The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cam Schlittler (R) $10,700 New York Yankees (-138) at Milwaukee Brewers
We’ve seen a number of young pitchers emerge as studs over the past few seasons, with Schlittler chief among them. He was excellent after being promoted to the majors by the Yankees last season, and he’s been even better so far this season. Through eight starts, Schlittler has racked up five wins with a 1.52 ERA, 1.72 FIP, and 10.08 K/9. He has become the betting favorite to win the AL Cy Young award at roughly +230.
Schlittler will have his work cut out for him Saturday vs. the Brewers. Milwaukee was the best team in baseball last season, despite having a fraction of the payroll of teams like the Dodgers and Mets. They haven’t been quite as good this season, but they’re still ninth in wRC+ against right-handers with a paltry 19.7% strikeout rate.
Despite the matchup, Schlittler still stands out as the clear top stud pitcher on the slate. He’s tied for the lowest opponent implied run total (3.6), and he owns the top K Prediction. As a result, he leads all starters in median and ceiling projection. There aren’t an abundance of elite arms to choose from on Saturday, but Schlittler has established himself as one of them.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Braxton Ashcraft (R) $7,700 Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) at San Francisco Giants
The Giants are off to a disastrous start this season. They’re currently sitting at just 15-23, which ties them for the worst record in the National League. They’ve already started to sell off pieces, trading Patrick Bailey for the No. 29 pick in the upcoming draft and a pitching prospect. Offensively, the Giants rank dead last in MLB in runs per game, and they’re 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handers.
Ashcraft will get to match up with the Giants on Saturday, which immediately puts him in the DFS conversation. However, Ashcraft has also been excellent in his own right this season. He’s pitched to a 3.02 ERA, and his 2.64 xERA puts him in the 89th percentile. Ashcraft also ranks in the 81st percentile for strikeout rate, so he has the potential to rack up fantasy points in this spot.
Ashcraft has gone at least seven innings in two of his past three outings, and his 3.6 opponent implied run total is tied for the best mark on the slate. His $7,700 salary also comes with a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, so he checks all the boxes for a value pitcher.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Landon Roupp (R) $9,200 San Francisco Giants (-105) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
On the other side of that matchup, Roupp has some appeal for the struggling Giants. The Pirates’ offense hasn’t been nearly as bad as the Giants’, but Roupp looks pretty similar to Ashcraft on paper. He’s pitched to a 2.64 xERA this season, thanks primarily to some elite batted-ball data. He ranks in the 97th percentile or better in barrel and hard-hit rate, while he’s in the 90th percentile for groundball rate. The big difference is that he’s projected for less than 10% ownership on this slate, making him a solid pivot for tournaments.
Merrill Kelly (R) $6,200 Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) vs. New York Mets
The Mets have started to turn things around just a bit recently, winning five of their last seven games, but their offense remains a major question mark. They had just one run and three hits before extra innings on Friday, and they’re still just 29th in runs per game. Kelly is not a particularly good pitcher – far from it – but everyone has some appeal when facing the Mets at the moment. He leads all starters in projected Plus/Minus at a dirt-cheap salary.
Edward Cabrera (R) $7,400 Chicago Cubs (-137) at Texas Rangers
Cabrera was acquired by the Cubs this offseason after a breakout campaign with the Marlins last year. So far, he’s left a bit to be desired. His numbers are fine on paper, but his advanced metrics suggest some possible regression. Still, he pitches for the Cubs, who are the hottest team in baseball at the moment. Cabrera is a slight favorite vs. the Rangers, and he has some strikeout upside as well. The Rangers’ projected lineup has a 25.3% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the fifth-worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers are often the top stack whenever they’re available, and Saturday is no exception. They’re currently implied for 4.9 runs vs. Spencer Strider and the Braves, which is the fourth-best mark on the slate.
While Strider may have been a tough matchup in the past, arm injuries have left him as a shell of his previous self. He pitched to a 4.45 ERA last season, while his average fastball velocity was down nearly four miles per hour from his peak. In his first start of 2026, Strider’s average fastball velocity was even slower, while he allowed three earned runs in just 3.1 innings of work.
The Dodgers have the potential of making any starter who isn’t on his A-game look foolish. Their lineup is loaded with elite players, and they’re only getting better by the year. The emergence of guys like Andy Pages and Dalton Rushing makes them even more formidable than in years past. Their projected lineup for Saturday doesn’t include Rushing, but it’s still one of the deepest groups of hitters in the league (via Plate IQ):
As usual, the only downside with the Dodgers is their price tag. Using their top five hitters makes pairing them with Schlittler nearly impossible. Add in the fact that there are some other teams with superior implied team totals on this slate, and it’s possible that the Dodgers go a bit overlooked on this slate.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Mitch Garver, C ($2,100) Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox (Anthony Kay)
Finding a cheap catcher with upside is always appealing in MLB DFS, and Garver fits that description perfectly on Saturday. He’s always had some pop, especially when facing a southpaw, and that will be the case vs. the White Sox. Anthony Kay has struggled to a 7.62 xERA so far this season, and right-handed batters have absolutely feasted against him. They’ve posted a .347 batting average and .632 slugging percentage across 22.1 innings, including six homers.
Garver ultimately leads all batters in projected Plus/Minus using our blended projection set. His cheap price tag also opens up a lot of different options for the rest of your lineup.
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B ($4,400) Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers (Ty Madden)
Pasquantino had a breakout year for the Royals in 2025. He cooled off just a smidge down the stretch, but he still posted a 125 wRC+ and .280 ISO over the second half of the year. The power numbers were particularly impressive, with Pasquantino nearly doubling his previous career high in homers.
Pasquantino isn’t off to the same type of start this season, but perhaps he can turn things around vs. the Tigers. The Royals have the second-highest implied team total of the day at 5.1 runs, and they’re expected to face Ty Madden after dealing with Burch Smith as an opener. Madden impressed in his first major league outing this season, but he’s not a particularly exciting prospect. Vegas is giving the Royals plenty of respect in this matchup, and Pasquantino trails only Shohei Ohtani in projected Plus/Minus at first base.
Juan Soto, OF ($6,300) New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (Merrill Kelly)
Despite the Mets’ struggles as a whole, Soto is having a pretty typical Soto season. He owns a 142 wRC+ with four homers, and most of his advanced metrics suggest he’s performed below expectations.
Soto and the rest of the offense will have a chance to break out vs. Kelly. He has been downright terrible so far this season, pitching to a 9.95 ERA and 11.75 xERA across his four starts. If the Mets can’t get going in this matchup, their offense might officially be broken.
Pictured: Cam Schlittler
Photo Credit: Imagn
