The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chase Burns (R) $10,500 Cincinnati Reds (-144) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
We have an interesting decision to make tonight with the slate’s most expensive pitcher. Chase Burns is almost certainly the best real-life pitcher on the board today, but the combination of his slate-leading salary and relatively uninspiring Vegas data makes him a somewhat tough click.
We’ll start with the good, which is Burns’ performance to date in 2026. He has a 2.40 ERA and 29.7% strikeout rate, both of which are elite numbers. He’s been slightly lucky in terms of ERA but should probably be notching a few more strikeouts, so all things considered, his numbers are about right. That’s worked out to a slate-leading 22.2 DraftKings points coming into tonight.
With no pitcher projecting north of 20, even Burns’ average game would likely lead the slate. However, he’s facing tough pitching weather in a ballpark that favors bats, against a Philly team implied for more than 4 runs. The Phillies are a slightly below-average offense against righties this season but have plenty of power hitters that could turn things around in a hurry.
My expectation is that we get relatively low ownership on Burns, thanks to his price tag and the matchup. Combined with his massive upside, that makes him a great tournament choice. However, he’s not the safest pick, and we could probably find better use for his salary elsewhere in cash games, so he’s tournament-only for me tonight.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Connor Prielipp (L) $6,900 Minnesota Twins (-131) vs. Cleveland Guardians
We aren’t lacking for value options on Wednesday, with 4 of the slate’s 16 pitchers projecting for a Pts/Sal mark of 2.0 or higher. The (slight) leader of that group is Prielipp, who is probably underpriced by virtue of his own merits and almost certainly is when considering the matchup.
Prielipp’s 4.96 ERA looks rough at first glance, but he’s been weirdly unlucky. Of his main ERA indicators (SIERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP), the highest mark is 4.15, while the lowest is 3.64. Regardless of which advanced metric you believe in the most, he has been about a run better than his ERA indicates. Plus, he has a solid 23.8% strikeout rate while averaging over 5 innings per start, so if his ERA fell in line with expectations, he’d be a roughly $8,000 pitcher.
The matchup should go a long way toward helping that regression tonight. The Guardians are a bottom-5 unit against lefties on the season. Their current lineup is worse than that, though. Jose Ramirez hit .313 with a 160 wRC+ against southpaws for Cleveland this season but remains out of the lineup with an injury. Removing him from their overall numbers puts them in the Rockies’ territory of futility against left-handed pitching.
All of which makes Prielipp an elite option relative to his price tag and a great tournament partner for Burns considering the overall salary, as well as my favorite cash-game option among tonight’s pitchers.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Mackenzie Gore (L) $8,300 Texas Rangers (-158) vs. Los Angeles Angels
MacKenzie Gore is probably the best all-around option on tonight’s slate, trailing only Burns in median and ceiling projection while ranking 3rd in Pts/Sal. He’s facing an Angels team that strikes out more than 25% of the time against left-handed pitching and is implied for a slate-low 3.5 runs. He’s also projecting for the highest ownership on the slate, but we can get unique elsewhere if need be.
Christian Scott (R) $7,200 New York Mets (-153) vs. Kansas City Royals
Scott comes into the game with a 3.49 ERA and 28% strikeout rate through 11 starts this season, making his $7,200 price tag seem like a massive deal. He’s probably been a bit lucky on both accounts based on his underlying numbers, though, and he’s only totaled 49 innings in those starts. Still, the Royals (21st in wRC+ against righties) aren’t likely to be the ones to force much negative regression. He’s a solid partner for Prielipp if you’re trying to load up on expensive hitters tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers’ home series against the Rockies has been a mixed bag so far, with 8 runs in the first game but just 3 last night. They’re implied for a slate-high 6.2 runs tonight, more than a full run clear of any other team on the board.
However, it’s extremely difficult to roster their full stack, even if playing two cheap pitchers. For example, Prielipp, Scott, and this Dodgers lineup leave under $2,500 for the three remaining offensive slots. That’s doable, but certainly not ideal.
The bull case is that the Dodgers are facing Gabriel Hughes ($4,000), who was just recalled from AAA for this game. He had a 4.63 ERA in the minors this season and now faces the best offense in baseball, so the outlook is pretty bleak for him. I’m interested in rostering a few of the Dodgers’ bats with some down-lineup options. If this one gets out of hand, there’s a good chance some of the veteran superstars get an early night off, so it’s just a matter of getting lucky on rostering the productive hitters.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Miguel Vargas 3B ($5,100) Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox (Jake Bennett)
My plan yesterday to roster White Sox hitters against a Boston lefty didn’t work out well, with Chicago losing 8-1 at home. However, they remain a top-10 offense against southpaws and face another one tonight in Boston’s Jake Bennett ($7,700).
Let’s take one more look at Chicago’s PlateIQ page to see why mini stacks look so appealing tonight:
The first 3 hitters all have elite numbers, with the #4 and #9 bats also looking solid. A 1-2-3 mini stack makes a ton of sense, as does a 9-1-2-3-4 “wrap-around” stack if you want to go all in on Chicago.
Josh Smith 2B ($2,200) Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Walbert Urena)
Smith is hitting just .229 this season, with limited power and only 2 stolen bases in 39 games played. However, he’s also hitting second in a Texas lineup implied for a solid 4.2 runs, while priced just $200 over the minimum on DraftKings.
On a slate where salary is extremely tight if you want to roster the Dodgers, that $2,200 salary goes a long way. His 3.2 Pts/Sal projection is the best among any player on the slate, and in theory, you could win a tournament even without any points from Smith if it allows you the flexibility for other top bats. I’ll take my chances on him.
Juan Soto OF ($6,000) New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals (Steven Cruz)
The highest projection outside of the Dodgers belongs to Juan Soto of the Mets, who is currently the second-best hitter in all of baseball by wRC+. He’s also on the stronger side of his platoon splits by more than 200 points against right-handed pitchers Steven Cruz ($4,000) and Randy Dobnak ($4,000), with Cruz set to open the game and Dobnak coming in for long relief tonight.
Plus, Soto has been on fire lately, averaging over 20 DraftKings points per game across his last 3. I’m not sure how predictive that is in the long run, but it certainly doesn’t hurt — especially not against the Royals’ worst pitching, in a game with a 14% boost to scoring thanks to the weather.
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Pictured: Chase Burns
Photo Credit: Imagn
