We’ve reached the final major championship of the year on the PGA TOUR, as the top pros in the world head to Royal Birkdale for the 154th Open Championship. The Open Championship is the oldest golf tournament in the world and comes loaded with plenty of drama and storylines each year. The elite field will take on a classic and difficult links-style course this year at Royal Birkdale Golf Club, which is hosting the event for the 11th time.
The 156 players in The Open Championship include 15 players from LIV Golf and a nice mix of big names from the DP World Tour and the PGA TOUR. Links-style golf in the ever-shifting weather of the English seaside sets up a great week of golf, so set your alarms early! Last year, Scottie Scheffler won this event to claim his first Open Championship and fourth major championship. For more info on the field, the format, and the course for this week, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
Especially in large-field tournaments, you’ll want to make sure to target players who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance suggests. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for tournament success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week to week than a hot putter.
Since these are tournament picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for tournament play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Scottie Scheffler $13,300
With such a strong field, many different stars can anchor your lineup. However, with his salary dropping for the 2nd tournament in a row, Scottie Scheffler seems like an excellent option to pay up for, based on how much value is available lower in the structure and how much pure upside he brings, based on the projections and simulations.
Scheffler has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections by a wide margin, and even though he has the 2nd-highest ownership projections as well, they don’t come close to matching up to how wide the margin is between him and the rest of the field in our models. He has the highest Perfect% in the field by a wide margin, which also gives him an extremely high SimLeverage, the highest in the field.
Last week, Scheffler missed the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open, but he is in a good spot to bounce back this week at The Open, even though no one has successfully defended their Open Championship title since Padraig Harrington in 2008, when he also won at Royal Birkdale.
Even though he hasn’t won since January, Scottie was playing very well before missing the cut last week. He finished runner-up at the Travelers Championship, the Cadillac Championship, the RBC Heritage, and the Masters. He had made the cut in 78 straight tournaments before struggling in Scotland, but he went to Royal Birkdale early to get his game back on track.
Scheffler has won 20 times on the PGA TOUR, including his 4 majors, and when he’s at his best, he can run away with a win. He hasn’t been able to do that since January, though, which could mean he’s due for a big week. Scheffler still ranks 1st in the field in SG:APP, SG:T2G, and Total Strokes Gained over the last 3 months. His putter has been his biggest issue, although last week in Scotland, his iron play was shaky as well.
Our models love him for a bounce-back week this week, and since the public is fading him a little, he makes a great leverage play for tournament lineups if you can find the right values to balance out his hefty price tag.
Justin Rose $9,100
Throughout his long career, Justin Rose has claimed one major championship at the 2013 U.S. Open, and he has had many other close calls. In his 87 career majors, he has 60 made cuts and 25 top-10 finishes. He has finished runner-up at The Open Championship twice, once in 2018 and once in 2024.
He burst onto the scene as an amateur at The Open Championship in 1998 at Royal Birkdale, when he holed out on the final hole to secure low-amateur honors by finishing in fourth place at just 17 years old. The veteran has made the cut in his two return trips to Royal Birkdale, with a T54 in 2017 and a 70th-place finish in 2008.
After a few quiet years, Rose has had a career resurgence in the past few seasons and has finished T2 and T16 in the last two Open Championships. He has 4 top-10 finishes in his career at The Open, but he has also missed 11 of 22 cuts. He is a boom-or-bust play that comes with risk, which is why he’s a good fit for tournament lineups this week.
Rose does come in with some solid form, though, after winning earlier this season at the Farmers Insurance Open in a runaway at Torrey Pines. He also finished T3 at the Masters as one of his 6 top-25 finishes in his last 9 events, including a T10 at the PGA Championship and a T11 at the U.S. Open. With those excellent finishes in majors, Rose has shown he still can step it up when it matters most.
An Englishman hasn’t won the Claret Jug since Nick Faldo in 1992, and there is a strong contingent of English golfers looking to end that drought this year. Rose has the 2nd-highest SimLeverage of the options between $7,000 and $11,000, so he brings good upside along with his low ownership projections, as the public chases other options around this price point.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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