The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
DraftKings and FanDuel are each offering $100,000 first-place prizes in their largest one-game guaranteed prize pools for Friday’s Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers at 8:30 p.m. ET.
If you’re not familiar, DraftKings’ one-game contests feature six-man rosters, a $50,000 cap, and no scoring multipliers, while FanDuel’s feature five-man rosters, a $60,000 cap, and scoring multipliers for whichever player you designate as the MVP (2x), Star (1.5x), and Pro (1.2x). FanDuel’s multipliers introduce more lineup combinations and should help to limit some of the all-too-common ties that occur in these contests, while DraftKings’ lack of multipliers increases the likelihood of ties and therefore provides extra incentive to go contrarian in other ways, such as by taking a player projected for extremely low ownership or by leaving salary on the table.
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers (-7) | O/U: 202.5
8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Cavaliers (104.75 implied points)
The Celtics won Game 5 by a comfortable margin, which is not all that surprising considering they were playing at home. The home teams have absolutely dominated in this series, with the Celtics posting a Net Rating of +16.4 in Boston and the Cavaliers posting a Net Rating of +16.9 in Cleveland. The series returns to Ohio for game 6, and the books have responded by making the Cavs seven-point favorites. The public clearly believes in this narrative as well, with 59% of the bets currently coming in on the Cavaliers.
In addition to playing at home, the Cavs will be in a win-or-go-home situation — a situation which LeBron James has historically handled well, averaging 35.8 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 7.3 assists since losing to Dallas in Game 6 of the 2011 NBA Finals. Those numbers are good for an average of 62.75 DraftKings points per game, and that’s before factoring in points awarded for blocks, steals, or the potential for a double- or triple-doubles. James has the highest ceiling on the slate by a significant margin.
Ed. Note: The above reference to “triple-double” was initially typo’d as “trouble-double,” leading to this exchange on Slack:
I looked it up, and it turns out Russell Westbrook and James Harden are tied with six trouble-doubles apiece over the past two seasons while no other player has more than one, according to Basketball Reference.
Kevin Love has struggled in this series, averaging a Plus/Minus of -3.52 on DraftKings. Love’s been guarded almost exclusively by Al Horford, who has limited him to 12.2 fewer points per 100 possessions than his season average. Love’s minutes have also been on the decline, as he’s played 31 or less in each of the past three games. He seems a bit overpriced at the moment, especially if you’re looking to jam LeBron into your lineup.
After those two players, the guessing game begins. None of the Cavs role players have displayed any consistency during the playoffs, although they have been slightly better when playing at home. Tristan Thompson has become a staple for the Cavs since entering the starting lineup in Game 2, but he’s coming off his worst game of the series in Game 5. That said, he still figures to see a healthy amount of playing time and should improve upon his series-low of six rebounds in Game 4.
J.R. Smith has been a disaster this series. He’s shot just 9-of-39 (23.1%) from the field (23.1%), and though Smith isn’t exactly a marksman, that figure still represents a significant decrease from his regular-season average of 40.3%. He’s due for some positive regression, especially considering he’s shot much better at home over the course of the season.
Kyle Korver has been arguably the Cavs best option at shooting guard during the series, posting a better Net Rating than Smith, Jordan Clarkson, or Rodney Hood. Apparently head coach Ty Lue doesn’t agree; Korver is coming off just 18.5 minutes in Game 5. Korver could be worth some consideration as a contrarian option — he did shoot 9-of-12 from the field over Games 3 and 4 — but he could also find himself spending more time than expected on the bench.
Speaking of Jordan Clarkson, he could be someone worth considering as a punt play at just $1,800 on DraftKings. Clarkson has only played in four of the five games during this series but has posted a usage rate of at least 28% in three of them. He averaged 0.94 fantasy points per minute during the regular season and has the ability to do some damage from a fantasy perspective.
Playing time hasn’t been an issue for George Hill, who has seen at least 30 minutes in each of the past four games. The problem has been Hill’s average of just 0.57 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is a marked decrease from his regular season average of (a still underwhelming) 0.71. That said, Hill did average over 25 DraftKings points per game during Games 3 and 4 and could be an interesting bounce-back candidate after just posting only 12.25 in Game 5.
Larry Nance Jr. might be the best value option on the Cavs. Nance is coming off approximately 17 minutes played in Game 5 and has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also one of the few Cavaliers to actually post a positive Net Rating during this series and thus could be a candidate for additional minutes moving forward.
Last but not least for the Cavaliers is Jeff Green, who is coming off his best game of the series in Game 5. Unfortunately, that wasn’t a very high bar to clear since Green scored 12 or less fantasy points in each of the first four games. He’s posted a usage rate of 19.3% during the postseason, but that number has dropped to just 14.2% in this series.
Celtics (97.75 implied points)
The Celtics are going to need someone to step up on the road if they’re looking to avoid returning to Boston for Game 7. Unfortunately, struggling on the road has plagued the Celtics for the duration of the playoffs; they own a 1-6 record when playing outside of the Boston Garden.
Al Horford has been their most consistent player over the course of the series, but he hasn’t displayed much of a ceiling over the past three games. Horford has struggled to score when matched up against Thompson, shooting just 3-of-14 from the field, but he’s made up for it by shooting a ridiculous 13-of-17 when matched up with Love. Horford’s appeal on this slate appears to hinge on just how much playing time Thompson gets in this matchup.
The Cavaliers slightly altered their defensive strategy as the series has progressed, and it’s had a significant effect on Jaylen Brown. He’s been guarded primarily by LeBron over the past two games, and James has held him to an average of 6.5 points per 100 possessions below his season average. Brown shot just 4-of-15 from the field in Game 5 and will likely continue to struggle as long as LeBron is serving is his primary defender.
With Brown struggling, Jayson Tatum is the primary candidate to pick up the offensive slack. Tatum was fantastic in Game 5, scoring 24 points on just 15 shots. Unfortunately, he’ll likely see a boost in ownership after the scoring outburst, but he still seems like a nice value on DraftKings as just the sixth-most expensive player on the slate.
Terry Rozier is a wild card. His home/road splits have been well documented, but he did score 49.0 DraftKings points in his most recent road game. The home/road narrative could drive Rozier’s ownership down a bit, making him an intruiging option.
Aron Baynes played nearly 30 minutes last game, his highest mark of the series, and that trend could continue Friday with the Cavs expected to play two traditional big men at almost all times. Baynes has been a productive player as of late, averaging 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he makes sense as a play at his current salary.
Marcus Morris and Marcus Smart round out the Celtics shortened rotation, and both have showed promise at times during this series. Morris is the safer bet for minutes — he played approximately 37.5 in Game 5 — but he’s averaged just 0.76 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Morris has been far less involved than usual on the offensive end, with his usage rate of 19.8% during this series representing a significant decrease from his regular-season average of 23.0%. Smart saw his playing time slashed in Game 5 as a response to Lue going with bigger lineups, which could make him an interesting buy-low option. Smart’s salary has decreased by $800 on DraftKings over the past few games, but he’s still projected for just under minutes in our NBA Models.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Jayson Tatum (left) and Larry Nance Jr. (right)
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski – USA Today Sports
