UFC Sacramento DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Rodrigues vs. Hernandez Title Defenses, More Saturday Fights

The UFC is in California this week, with a fun middleweight main event between Gregory “Robocop” Rodriguez and Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez.

The 13-fight card is back to the standard 5:00 p.m. ET start time.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

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The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in tournaments, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Anthony Hernandez ($8,600) vs. Gregory Rodrigues ($7,600)

As is seemingly becoming the norm, UFC Sacramento isn’t a great card overall but features an extremely compelling main event. Anthony Hernandez was probably a fight away from the title when he lost to Sean Strickland in February (Strickland’s next fight was for the middleweight championship), while Rodrigues has won six of his last seven, including three straight.

The favorite, Hernandez, is known for his absurd pace and pressure, particularly while grappling. He averages just under six takedowns per 15 minutes, which is great for anyone but particularly elite at middleweight. Rodrigues has massive power and is known mostly as a striker in MMA but was a decorated BJJ athlete and wrestled on the Brazilian national team before coming to MMA.

On the feet, Hernandez will likely try to overwhelm Rodrigues with volume while avoiding the big power. If there’s a knock on “Fluffy,” it’s that he’s historically worn damage poorly, particularly from body shots. Rodrigues will be hunting the big strikes while trying to keep the fight on the feet, which is an easier task for him given his grappling background.

A Rodrigues win likely comes early while the larger man still carries most of his power, while an extended fight probably means plenty of takedowns and/or a late finish from Fluffy. Either way would lead to a big DFS score, so I want exposure to both guys in tournaments, and it’s a certain stack in cash games. Even if you’re confident in Hernandez, his late-finishing nature gives Rodrigues a solid floor, and the savings are very helpful.

The Easy Chalk

Anthony Wint ($9,900)

One of the reasons finding salary savers is so crucial is that there are so many appealing fighters at the top of the price range. That group is led by Anthony Wint, who, at $9,900, is effectively “max priced” on DraftKings. He’s also a -1000 favorite in his UFC debut, which comes just 11 days after he appeared on the Contender Series.

The former NFL linebacker (and all-state high school wrestler) is an elite athlete by any standards, but particularly in the UFC’s heavyweight division. He has massive power, plus a decent wrestling background, and trains with a solid team at Kill Cliff FC. He’s also been brought along reasonably slowly, with three amateur fights and seven pro appearances before his UFC debut proper.

He has what’s effectively another, slightly more highly paid, Contender Series fight this weekend against Terrance Chatman ($6,300), a 5-1 pro out of Texas whose best win came against a 3-1 opponent. Wint is -225 to get this done in the first round and could potentially show off some of his grappling here, giving him massive upside and a very safe floor, since he’s more than 70% implied to get a first-round win bonus.

His presence or absence in the optimal lineup likely hinges on getting this done in the first minute, but he’s done that in three straight fights against similar competition, so he’s an elite option if you have the salary.

The Upside Plays

Marcio Barbosa ($9,800)

Marcio Barbosa is the next expensive option here, and though he comes with “just” -185 odds to win in the first round, he’s a very similar caliber of play to Wint. While he’s less likely to pick up the first-minute finish, the featherweight can put out more volume if a fight extends late in the first round, giving him upside not entirely dependent on a quick win bonus.

His opponent is Ryan Kuse ($6,400), another debuting fighter who should probably have gone to the Contender Series. Kuse is 9-2 as a pro but already 32 years old, though, to his credit, he has never been finished despite facing two former UFC fighters. He’s a solid pro by all accounts but likely no match for Barbosa.

The Brazilian is 18-2 with five straight first-round knockouts, with the last coming in April. He needed just four significant strikes to finish Dennis Buzukja, which is a pretty strong indication of his massive power. There’s not much takedown upside here, but his upside is otherwise just as high as Wint’s, making him a fine pivot if you need the $100 in savings or want to diversify your lineups.

Lerryann Douglas ($9,300)

I’m expecting at least somewhat of an ownership discount on the fighters in the low-$9,000 range this week, since we have three fighters at $9,700 or higher who all project well (the two previously mentioned plus Shanelle Dyer). That means there’s an opportunity to get semi-contrarian with a fighter like Douglas, who is a massive favorite with even-money odds for a first-round stoppage.

