The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Garret Crochet (L) $9,700 Boston Red Sox (-159) at Cincinnati Reds
Opening Day means, almost by definition, that most of the aces are out across baseball. That means plenty of high-priced arms, and picking one standout is both difficult and vitally important. A good place to start is targeting the pitcher likeliest to give you strikeouts, given how heavily weighted Ks are in DraftKings’ scoring system.
Enter Garret Crochet, who led the league with 255 of them in 2025 and should still be improving at 26 years old. The Red Sox ace also posted a 2.59 ERA and similar underlying numbers, so run prevention isn’t a concern either. What separates him from the pack today is the matchup. While many of the game’s best pitchers have somewhat difficult matchups, Crochet is taking on the Reds, a bottom-five team in wRC+ against lefties last season.
With the Reds not making any major improvements to their lineup this season, it’s hard to see that number changing much, making this a good spot for Crochet – who is also a few hundred dollars cheaper than the other elite options. My one concern is the conditions, since Great American Ball Park is fairly offense-friendly, and the forecast for tomorrow has the temperature around 80 degrees. That’s not ordinarily an issue, but given the terrible hitting conditions in many late-March games, Crochet is at a slight disadvantage.
Still, he’ll be the foundation of most of my lineups, as he’s the clear leader in both median and ceiling projections in our models.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jacob Misiorowski (R) $7,500 Milwaukee Brewers (-185) vs. Chicago White Sox
The Brewers let their young ace throw just 66 big-league innings (and 129 overall innings) last season, but when he was on the mound it was electric. With a fastball that averaged over 99 mph, Jacob Misiorowski put on a show and racked up an elite 31.9% strikeout rate in 2025 – which would’ve been second in all of baseball and first in the NL if he threw enough to qualify.
That all happened when he was just 22 and facing MLB hitters for the first time. Now with some experience under his belt, the sky is the limit for the former second-round draft pick. He gets an ideal start against the Chicago White Sox, a brutal offense in 2025 that is heavily reliant on young players this season. Even if some of those players work out, odds are there will be a learning curve. That makes the time to target pitchers against them now.
The range of outcomes on Misiorowski is fairly wide here, though. He was limited to well under 5 innings per start last season even when fully ramped up, so he could get an extremely quick hook to start the season. However, most starters will have limited pitch counts on Opening Day, so that’s actually less of a concern than it might be otherwise. Given his discount relative to other arms of his level, he might not even need that many innings to pay off in DFS.
Misiorowski has the best Pts/Sal projection of any pitcher on the slate, making him an obvious starting point in both cash games and GPPs.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Hunter Brown (R) $9,500 Houston Astros (-184) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The theme of our GPP options this week is expensive studs who probably don’t pitch deep enough into the game to pay off their price tags. The upside of that is their salaries likely keep their ownership levels lower than we’d normally expect, so if they have an especially efficient outing, the reward is bigger for guessing right. Brown finished last season with an ERA of 2.43 and 10 Ks per 9 innings, so he’s certainly efficient. He also has a relatively solid matchup against the Angels, who were a bottom-five offense last season and are in rebuilding mode this year.
Tarik Skubal (L) $10,500 Detroit Tigers (-130) at San Diego Padres
Skubal takes the “pay up to be contrarian” idea to its logical conclusion as the slate’s most expensive pitcher. He’s also the best pitcher in the AL, if not all of baseball, with back-to-back Cy Young awards and three straight seasons of 30% or higher K rates. The Padres are a tough matchup, though, which combined with his price point will probably keep my exposure to him limited.
Paul Skenes (R) $10,000 Pittsburgh Pirates (-100) at New York Mets
Skenes is the only other reasonable answer to “best pitcher in baseball” outside of Tarik Skubal, but like his AL counterpart, he’s pricey, unlikely to pitch deep in the game, and faced with a somewhat tough matchup. The leash on Skenes is likely even shorter than the one Skubal has, so if I’m spending this much, I prefer finding an extra $500, but Skenes brings similar upside if you can’t get to Skubal for salary reasons.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
The somewhat-obvious corollary to all of the aces taking the mound on Opening Day is that runs will be somewhat difficult to come by. That factor is compounded by relatively difficult hitting weather in most of the games today, which further limits how much upside we can expect.
Due to those factors, it probably makes more sense to save salary on hitters and spend up at pitcher. This Cubs stack allows you to do that with their $21,800 price tag, and their 4.6-run implied total is just 0.1 runs shy of the best on the slate.
A lot of that comes down to the matchup against Nationals starter Cade Cavalli ($6,300). While he’s Washington’s “ace” in that he’s their Opening Day starter, he finished 2025 with a 4.25 ERA and similar underlying numbers while making just 10 starts. That would make him somewhere between the third and fifth starter in most rotations this season.
Unfortunately, the Cubs are stuck with one of the tougher weather spots on the slate. Still, with the combination of value and solid matchup they offer, I’m willing to take a chance on less-than-ideal conditions.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Trevor Story SS ($4,000) Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
The Red Sox have one of the better situations on the slate today thanks to this matchup being in Cincinnati. The forecast calls for temperatures approaching 80 degrees, and Great American Ball Park is one of the best parks in baseball for home runs. It’s especially beneficial for righties like Story, who not only get to face a left-handed starter but also benefit from wind blowing to left field.
Reds ace Andrew Abbott isn’t a pitcher I’m going out of my way to target, thanks to his 2.87 ERA last season, but he was somewhat lucky, with ERA predictors in the mid-threes despite a rough home ballpark. With Story being the only righty at the top of Boston’s lineup and also the cheapest bat, he’s probably the best way to take advantage of the situation there. Plus, with lefty bats before and after him in the lineup, there’s a good chance he faces more southpaws out of the bullpen.
Story has the best Pts/Sal projection of any hitter on the slate priced above $3,200.
Yandy Diaz 1B/3B ($4,400) Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
I had to triple-check the forecast in St. Louis when I saw the numbers on Weather Edge: gametime temperature above 90 degrees, with strong winds blowing out to left center that boost home runs nearly 30%. That’s quite the anomaly in late March.
With the Rays facing off with southpaw Matthew Liberatore ($6,000), that’s an even bigger boost to right-handed bats. Diaz is my favorite of the bunch from the Rays, thanks to his absurd numbers against lefties last season. Check them out in Plate IQ:
With Liberatore also one of the weaker pitchers on the slate (4.21 ERA last season), I’m all in on Rays righties today.
Carlos Correa 3B/SS ($3,200) Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels (Jose Soriano)
I was surprised to see the price tag on Correa, who we have projected to bat cleanup in the Astros lineup. With Houston implied for a slate-leading 4.7 runs, that information alone is enough that he’s probably a value at just $3,200.
Plus, it’s not like Correa was bad last season. He finished with a 106 wRC+ mark and is still just 31 years old. Angels starter Jose Soriano ($6,200) doesn’t exactly instill fear in opposing hitters, nor does their bullpen. With the premium placed on saving up for arms today, I’ll gladly take the value on Correa, especially with him being eligible at multiple positions.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket invite code.
Pictured: Garrett Crochet
Photo Credit: Imagn
