The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jose Soriano (R) $9,700 Los Angeles Angels (-222) vs. Colorado Rockies
While I get especially excited to roster left-handed pitchers against the Rockies – thanks to their league-low 72 wRC+ mark against southpaws – they’re not exactly a good lineup against right-handed pitching. In fact, they’re also tied for the lowest mark in the league against righties, with an 87 wRC+. That means they’re roughly 13% worse than the average lineup when facing right-handed pitching.
This is good news for Soriano, who comes into the game with a 2.65 ERA and a 27% strikeout rate. Those numbers are (broadly) how we’d expect him to perform against an average opponent, so a 13% boost to those numbers takes him into elite territory. Of course, the Rockies are also away from their home ballpark, which favors hitters at the highest rate – a crucial consideration here.
Soriano and the Angels also have the best Vegas data on the slate as the heaviest favorites and with the lowest implied opponent total. There’s really not any holes to poke in the case for Soriano tonight, with the possible exception of his ownership projection. It’s currently fairly reasonable, though, despite his excellent projections.
While he’s not exactly cheap, we have enough value elsewhere that affording him isn’t especially challenging, and he’s the leader in median and ceiling projection. There’s no such thing as a “must play” in baseball, but Soriano is close.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Sean Manaea (L) $5,500 New York Mets (+117) at Seattle Mariners
One of those potential budget options comes in the form of Sean Manaea, who is stepping into a starting or “long opener” role for the time being with the Mets. He’s operated exclusively out of the bullpen this season, throwing 34 innings over 12 appearances and running up a 5.56 ERA.
That’s the bad news. On the positive side, he hasn’t actually been that bad. He’s striking out nearly 24% of opposing batters, leading to a solid SIERA of 3.62. His .370 BABIP also points to some bad luck, as his barrel and hard-hit rates are roughly in line with his performance over the past few seasons, where his BABIP was in the .290 range.
A game in T-Mobile Park is the perfect time for that luck to turn around, as the Mariners’ home ballpark has the best Park Factor for pitchers in all of baseball. Plus, the Mariners have been surprisingly bad against left-handed pitching, ranking 28th with a wRC+ of 80 as a team. Paired with his $5,500 salary, that’s enough to make Manaea the Pts/Sal leader.
The real question today is about how long he’ll last into the game, as a solid performance over just 3 innings wouldn’t be of much use for DFS. It also wouldn’t kill you at his salary, though, so it’s worth taking the gamble on him potentially lasting long enough to be eligible for a win.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Chase Burns (R) $10,200 Cincinnati Reds (-220) vs. Kansas City Royals
Chase Burns continues to dominate in his second MLB season, with an ERA below 2.00 and a 28.9% strikeout rate that should be considerably higher given his 15.2% swinging strike rate. The Royals are a slightly favorable matchup for righties, though that’s probably canceled out by Great American Ball Park’s park factors, meaning the likeliest outcome is a typical Burns start. He’s averaging just under 23 DraftKings points per outing, though, so a typical start would do just fine. Consider him a pay-up to be a contrarian pivot from Soriano.
Jacob deGrom (R) $9,200 Texas Rangers (-125) at St. Louis Cardinals
We currently have deGrom projecting as the most popular pitcher by a massive margin, with his projections roughly in line with both Burns and Soriano. On the one hand, that’s understandable, since he’s the cheapest of the three and has performed just as well so far this season. However, he has the toughest matchup of the trio with the Cardinals, so I prefer to find the extra salary to get one of the lower-owned options – but check back throughout the afternoon to see how ownership projections shake out. If deGrom ends up in a similar spot as the other two popularity-wise, he’d be a very strong play.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
As alluded to above, the Reds’ home stadium is one of the better hitters’ parks in baseball, and the best one available to us on Monday’s slate. That’s part of why they’re tied for the slate lead with their 5.2-run implied total.
Those teams they’re tied with have much more expensive top stacks, in part because star shortstop Elly De La Cruz is out after tweaking his hamstring on Sunday. Not being able to roster him hurts to an extent, but getting their best 5 players for just over $4,200 a head certainly eases the pain.
They’ve got a soft matchup against Luinder Avila ($5,000), a Royals reliever who is being called up from the bullpen to start this game. I’m not sure how long Kansas City plans on leaving him in, but he has a 5.06 ERA through 10 appearances across 21.1 innings so far this season. A short start or bullpen game is probably a good thing for the Reds, but so are extra at-bats against Avila.
Crucially, stacking the Reds would also allow you to roster two of the top 3 pitchers on the slate relatively comfortably, which could be the deciding factor for taking down a GPP tonight.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jo Adell OF ($3,500) Los Angeles Angels vs. Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
I almost included Kyle Freeland ($5,300) as a potential pitching option, based on the “Rockies pitcher away from home” logic. That is, until I looked into his numbers. Freeland has an ERA over 8.00 both at home and on the road, with the road ERA actually slightly higher.
That makes Angels hitters very much in play, especially those with good splits against left-handed pitching. Obviously, I turned to PlateIQ to figure out who those were:
Adell jumps off the screen here, especially when considering his $3,500 salary. It would be nice if he was higher up in their lineup, but outside of that everything is pointing his way.
Corbin Carroll OF ($5,600) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Emmet Sheehan)
Emmet Sheehan ($7,800) is the weakest link in the Dodgers’ elite pitching rotation. He’d probably be the #2 or #3 starter on almost every other team, but his 4.70 ERA and 3.88 xERA are pretty bad by the Dodgers’ standards, making this a rare opportunity to roster hitters against them.
Crucially, most of his struggles have been against lefties. Left-handed hitters have a .377 wOBA against Sheehan, while righties are at just .281. The left-handed Carroll has a wOBA 27 points higher against righties in his career, making this the perfect time to roster him. On top of that, Carroll is borderline elite anyway, with a .916 OPS, 7 home runs, and 7 steals on the season. We don’t really need an excuse to play him, but tonight is one of the better spots.
Alec Burleson 1B ($3,800) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Texas Rangers (Jacob deGrom)
Given the massive ownership projection on deGrom, there’s probably some value in rostering hitters against him in lineups with 2 other starting pitchers. The Cardinals don’t make that especially easy, but Burleson is my favorite (price-considered) choice.
He’s somewhat underpriced for a player with a .281 average and 7 home runs this season, and his average jumps to .316 against righties with a .910 OPS. He’s not an elite option by any stretch, but if he drives in a couple of runs that take points away from deGrom lineups, it’s a massive leverage opportunity.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket promo code.
Pictured: Jose Soriano
Photo Credit: Imagn