He’s taking on veteran Jamall Emmers ($6,900), who is 37 years old and holds a 5-4 UFC record. Emmers has been somewhat unlucky, with two of those losses coming via split decision, but he’s also struggled with decision-making and failed to live up to his talents. The up-and-coming Douglas just knocked out a comparable fighter (Julian Erosa, 9-9 UFC record) in the first round and has six straight knockouts overall.

Douglas has a similar ceiling to the fighters priced above him but carries a bit more risk, as his grappling at the UFC level is untested, and Emmers will occasionally mix in takedowns. Emmers also has enough power to catch the somewhat reckless Douglas, though I have my doubts about his ability to actually hit him before getting put out himself.

For that reason, I prefer to spend up in cash games – though it’s hard to find the salary – while Douglas is an ideal tournament play.

The Value Play

Jeisla Chaves ($6,800)

Some value plays are underdogs with a sneaky shot at pulling off an upset at a cheap price. Others are bargain-priced punts that you hope can give you some points even in a loss, with Chaves being a prime example of the latter.

None of the fights from Sacramento are shorter than -120 to end inside the distance, so there isn’t really a comfortable, safe-floor play. Chaves is somewhat close, though, as she takes on Carli Judice ($9,400) as a heavy underdog. Judice is a high-volume striker but doesn’t have massive one-shot power, so Chaves should be able to extend this fight, at a minimum.

Chaves has already proven her toughness, coming out on top in one of the greatest Contender Series fights of all time in 2025. She survived a Round 2 knockdown against Sofia Montenegro while winning a split decision in a fight that saw both women awarded contracts. In her next fight, she flashed some grappling, picking up three takedowns against Yuneisy Duben in another split-decision win.

The combination of those factors with Judice getting taken down in four of her five UFC/DWCS fights means Chaves has a path both to points and to extending this fight, which is all we can ask for at her price tag. I’ll have her in cash games, plus a bit in tournaments in case a losing fighter sneaks into the optimal lineup.

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The Contrarian Choice

Wes Schultz ($7,500)

“Party Time” is probably my favorite overall play on the slate, for the simple reason that he has an extremely clear path to victory against Jackson McVey ($8,700).

This is a relatively low-level fight by UFC standards, with both middleweights picking up wins against weak opposition but losing when faced with solid opponents. It’s how they’ve won and lost that matters here, though. McVey has been submitted twice in the UFC and taken down four times in three fights, with a 0% takedown defense rate.

Schultz is 2-2 between the UFC and Contender Series, with both wins coming via submission and a rate of 2.39 takedowns per 15 minutes. The former college wrestler should be able to get this to the mat, where his somewhat unorthodox grappling could pay off. A $7,500 fighter with a specific and massive edge over his opponent is tremendously valuable.

Of course, Schultz has been knocked out in his two UFC/DWCS losses, while McVey has solid power – he won his last fight by submission but only after knocking down his opponent – so it wouldn’t be a shock for this to go the other way. However, with that level of volatility, I’m going to side with the cheaper option.

The Swing Fight

Shamil Gaziev ($8,400) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu ($7,800)

Heavyweight fights are typically a good option for the swing fight section, as the massive power and limited gas tanks on the big boys lead to plenty of variance. We’ve got three in Sacramento this weekend, the first of which is between Shamil Gaziev and Kennedy Nzechukwu.

Gaziev comes into this fight off consecutive knockout losses, both of which came in the last year. That’s a concerning sign for the 36-year-old, especially given the power coming from Nzechukwu. A former light heavyweight, six of Nzechukwu’s eight UFC wins have been knockouts, including two as a heavyweight. He’s younger, faster, and longer and should have a big striking edge here.

He’s also a terrible grappler with a limited gas tank, which plays right into the strengths of the Dagestani favorite. Gaziev doesn’t often grapple but has shown the ability in the past and should probably go that route early and often against a fighter who was taken down four times across his last two fights, one of which ended in a submission loss.

Gaziev is favored here since he’s nowhere near as lost on the feet as Nzechukwu is on the ground, but this is a fairly binary fight. Fortunately, either outcome should lead to a big score for the eventual winner, so I want plenty of both fighters in my tournament lineups while staying far away in cash games.

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Pictured: Anthony Hernandez
Photo Credit: Imagn Images