The NBA has eight games on Thursday night’s schedule, as a busy week of action continues. The first six of those games are on the main DFS fantasy basketball slate, which tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Bulls, Clippers, Lakers and Pelicans are finishing out back-to-back sets of games as they take the floor this Thursday, and it will once again be critical to monitor the injury report leading up to tip-off, especially for those teams playing for a second night in a row. As players’ availability is finalized throughout the day, the models will change and adjust, so be sure to check back before tip-off.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
In the FantasyLabs projections, Luka Doncic has the highest median, ceiling and floor projections on the entire slate as he leads the Lakers to Miami to take on the Heat. While the return of LeBron James will definitely get plenty of attention, it’s the second night of the team’s back-to-back, so James may be less than full speed.
Doncic has been carrying a heavy workload for Los Angeles lately and helped the team secure back-to-back wins in Houston, extending their winning streak to seven straight games. Doncic had 40 points, 10 assists and 70.75 DraftKings points in his team’s win on Wednesday and has at least 70 DraftKings points in four of his last five games with an average of 72.1 DraftKings points per game over that stretch.
The Heat play at the fastest pace in the NBA, so the Lakers will be in a good pace-up spot, even though fatigue is a concern after their big win on Wednesday night. The matchup has the highest point total on the board, according to our Vegas dashboard. Despite his massive salary, Luka makes sense as a building block because he offers a high ceiling and has consistently produced good value.
Value
With Cade Cunningham (back) out, Daniss Jenkins and Marcus Sasser will likely get more work on Thursday night in a smash spot against Washington. Sasser has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at point guard, while Jenkins is just behind him with the fourth-highest.
Jenkins had 15 points and 34.5 DraftKings points in 21 minutes while filling in extra time after Cade left on Tuesday, and he had 28.2 DraftKings points in 35 minutes against the Nets in the last game that Cunningham missed.
Sasser had eight points and 27.75 DraftKings points in that game without Cunningham against the Nets and played 25 minutes on Tuesday, finishing with nine points and four assists.
While neither guard is a bargain since their salaries have been boosted, they still represent good value, and whoever gets more playing time will likely be one of the best value plays available.
Fast Break
LaMelo Ball is much cheaper than Doncic and Josh Giddey and can still bring an elite ceiling. He has a better Plus/Minus projection than either expensive superstar, even though he’s in a tougher matchup against the Magic. Ball is coming off a huge game against the Heat, when he posted 60 DraftKings points in 33 minutes on Tuesday.
Of the point guards with a salary of at least $6,000, De’Aaron Fox has the best Plus/Minus projection, as he and the Spurs host the Suns. Fox has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games, averaging 39.7 DraftKings points per game over that span.
Hornets guard Coby White is adjusting well to his new team and has dropped 33 and 33.75 DraftKings points in his last two games. His salary is still under $5,000, and he has one of the highest Plus/Minus projections at point guard coming into the day.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
When breaking down a slate, it can be helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. Suns guard Devin Booker has the highest median, ceiling and floor projections at shooting guard in the ShotQuality projections.
Booker has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games, averaging 48.7 DraftKings points per game. He had over 45 DraftKings points in all but one of those games and went off for 40 points and 50+ DraftKings points in Boston on Monday.
Booker and the Suns will try to take down the Spurs, which is a tough matchup. However, the two teams typically play fast and have high-scoring results. He left early the last time these teams met, but he’ll look to have a larger impact in this contest on Thursday.
Value
In both sets of projections, Kris Dunn of the Clippers has the highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate. Dunn is expected to get more work on the second game of the team’s back-to-back, especially if the team gives Darius Garland (toe) a maintenance day.
Dunn always plays plenty of minutes, but he gets more work in the offense when Garland is out. He posted 24 DraftKings points in four straight before slower production in the last two games with Garland available.
If Garland or other Clippers starters are out, Jordan Miller would also be a good value play. He has scored at least 13 points in four of his last five games with 22+ DraftKings points in each of those games, including 38.2 DraftKings points against the Spurs on Monday.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell has the highest median, ceiling and floor projections in the FantasyLabs projection set at the position, but he is a little more expensive than Booker as a stud to build around. He has a great matchup against the Bulls, though, so he could deliver even on his high expectations. He had 50.75 DraftKings points against the Mavs on Sunday but only managed 38 DraftKings points on Tuesday against the Bucks.
In both sets of projections, Norman Powell is a strong mid-range play with a good Projected Plus/Minus as he and the Heat host the Lakers. Powell has only played two games since an extended injury absence, producing 27.75 DraftKings points and 31.5 DraftKings points. However, he has been a very steady contributor in the Miami offense all season, and he brings a high floor, a high ceiling and excellent positional versatility in this matchup on Thursday.
Without Cunningham, Caris LeVert is a good bargain option at shooting guard. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the FantasyLabs projections and the third-highest in the ShotQuality projections behind only Dunn and Miller.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Since the Clippers traded James Harden and Ivica Zubac at the deadline, Kawhi Leonard has done a good job keeping the Clippers in the playoff race. They can get back to .500 with a win in New Orleans on Thursday after losing in the first game of this set in the Big Easy.
Kawhi had 25 points, eight boards and 40.5 DraftKings points in the first game of the two-game set, but hopefully, he can be more effective in getting the offense going on Thursday night. He only had one assist on Wednesday, but he’ll probably have more playmaking responsibilities in the rematch, especially if Garland is out.
Kawhi has an extremely high ceiling and is a good pay-up play at small forward if you have the salary available.
Value
In the ShotQuality projections, Tristan da Silva has a top-three Plus/Minus projection at both forward spots, while in the FantasyLabs projections, he ranks in the top five at both positions.
