The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryan Woo (R) $10,000 Seattle Mariners (-167) at Los Angeles Angels
Since games are spread throughout the day on Friday, the night slate of MLB DFS fantasy baseball includes the four games that start after 9:30 p.m. ET. The top arm on the board for the evening in the FantasyLabs projections is Bryan Woo, who takes on the Angels in their home opener on Friday night.
Woo has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of the pitchers in play this Friday, with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus. He has the second-highest strikeout prediction as well, and his opponents’ implied runs are tied for the lowest on the board.
In his first start of the season, Woo earned 24.5 DraftKings points by giving up two runs in six innings to the Guardians. He had nine strikeouts, one walk, and only a 30.8% hard-hit rate against him. The 26-year-old is coming off a 15–7 record last season with a 2.94 ERA, 3.47 FIP, and 9.6 K/9. He faced the Angels twice last season, totaling 19 strikeouts in 12 innings and allowing only four runs.
Last season, the Angels’ lineup led the majors in K%, and they’re back near the top again, ranking third behind the A’s and White Sox. They lead the majors with 80 strikeouts on the season, averaging 11.4 strikeouts per game.
Woo has a good chance to rack up some strikeouts and pick up a win if he continues the success from his first start. If his salary works with the rest of your roster, he is a strong play to build around.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Reid Detmers (L) $7,500 Los Angeles Angels (+139) vs. Seattle Mariners
Reid Detmers has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all starting pitchers on Friday night on the other side of the Angels–Mariners AL West matchup. Detmers will go head-to-head with Bryan Woo, which means only one of them can get the win. Putting them both in the same lineup does slightly lower the overall ceiling, but their strikeout upside still makes that strategy worth considering on this smaller slate.
Detmers has the highest strikeout prediction on the board and will look to continue his conversion back to a role in the starting rotation after spending last year working out of the bullpen. Detmers earned 18.3 DraftKings points in his first start of the year against the Astros, working 4 2/3 innings with nine strikeouts and giving up three runs on six hits.
Last season in 62 2/3 innings as a reliever, he posted a 3.96 ERA and 3.12 FIP, which were huge improvements over his numbers as a starter in 2024. He has always brought very high strikeout potential, and he can often compensate for a few runs allowed with a big strikeout performance, as he did in his first start of the year.
The Mariners have the fourth-most strikeouts in the majors this season, with a 29.4% K% against lefties and only a 71 wRC+ in the split. Seattle’s lineup definitely has some pop, but they strike out enough to be a solid matchup for Detmers as he looks to return value while stepping up to start his team’s home opener.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Eduardo Rodriguez (L) $7,000 Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) vs. Atlanta Braves
The Braves went off for 17 runs on Thursday night, and the Diamondbacks finished the game with catcher James McCann pitching the final inning. On Friday, they’ll look to turn the series around by giving the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez, who has an intriguing upside and comes at a low ownership level due to his higher risk.
Rodriguez was one of the heroes in Venezuela’s World Baseball Classic, shutting down a stacked Team USA lineup in the championship game. He carried over that success to his first start of the season with five strong innings against the Dodgers, allowing just one unearned run while striking out five and earning 17.65 DraftKings points in a no-decision.
This season, Rodriguez came to camp about 25 pounds lighter with adjustments to his curveball and fastball that have paid off so far. He was strong throughout the spring and has shown a high ceiling in the past, but he is also high-risk on this slate since he had a 5.10 ERA and 4.90 FIP at home last season, and the Braves’ lineup has plenty of power potential.
He’s a boom-or-bust play but should bring enough leverage to consider as a value pivot on Friday night at Chase Field.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Houston Astros:
The Astros lead the MLB with 45 runs this season, while hitting .268 with a .365 wOBA as a team. Coming into their first road game of the season, they have won five straight games, including a sweep of the Red Sox. They’ll take on the Athletics on Friday night in the first game this season at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.
The top five hitters in the lineup are the top stack on the board by rating, with Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez leading the way, as usual. They have a slate-high 5.2-run implied total as they take on lefty Jeffrey Springs ($6,300). Springs gave up two runs on five hits in his first start this season after going 11–11 with a 4.11 ERA and 4.65 FIP in his first season with the Athletics last year. He had an elevated 4.81 ERA at home, giving up a .327 wOBA at home and a .314 wOBA to right-handed hitters, who hit 25 of the 28 home runs against him.
None of the Astros have homered off Springs in the past, but Christian Walker is 2-for-4 in their past meetings, and Isaac Paredes typically crushes lefties and is 4-for-14 with three doubles on that side of the splits already this season.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Nick Kurtz 1B ($5,200) Athletics vs. Houston Astros (Cristian Javier)
Nick Kurtz is off to a slow start this season, but hopefully coming home to Sutter Health Park can energize his bat. The models indicate a big bounce-back is coming since he has the highest ceiling projection of any hitter on the slate in the aggregate projection and the third-highest Plus/Minus projection.
Kurtz is 1-for-17 (.059) to start the season with a single as his only hit to go with four walks. The 21-year-old slugger was fine in spring training, smashing three homers and three doubles in 53 at-bats. He had a 54.1% hard-hit rate in spring training but only a 33.3% hard-hit rate and no barrels in his first six games to start the year.
Last year, Kurtz destroyed Major League pitching with 36 homers and a .419 wOBA in his 117 games after his promotion. He hit 22 of those 36 homers at home with a .290 batting average and .431 wOBA at Sutter Health Park.
He will look to get rolling in his return to Sacramento against Cristian Javier, who had a rough start to his season as well. Javier gave up six runs and two homers in 4 2/3 innings against the Angels. He served up a pair of homers and issued four walks while striking out just one. Kurtz is 1-for-3 with a double off Javier in their past meetings.
Carlos Correa 3B/SS ($3,700) Houston Astros at Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
Carlos Correa continues to be very affordable with his salary under $4,000, and he gets a good matchup against Jeffrey Springs at Sutter Health Park, which may not be quite as hitter-friendly as it will be later in the summer, but it still should be a high-scoring environment.
On Wednesday, Correa connected on his first homer of the season and is hitting .296 with a .352 wOBA and 41.7% hard-hit rate in the early going this year. He had good power numbers against lefties last year with a .440 SLG and .345 wOBA on that side of his splits.
Since the veteran righty can fit at either 3B or SS, he brings good versatility to your roster constructions on Friday. Here’s how the Astros look in Plate IQ as they head into their favorable matchup against Springs in Sacramento:
Alek Thomas OF ($2,900) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves (Grant Holmes)
In the aggregate projections, Alek Thomas has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection of outfielders under $3,000 and the third-highest Plus/Minus projection of all outfielders outside of the Athletics–Astros game. The 25-year-old lefty hasn’t been able to turn the corner yet in his time in the majors but still brings high upside with both home run and stolen base potential.
In his six games this season, Thomas has gone 3-for-23 (.130) with three doubles, two stolen bases, and a walk. He has a 56.3% hard-hit rate and a .430 xSLG that indicate he’s due for some positive regression if he keeps making such good contact.
Thomas and the D-backs are looking to bounce back from a bad loss on Thursday in the series opener, but they have a relatively favorable matchup against Grant Holmes, who gave up three runs on five hits and took the loss against the Royals.
In his six games, Thomas is averaging 6.5 DraftKings points per game with a high point of 23 DraftKings points last week against the Dodgers when he had two doubles and a stolen base. He brings that kind of good upside to Friday’s matchup from his affordable salary under $3,000.
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Pictured: Bryan Woo
Photo Credit: Imagn
