The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Mackenzie Gore (L) $8,300 Texas Rangers (+114) at Chicago White Sox
The start of the week had us spoiled for choice with top-end pitching options, but Wednesday offers much tougher sledding. Only one team on the seven-game slate is implied for less than four runs, and we don’t have a single pitcher with a median projection of 16 or higher. The leader of that lackluster group is the Rangers’ Mackenzie Gore, who narrowly edges out the rest of the field in median and ceiling projections.
On the positive side, his $8,300 price tag is appropriate for his projection, so he’s a solid value. In fact, “solid” is probably the best word for Gore all around. His 4.26 ERA with ERA predictors in the upper threes? Not great, but solid. A 26% strikeout rate? Same.
The challenge today might be the matchup. The White Sox are a top-10 team in wRC+ against lefties, though they strike out at a somewhat high rate. We’ve also got favorable hitting weather in Chicago, and Guaranteed Rate Field provides a 5% upgrade for bats compared with Gore’s home park in Texas. That explains why the White Sox are favored and have a somewhat high total despite facing a difficult starting pitcher in Gore.
Still, there’s a good chance that much of Chicago’s offense comes against the Texas bullpen, and Gore is fairly cheap for the slate’s highest-projected pitcher. His high ownership projection makes him a tough click for me in tournaments, but he’s a pretty obvious cash option.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Connor Prielipp (L) $6,200 Minnesota Twins (-138) at Athletics
Our current projections put Connor Prielipp within about a point and a half of the overall lead, despite his $6,200 price tag making him one of the cheapest options on the slate. That makes him a clear value play despite the theoretically tough conditions in Sacramento.
A lot of that is due to the matchup. The Athletics’ full-season numbers against lefties rank them in the bottom 10 in wRC+ and the top 10 in strikeouts. Those numbers also largely don’t account for all the injuries to their lineup. They’re without Shea Langeliers (173 wRC+ against lefties), along with Jacob Wilson, Nick Kurtz, and Tyler Soderstrom. This iteration of the A’s is basically a AAA lineup, so the matchup is much better than it appears on paper.
Prielipp’s 5.57 ERA is ugly, but his underlying numbers are closer to 4.00, with a strikeout rate just under 25%. He’s not a world-beater by any stretch, but can he live up to his meager salary in this matchup? Probably.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Sean Burke (R) $9,000 Chicago White Sox (-130) vs. Texas Rangers
Burke and the White Sox are slightly favored over the Rangers, with the two starters carrying extremely similar projections. It’s probably worth finding the extra $700 for Burke in tournaments, given his lower ownership projection and better overall numbers this season. He has to deal with the same difficult weather as Gore, but this is a softer matchup, so I’m more confident in Burke if I can find the salary.
Dustin May (R) $7,300 Milwaukee Brewers (-159) at New York Mets
I’m somewhat more confident in Dustin May as a salary-saving option than Prielipp, given that the Mets are the only team implied for less than four runs on the slate. Of course, May costs over $1,000 more, but he’s still extremely cheap for the pitcher with the most favorable moneyline odds and lowest opponent total on the slate. I’ll do my best to find the extra salary for May as my SP2 tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
For the third day in a row, the Twins are the highest-projected stack on the slate as they wrap up their series at the Coors Field of the AL, Sutter Health Field in Sacramento.
After scoring nine runs Monday, Minnesota was held to just two runs yesterday against A’s lefty Gage Jump. That was perhaps a predictable outcome in hindsight, given how much worse its wRC+ is against left-handed pitching. The good news is that tonight, Minnesota takes on A’s righty J.T. Ginn ($6,800).
Ginn presents a tougher matchup with a 3.60 ERA. However, his SIERA is 4.36, so he’s been a little lucky. The Twins are also a couple thousand dollars cheaper as tonight’s top stack than they were yesterday. That discount, combined with the lack of expensive pitchers, makes them easier to afford. I’m not exactly thrilled to roster them, but we don’t have many better options, and the salary is there to do so. That makes them the top stack tonight.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jonah Heim C ($3,900) Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins (Connor Prielipp)
I mentioned in the write-up of Prielipp that the A’s struggle against left-handed pitching, particularly with superstar catcher Shea Langeliers on the IL. Fortunately for the A’s, they have two catchers on the roster who smash southpaw pitching, the other being Jonah Heim. Here’s what their lineup looks like in PlateIQ:
A mini stack of their first three hitters is an option, but Heim is the clear standout as a one-off if you want some exposure to the A’s.
Jackon Chourio OF ($5,800) Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets (Robert Stock)
The Brewers are my favorite stack outside the game in Sacramento, thanks in large part to the matchup. Mets starter Robert Stock has a 5.40 ERA through four starts this season, which is actually his lowest mark since the COVID-shortened 2020 season, albeit in very limited action.
Milwaukee has a strong 4.8-run team total, the highest on the slate outside the Twins game, with most of that production likely to come from the top of the lineup. Chourio is their leadoff hitter, with a .797 OPS and 13 steals in 98 games played. Given the strong bats behind him, he also has a high probability of converting hits into runs – but this entry is really about stacking the Brewers in general.
Randall Grichuk OF ($3,400) Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers (Mackenzie Gore)
I already discussed the weather factors that give hitters an edge in Chicago. With chalk forming around Gore, rostering White Sox bats could be an interesting leverage option for larger tournaments.
My favorite option is Grichuk, whose $3,400 salary reflects his overall performance rather than his numbers against lefties. Not that his .281 average or .869 OPS is bad – those are very good numbers – but they jump to .320 and 1.017 against lefties. Those are elite numbers at an extremely cheap price, making him an excellent leverage play.
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Pictured: MacKenzie Gore
Photo Credit: Imagn
