably be horrible. In comparison to the USC offenses before and after his, Morton’s units were uninspiring, finishing 37th and 65th of 120 teams in scoring. He maddeningly spread the ball around, using a backfield committee and failing to develop a dominant receiver.
Given the dearth of talent and the turnover on the offense plus Morton’s lack of NFL play-calling experience, it’s almost impossible to predict how this offense will be bad — but it will almost certainly be bad.
2017 Roster
Again, I can’t believe I’m writing about this team:
- QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick/Bryce Petty –> Josh McCown/Christian Hackenberg/Petty
- RB: Matt Forte/Bilal Powell –> Powell/Forte/Elijah McGuire
- WR: Brandon Marshall –> Robby Anderson
- WR: Quincy Enunwa –> Jermaine Kearse
- WR: Eric Decker/Robby Anderson/Charone Peake –> ArDarius Stewart/Peake/Chad Hansen
- TE: Kellen Davis/Brandon Bostick –> Austin Seferian-Jenkins
- LT: Ryan Clady/Ben Ijalana –> Kelvin Beachum
- LG: James Carpenter
- C: Nick Mangold/Wesley Johnson –> Johnson
- RG: Brian Winters
- RT: Ben Ijalana/Breno Giacomini/Brent Qvale –> Ijalana
It’s not as if the offense was paradise last year, but this year the Jets have paved the unit and put up a parking lot.
For the last three years McCown has been living off a seven-game stretch in 2013 when he threw 13 touchdowns (against one interception) for the Bears. Since then he’s underwhelmed with the Buccaneers and Browns. It’s hard to say he’s an upgrade on FitzMagic. Marshall and Decker were cut during the offseason and Enunwa was placed on injured reserve with a neck injury in early August. Anderson, Stewart, and Peake are significant downgrades. Kearse — acquired TODAY from the Seahawks (along with a 2018 second-rounder) for Sheldon Richardson — is a run-blocking receiver who wishes he were Anquan Boldin. Davis and Bostick made a travesty of the tight end position. Clean and sober, ASJ is an upgrade — or at least he won’t be worse than they were.
The Jets declined the option on Clady’s contract and released Giacomini after the season. Beachum is slated to replace Clady at left tackle, but he’s hardly an upgraded, given his poor 49.9 overall Pro Football Focus grade last year. Carpenter and Winters are a solid if unspectacular guard duo, but the line will likely miss Mangold, who was cut in February in a money-saving move after making the Pro Bowl in seven of his 11 years with the team. Johnson isn’t a strong replacement, finishing last season with a 53.6 PFF grade.
And it’s hard to say much that’s good about the defense, which from 2015 to 2016 dropped from fourth, ninth, and third in yards, points, and takeaways to 11th, 28th, and 28th. A defensive line coach for the Cowboys (2003-07) and Dolphins (2008-14) before joining Bowles in New York to coordinate the defense, Kacy Rodgers has a unit that is strong against the run — fourth and 11th in rushing yards allowed the last two years — but this unit still has issues, especially in the secondary:
- DE: Sheldon Richardson/Leonard Williams –> Williams
- NT/DT: Steve McLendon/Leonard Williams –> McLendon
- DE: Muhammad Wilkerson
- OLB: Lorenzo Mauldin –> Mauldin/Freddie Bishop/Kony Ealy
- MLB: Darron Lee
- MLB: David Harris –> Demario Davis
- OLB: Jordan Jenkins
- CB: Darrelle Revis –> Morris Claiborne
- CB: Marcus Williams/Darryl Roberts/Justin Burris –> Burris/Williams
- SCB: Buster Skrine
- SS: Calvin Pryor –> Jamal Adams
- FS: Marcus Gilchrist –> Marcus Maye
Williams, Wilkerson, and Richardson formed a dynamic trio, but the Jets just traded away Richardson. Mauldin has missed most of the offseason with a back injury, and Bowles recently said he could be headed to the injured reserve. He might be replaced by Bishop and Ealy, who just recently joined the team after being cut by the Patriots. After a decade of manning the middle, Harris was released as a post-June 1 cut and has signed with the division rival Patriots. Replacing him is Davis, who played with the Jets in 2012-15 and returned to the team via a trade that sent Pryor to the Browns.
Replacing Pryor is the first-round rookie Adams, who is likely to be a playmaking upgrade. Gone is the sometime Jet Revis, and in his place is Claiborne, who after a disappointing first four years in Dallas leveraged a good fifth season into a one-year deal. After suffering a ruptured patellar tendon in Week 14, Gilchrist was released by the Jets in May. The second-rounder Maye will step in as the starting free safety. While the Jets have theoretically upgraded a significant portion of their secondary, it’s possible that their two rookie safeties could struggle and Claiborne could regress to his career average. With Burris and Williams competing for the outside corner spot opposite Claiborne, this unit as a whole ranks as PFF’s fifth-worst secondary entering the season.
Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL Matchups Dashboard as well as our NFL News feed to see how these units take shape and to track any injury updates.
Notable Players
Given that this organization is treating 2017 like a joke, I’m going to do the same.
Josh McCown, QB
In his next life, McCown will be reincarnated as an old decaying wooden bridge. Only one psuedo-regular starter still in the NFL has had an interception rate worst than McCown’s 3.06 percent over the last three years: Fitzpatrick (3.13). So I guess McCown is an upgrade. A morbidly bad 8-30 as a starter over the last decade, McCown looks ready to lead this team to the No. 1 pick. (Just ask the Browns.) Even when he inevitably gets injured he’ll be helping this team lose in absentia when Hackenberg and Petty play.
McCown has suffered a litany of injuries in the last few years and he’s an old quarterback on a bad team with two young passers behind him. One way or another, he’s unlikely to play all 16 games. In fact, throughout the past half-decade McCown has been the harbinger of quarterback calamity, with multiple passers making starts each year he’s been on a team:
- 2012: Bears, two starters
- 2013: Bears, two starters
- 2014: Buccaneers, two starters
- 2015: Browns, three starters
- 2016: Browns, three starters
Last year the Jets started three quarterbacks. This year the Jets are likely to start at least two passers and probably three. Right now — and I love that this prop exists — the Jets are +130 to start over two quarterbacks this season and -160 to start under two. That’s delicious. Chris Raybon, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Bryan Mears, and I talked about props on our recent Daily Fantasy Flex episode. I would’ve loved to hear the group’s thoughts on this prop.
Here’s what’s fascinating about McCown: Over the last three years he’s been serviceable when healthy, averaging 16.45 DraftKings points per game (PPG) — or at least the games he’s started — with a +2.60 Plus/Minus and 63.6 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). Significantly, McCown has had effectively no home/road splits, averaging 16.28 PPG at home and 16.71 on the road — and yet he’s had an ownership rate of just 1.1 percent on the road in large-field guaranteed prize pools in comparison to 2.7 percent at home.
This year FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. Monitor our Vegas Dashboard to see how the market views the Jets each week. As a cheap option, McCown warrants some speculative exposure at his low ownership in GPPs. Be sure to study our DFS Contests Dashboard throughout the season to see how contrarian a Jets stack makes your tournament rosters, and consult our Correlations Matrix to get a sense of McCown’s best stacking partners. Use our Lineup Builder for a streamlined and maybe even pleasurable all-around process.
Christian Hackenberg, QB
Thanks to this guy, I’ve developed one of the most intuitive heuristics ever: Never trust a young dude if his name contains the word “Hack.” There’s a reason Shaquille O’Neal spells his name with a “q.”
Bryce Petty, QB
Petty should (but might not) start some games this year: The Jets need to see if he has any real NFL potential. He has nice size (6’3″ and 230 lbs.) with great agility (6.91-second three-cone) to navigate the pocket and good burst (121.0-inch broad) to scramble for extra yardage. He’s probably not a good quarterback — but he might be. Selected in the fourth round of the 2015 draft, Petty redshirted his rookie season — or, in Jets parlance, he “hacked” it — but in his two seasons as a starter at Baylor he was a stud, averaging 4,027.5 yards and 30.5 touchdowns passing (to 5.0 interceptions) and chipping in 155.0 yards rushing (including sacks) per year. His 10.6 adjusted yards per attempt is a wildly inflated mark because of Baylor’s offense — but not every Jets quarterback can have a 6.5 AY/A across three seasons at Penn State.
Petty didn’t look great in his three healthy starts last year, but he’s been the only Jets passer to come close to impressing recently with 250 yards and three touchdowns on 15-of-18 passing in the third preseason game before suffering an MCL sprain that could keep him from suiting up to start the year. After Petty’s injury, Bowles said he believes Petty has made “legit improvement” this offseason. That will probably translate into some 2017 starts — which will likely go poorly.