The Magic have been relying heavily on the second-year forward, who has stepped into more usage with Franz Wagner and Anthony Black on the sidelines. In his 15 games since the All-Star break, he’s averaging 12.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. He has averaged 27.5 DraftKings points per game during that run, making him a great value at $5,000.
Da Silva went off for 50.2 DraftKings points last Thursday against Washington and has scored double-digit points in four of his last five games. He and the Magic will visit the Hornets in one of the most exciting matchups of the night, and da Silva is a strong value option at either forward spot in his expanded role.
Fast Break
Jalen Green has the second-highest ceiling projection at small forward, behind only Kawhi Leonard. Green had only nine points on Tuesday against the Timberwolves in the second game of a back-to-back, but he had 20+ points in each of his six previous games. He should bounce back against San Antonio and has a very high ceiling in that matchup.
The Pelicans have gotten great work from Saddiq Bey throughout this season, regardless of the availability of players in the rest of the rotation. Bey is averaging 17.5 points per game and has scored 23 and 25 points in his last two games, producing 37 and 42.75 DraftKings points. He had that 42.75 DratKings points against the Clippers on Wednesday and will look to run it back again in the second game of the back-to-back.
Cavaliers forward Dean Wade has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward in the ShotQuality projections and the second-highest in the FantasyLabs projections. Wade had 12 points and 19.25 DraftKings points against the Mavs on Sunday, and he scored nine points with 15 DraftKings points against the Bucks. Even with Max Strus available, Wade continues to get minutes, and he has a very favorable matchup against the Bulls.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
In that tasty matchup against the Bulls, Evan Mobley has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward in the FantasyLabs projections. He also has the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position in those projections, making him worth spending up on with a salary just under $9,000.
Mobley has thrived over his last nine games, averaging 21.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.2 blocks per contest. He’s averaged 43.1 DraftKings points per game over those nine games and posted over 45 DraftKings points in three of his last four.
On Tuesday against the Bucks, he had 56.25 DraftKings points on 27 points, 15 rebounds, two assists and three blocks. He has that kind of upside with Jarrett Allen (knee) out and will continue to carry a huge load on both ends of the court. The Bulls have allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to centers and the second-most DraftKings points per game to power forwards, so Mobley should be in a smash spot as one of the top plays on the slate.
Value
The Wizards are giving rookie Will Riley extended playing time down the stretch, and he has regularly exceeded salary-based expectations. He especially stands out in the ShotQuality projections, where he has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at both power forward and small forward.
Trae Young and Kyshawn George are already out, while Alex Sarr and Bilal Coulibaly are questionable. If Coulibaly is out or at less than 100%, Riley should again carry the load.
In each of his last two games, Riley has scored 21 points, finishing with 34 DraftKings points against the Warriors and 30.75 DraftKings points against the Pistons. He should get another big workload in Thursday’s rematch against Detroit, and he should be able to return value at just over $5,000.
Fast Break
LeBron James is taking on the Heat in his annual return to South Beach. He has scored at least 27 points in each of his six games going back to face the Heat since joining the Lakers. He had 29 points in 29 minutes last season and 30 points in 37 minutes the season before. It is the second game of a back-to-back, which could limit his upside, but his history of pummeling the Heat in his returns makes him worth considering.
John Collins has returned for the last three games for the Clippers and had 18 points, seven rebounds and 31.25 DraftKings points on Wednesday in the first game of this set. He has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all power forwards in the ShotQuality projections.
The Pistons will be without Isaiah Stewart for a while, leaving more work for Ron Holland II off the bench. Holland is in a smash spot against the Wizards, and he had 11 points and 23.2 DraftKings points in 15 minutes in his last outing. He has hit for double-digit points in four straight games, and since his salary is still under $4,000, he’s a bargain with great upside, especially in Thursday’s matchup.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Victor Wembanyama has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at center and is second behind only Luka on the entire slate. Wemby has a very favorable matchup against the Suns, since Mark Williams is out and youngster Oso Ighodaro is playing big minutes.
Wemby only had to play 22 minutes on Tuesday against the Kings, totaling 35.5 DraftKings points. Before that, though, he had been playing bigger minutes and had posted four double-doubles in his previous five games, posting over 50 DraftKings points in each of those contests.
During that successful span, Wemby had 74 DraftKings points last Saturday against the Hornets, showing his extremely high ceiling and his ability to stuff the stat sheet across all categories.
Value
As a high-risk, high-reward option at center, Karlo Matkovic is getting more run for the Pelicans. He has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at center in the FantasyLabs projections, where he is expected to play 22.5 minutes against the Clippers.
Matkovic was out of the rotation for much of the year for the Pels, but he has stepped up since the start of March. He had a double-double in 20 minutes with 31.5 DraftKings against the Mavericks on Monday, and he fell just short with nine points, eight rebounds and 21 DraftKings points in 25 minutes on Wednesday.
Matkovic could play an even bigger role in Thursday’s rematch, depending on who else the team has available. At only $3,900, he’s a top bargain to consider.
Fast Break
Jalen Duren had 36 points, 12 rebounds and 57 DraftKings points against the Wizards on Tuesday. Without Cunningham, he should be the focus of the offense again on Thursday in a very favorable matchup. He’s much cheaper than Wemby and is easier to build around alongside other stars on Thursday.
The Magic have continued to give Wendell Carter Jr. plenty of playing time in the middle, and he has scored double-digit points in five straight games. He went off for 46.75 DraftKings points against the Wizards during that run, and brings good upside and value as a mid-range play against the Hornets.
Depending on who the Clippers have available on the second night of their back-to-back, Isaiah Jackson could step into a much larger role. Jackson has the second-highest Plus/Minus projections at the position in the ShotQuality projections and the third-highest in the FantaysLabs projections.
Pictured: Evan Mobley
Photo Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
