The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale (L) $9,700 Atlanta Braves (-142) vs. Kansas City Royals
With several series just starting on Friday’s seven-game schedule, it remains a well-stocked slate of aces across the board. The top two arms go head-to-head as Sale and the Braves host Cole Ragans and the Royals. Both of these lefties are strong strikeout options, which, with DraftKings’ scoring system, is paramount to target.
Sale has enjoyed a great career resurgence since heading to Atlanta before the 2024 season. While he couldn’t match his Cy Young season from 2024, he still provided plenty of production last year. He posted a 2.58 ERA and 2.67 FIP, and he actually improved his strikeout rate, picking up 165 strikeouts in just 125 1/3 innings. He signed an extension this spring and recorded 15 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings while allowing six runs.
He has a favorable matchup against the Royals, who have the fourth-lowest implied run total on the board. The Royals’ lineup leans left-handed, and Sale held lefties to a paltry .163 average last season. The weather will be warm and a little windy, which will generally favor bats, but the Royals struggled offensively last year and return much of the same core.
Sale has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in our models, and he also has the highest strikeout prediction on the board. He’s a great pay-up play if you have the salary available for his first start of 2026.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Mike Burrows (R) $6,500 Houston Astros (-160) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Astros acquired Burrows from the Pirates in a three-way trade this offseason. Burrows is a bargain in his first start for the ‘Stros and has a favorable spot for his Houston debut against the Angels. The Angels won on Opening Day, 3-0, but Burrows should be set to help his new team get in the win column Friday night.
Burrows has the second-highest strikeout prediction behind only Sale on Friday night’s slate, and he has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all starting pitchers as well.
Last year, in 96 innings with the Pirates, Burrows put together a 3.94 ERA and 4.00 FIP with a 9.1 K/9. His Triple-A numbers show even more potential, as he posted a 2.51 ERA and 11.4 K/9 in 32 1/3 innings with Indianapolis.
The Astros saw enough potential in Burrows to add him to their roster and have made some adjustments to his grips and pitches. He may not be ready for a Gerrit Cole-style leap, but the Astros have repeatedly gotten the most from pitchers they acquire via trade. In spring training, it looked like Burrows could be the next example. He gave up just three runs in 18 innings while racking up 17 strikeouts. He didn’t allow any runs in his first four games, spanning 12 2/3 innings, but he did get knocked around a bit by the Mets in his final tuneup.
Burrows brings an extremely high ceiling against the Halos, who ranked in the bottom six last season in runs, batting average, and wOBA while posting the highest K% in the majors.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Emmet Sheehan (R) $7,800 Los Angeles Dodgers (-250) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sheehan has the highest leverage of all starting pitchers in our projections on Friday, and his lower ownership levels make him an attractive option in the late game for the Dodgers. Sheehan has shown an extremely high ceiling and plenty of punchout potential, but he has been volatile, which makes him perfect for GPP builds where swinging for the fences is the way to go. Sheehan put together a 2.82 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 89 strikeouts over 73.1 innings in 15 appearances last year. Even though he may not go deep into the game, he could record enough strikeouts and a good shot at a win to be worth this salary.
Michael King (R) $7,700 San Diego Padres (-120) vs. Detroit Tigers
King is looking to regain his dominant 2024 form after making only 15 starts last season and watching his FIP jump from 3.33 to 4.42. Like Sheehan, he has big strikeout potential but also may not pitch deep into the game. He was knocked around in his last spring start as well, which should keep his ownership low in this matchup with the Tigers’ strong lineup. He does have a high ceiling, however, which is why he can be a contrarian play in GPP builds.
George Kirby (R) $8,500 Seattle Mariners (-175) vs. Cleveland Guardians
After the Guardians took the opener in this series on Thursday, the Mariners give the ball to Kirby on Friday. His ownership looks lower than expected with so many other strong aces on the board and good upside plays under $8,000. He’s a classic “pay up for leverage” spot against the Guardians, who don’t normally have the power they showed in the opener. Kirby will look to quiet them down and get 2026 off to a strong start. He was very solid this spring, with two runs or fewer allowed in four games and 11 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The mighty Dodgers are sure to be regularly recurring characters in this spot in our picks, since their power-packed offense will be a great one to build stacks from all year long. The top five in the lineup are the top stack for Friday, even though they are pricey at over $25,000 total.
The Dodgers have a slate-high 5.3-run implied total as they take on Ryne Nelson ($6,200) and the Dbacks after winning 8-3 in their season opener on Thursday. Nelson went 7-3 last year with a 3.39 ERA and 3.73 FIP, but he struggled on the road with a 4.26 ERA and 4.49 FIP. The Dodgers faced him three times and scored four runs on 10 hits in 13 innings in those three games.
Nelson was good against lefties, so right-handed bats like Will Smith and Mookie Betts are especially strong plays this Friday.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Otto Lopez SS($3,100) Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
The Marlins get one of the better matchups on the board this Friday against lefty Kyle Freeland and the Rockies. Freeland was an innings-eater for Colorado last year, going 5-17 with a 4.98 ERA and 4.18 FIP in 162 2/3 innings. He actually gave up more homers on the road than at home at Coors Field but was very hittable in almost every location, especially by righties who hit .300 with a .352 wOBA against him.
Lopez is one of several Marlins righties who could make a splash in the first game of the season for the Fish. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any hitter in the aggregate projections. The 27-year-old righty broke out last year, hitting 15 homers while stealing 15 bases and hitting .246 with a .295 wOBA in 143 games. He was better against righties and on the road last year, but he should be in a great lineup spot against Freeland.
Lopez went 5-for-19 for Team Canada in the WBC and hit .292 with a homer in his eight games in spring training. He’s a very nice value at $3,100, especially if he hits second in the order against Freeland, as expected.
Willi Castro 3B/OF ($3,000) Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins (Sandy Alcantara)
The Rockies added Castro as part of their offseason overhaul as they handed the reins to the new front office led by Paul DePodesta and Josh Byrnes. Castro signed a two-year, $12.8 million contract and should hit near the top of the order for the Rockies. He’ll be valuable at Coors Field, but he also makes sense as a bargain play in this contest in Miami.
Castro spent last year with the Twins and Cubs, hitting a combined .226 but with 11 homers and 10 stolen bases. He hit over .240 in each of his three previous seasons and offered a solid blend of power and speed. This spring, he went a blistering 13-for-25 (.520) with three doubles and a home run while also stealing two bases in three attempts. He has a lot of different ways he can deliver, and his positional versatility to slide to the outfield or the hot corner makes him easy to fit into lineups this Friday.
Here’s what to expect from the new-look Rockies in Plate IQ as they take on Sandy Alcantara ($7,500) in their season opener:
Carlos Correa 3B/SS ($3,200) Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels (Yusei Kikuchi)
Correa and the Astros were shut out in their season opener against the Angels, but they have a good bounce-back spot against Yusei Kikuchi. Correa is still very affordable at only $3,200 and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 3B (behind Castro) and at SS (behind Lopez).
Against Kikuchi in his career, Correa is an impressive 14-for-28 (.500) with two doubles and a triple. While he went 0-for-4 in Thursday’s opener, he hit in a premium lineup spot as the cleanup man against Jose Soriano, who pitched very well. Kikuchi was great against lefties last year, but righties like Correa hit 23 homers with a .264 batting average and .336 wOBA against the southpaw.
Correa wasn’t able to play in the WBC for insurance reasons, but the 31-year-old hit .292 with a home run in his 10 spring training games. He seems very underpriced for this matchup and is a nice place to grab value against Kikuchi.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket invite code.
Pictured: Chris Sale
Photo Credit: Imagn