Bilal Powell, RB
Powell is entering his age-29 season, he has medium size (5’11” and 207 lbs.) and mediocre athleticism (4.54-second 40), and he has hit the 1,000-yard rushing mark just once in the last decade (including college) — but, sure, he’s the guy who should lead this backfield. It’s not that Powell is bad — he’s sixth in receptions (105) and ninth in yards (776) among all backs over the last two years — but, in the words of Mr. Tuttle to George, he’s probably not Pensky material. When Powell replaced an injured Forte as the lead back for the last month of 2016, he was stupendous, turning 20.5 carries and 5.75 targets per game into 138 scrimmage yards, 5.25 receptions, and 0.75 touchdowns for 25.05 DraftKings PPG. Nevertheless, four big games at the end of a 5-11 campaign do not a workhorse make. Powell doesn’t seem built to withstand the grind of 16 games as the lead back — but he will likely have some big performances in 2017, especially with his ability to catch the ball in garbage time, which is basically the entire season. He seems expensive at his average draft position (ADP) of 73.3 in DRAFT best ball leagues — but if you like spending mid-round picks on pass-catching backs with no sustained history of NFL workhorse experience then Powell is a fine choice (for you).
Matt Forte, RB
This is what it looks like to be the last person alive in the haunted house in a horror movie or on a deserted island in a bad TV show.
Last year Forte had his ninth consecutive NFL season with 1,000-plus yards from scrimmage. In 14 games he had 1,076 yards and eight touchdowns for 13.61 DraftKings PPG; Powell had 1,110 yards and five touchdowns in 16 games for 12.75 DraftKings PPG. Forte has workhorse size (6’1″ and 217 lbs.) and workhorse history (13,794 career scrimmage yards). He’s not as explosive or agile as his younger teammate — last year Powell was 11th and 14th in breakaway run rate and juke rate compared to 49th and 56th for Forte (PlayerProfiler) — but Forte seems likely to get at least a regular share of the snaps, and in 2016 he was a respectable 25th at the position with 0.38 fantasy points per snap. Forte is reportedly on the trade block and the roster bubble, but he might stick with the team given that his salary is guaranteed and he’s a strong veteran and professional presence in the locker room. Forte warrants speculative portfolio exposure at his 119.2 DRAFT ADP. Would it be a surprise if Forte did for one more season what he’s done every other year of his NFL career: Lead his backfield?
Elijah McGuire, RB
In the good-old days of daily fantasy college football, McGuire was the small-school secret of those in the know, toiling for four years in the backwoods bayou of Louisiana-Lafayette. (He was so underappreciated in college that PFF didn’t write a scouting report for him.) An all-time great for the Ragin’ Cajuns, McGuire went over 1,200 scrimmage yards in all four years of his career, finishing with 111.7 yards and 1.02 touchdowns from scrimmage per game across all 51 of his college contests. The 23-year-old McGuire has horrid agility (7.26-second three-cone) but good speed (4.53-second 40) for his size (5’10” and 214 lbs.), and he’s an accomplished receiver with a 130-1,394-10 receiving line for his college career. With his combination of age, size, and three-down potential, McGuire has an outside shot of making some noise throughout the season. He’s worth stashing in dynasty leagues.
Robby Anderson, WR
Multiple times this season some Jets ‘quarterback’ is going to hurl a leather-looking oblong into the air, and history suggests that someone on his team will catch it 40 percent of the time at worst. That’s the investment case for Anderson. Someone has to catch the ball, and out of all the receivers on the team he’s the only one who played as a regular starter for the Jets last year, turning 53 targets into a 27-435-2 receiving line and 10.34 DraftKings PPG across the final eight games of the season as an undrafted rookie. This year he seems likely to see more snaps and also more targets on a per-snap basis — and he also might become more efficient, as many receivers do in their second seasons.
On top of that, he’s not without talent. Long and lean (6’3″ and 187 lbs.), Anderson at his pro day displayed deep speed (4.36-second 40) and jump-ball ability (128.0-inch broad). He has a curious past — he left and returned to Temple’s football team a couple of times and transitioned from cornerback to receiver after two years on campus — but in his first season (2013) as a receiver he averaged 5.25 receptions for 96.75 yards and 1.13 touchdowns as a redshirt sophomore in the eight games he started. He got into legal trouble in May for violently resisting arrest and obstruction of justice, so his collegiate off-field issues seem to have followed him to the NFL, but he worked with former All-Pro receiver Chad Johnson this summer and reportedly finished training camp in good form. He was fifth in the NFL last year with a 15.8-yard target distance. At a 173.8 DRAFT ADP, he’s priced well below his floor projection.
Jermaine Kearse, WR
Kearse theoretically might be the team’s No. 1 receiver, which is sad, given that he’s new to the team (I’m writing this on Sep. 1) and #notgood. Over the last three years he’s played in 47 and started 45 of 48 possible games. Across that time, he has averaged 7.41 DraftKings PPG. Last year he caught 46.1 percent of his targets and scored one touchdown. On a per-snap basis, Anderson outscored Kearse last year 0.16 (88th) to 0.12 (101st). I expect Anderson to outproduce Kearse again this year.
ArDarius Stewart, WR
Drafted in the third round out of Alabama, Stewart was a sneakily productive receiver as a redshirt junior in his final season, finishing with 864 yards and eight touchdowns receiving (despite missing three games) in a limited run-heavy offense. In terms of market share, Stewart had impressive marks with 35.7 and 42.1 percent of the Tide’s receiving yards and touchdowns in the 12 games he played. Stewart has decent size (5’11” and 204 lbs.) and speed (4.49-second 40) and in 2016 was second among Power 5 draft-eligible wide receivers with 10.7 yards after the catch per reception (PFF). He’s flashed with the second-stringers this preseason, turning his 11 targets into an 8-113-2 line. I tend not to like shorter wide receivers who didn’t score a lot of touchdowns in college, so I’m not a fan of Stewart, but he might be a good player.
Charone Peake, WR
In 2011, the top of the Clemson Tigers wide receiver depth chart looked like this:
- Sammy Watkins
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Jaron Brown
- Adam Humphries
- Martavis Bryant
Three of those receivers have become NFL stars. All five have made it to the NFL. The sixth guy on the depth chart was the true freshman Peake. At no point did he lead Clemson in receptions, yards, or touchdowns. He has good size (6’2″ and 209 lbs.) and speed (4.45-second 40), but I’m willing to bet that the 10-4 Tigers team from 2011 didn’t have six NFL-caliber receivers on it. A seventh-round rookie, Peake last year was the team’s No. 5 wideout, turning 35 targets into a 19-186-0 line. In Week 6 he led the team with 10 targets against the Cardinals, finishing with a 5-43-0 line. I’m not joking when I say this: That was the low point of the season for the Jets, who lost the game to open the season 1-5. Prediction: In two years, you won’t remember who this guy is.
By the way, if I had cared enough to try to pull off a “My Sharona” pun in this blurb, that would’ve been peake Freedman.
Chad Hansen, WR
Hansen enters the NFL as one of several fourth-round rookies who could crush 2017. He played at Idaho State in the Football Championship Subdivision as a true freshman, turning 45 receptions and two rushes into 511 yards and three touchdowns before transferring to California-Berkeley, where he sat out the 2014 season per NCAA rules. In 2015 he contributed as a role player and then out of nowhere exploded in 2016 as the No. 1 receiver en route to a brilliant 92-1,249-11 campaign in 10 games. With average size (6’2″ and 202 lbs.) and speed (4.53-second 40), Hansen has tremendous agility (6.74-second three-cone). An excellent outside receiver who caught all 17 of of his catchable deep targets last year (PFF), Hansen also has the ability to play in the slot. He could develop into an option as the season spirals out of control progresses.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE
In 2013 Seferian-Jenkins won the John Mackey award as the best college tight end. He exhibited good size (6’6″ and 262 lbs.) and speed (4.45-second 40) in his pre-draft workouts and was drafted with the 38th overall pick by the Buccaneers in the 2014 draft. By 2016 the Bucs had grown tired of his injury issues and drinking problems, and they waived him two games into the season. Claimed by the Jets, he led the team’s tight ends last year with a 10-110-0 line on 17 targets — which is pathetic. After the season ended ASJ went into rehab and apparently has turned his life around, losing 25 lbs. over the offseason and dominating in training camp. Morton is a former tight ends coach and has worked on coaching staffs that have used their tight ends extensively. In college he was the OC for the USC team that had Jordan Cameron. After returning from his two-game DUI-related suspension to open the season, ASJ could lead the team in receiving touchdowns — with three.
2017 Futures
The Jets currently have a 4.5 win total with a +215 over and -275 under. They’re also +2,000 to make the playoffs and -5000 not to. It’s hard to imagine the Jets winning at least five games or making the playoffs, but there’s no value in betting the under. If you’re looking for upside but still want to bet on the Jets sucking, consider this: They’re +2,100 to go 0-16 in the regular season (and -4,200 to win or tie at least one game). If you’re convinced they’re historically bad, chase that Black Swan.
The Jets are +30,000 to win the Super Bowl, +10,000 to win the AFC, and +5,000 to win the AFC East. No. Bowles has the highest implied odds at +320 to be the first HC to lose his job this season. (The field is -460.) It’s going to be that type of season.
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In researching for this piece I consulted Evan Silva’s excellent Jets Fantasy Preview at Rotoworld and relied on data from Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, Football Perspective, PlayerProfiler, Team Rankings, The Power Rank, NFL.com, and the apps at RotoViz as well as the FantasyLabs Tools and Models.
Ian Hartitz contributed research to this article.
