After a pair of awesome Game 7s the last two days to close out the first round, the NBA has two games from the second round on tap this Monday. The Celtics host the Knicks in the first game of their series before the Nuggets and Thunder clash in the late game in Oklahoma City. It’s the first game in each series, although these teams know each other extremely well. It should be a great night for fantasy basketball!
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at point guard and the second-highest on the slate behind only Nikola Jokic. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position as well.
SGA averaged 53.76 DraftKings points per game in his 74 games during the regular season with a 34.9% usage rate. In the Thunder’s first-round sweep of the Grizzlies, he averaged 47.4 DraftKings points per game with a 33.7% usage rate. He had a very quiet Game 1 in that series but stepped up in Game 3 and Game 4 with over 50 DraftKings points in each contest. He had a series-high 59.25 DraftKings points in the close-out win in Game 4 on 38 points, six assists, five rebounds, two steals, and one block.
During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 51.9 DraftKings points in his four matchups with the Nuggets, and he is a great value with his salary under $10,000 and $1,500 less than Jokic’s salary. He’s actually relatively easy to build around at this price point.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Russell Westbrook is a great value play at point guard after proving how important he is to the Nuggets’ new-look rotation. Since the new regime under interim head coach David Adelman values his defensive presence a little more, he had a bigger role in Round 1 and brings a good upside from under $5,000. He has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Westbrook missed Game 4 of the Nuggets’ first-round win with foot inflammation and was limited to nine minutes in Game 3. In each of the other games, though, he played a key role. In Game 1, he had 34 DraftKings points in the overtime win and in Game 6, he had a double-double with 37 DraftKings points. In the deciding Game 7, Russ responded with 16 points, five assists, five rebounds, five steals, and a series-high 39.75 DraftKings points.
While he isn’t the triple-double lock he was during his time in OKC for the Thunder, he should be set to return great value against his former club at this salary. He averaged 31.5 DraftKings points in four games against them during the regular season and had 35.25 DraftKings points in their most recent matchup.
Fast Break
Jalen Brunson was an absolute beast in the first round against the Pistons, averaging 50.25 DraftKings points per game and finishing the series with 40 points and 56 DraftKings points in Game 6. He’s a proven playoff performer who can deliver at the highest level, and he has the second-highest ceiling, median and floor projections at the position behind only SGA.
The Celtics removed Jrue Holiday from the injury report, so he should be good to go after he missed the final three games of Boston’s series win over the Magic. In the two games he played, he had 26.25 and 26.0 DraftKings points. His defense on Brunson will be critical in the Boston-New York series, and he also brings good value on the offensive end himself.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
One of the exciting new features this season on FantasyLabs has been our partnership with ShotQuality. In the ShotQuality projections, Jamal Murray has the highest floor, median, and ceiling projections at shooting guard, along with the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Murray had just 25.25 DraftKings points in the deciding Game 7 for the Nuggets, but he was much better in the rest of the series. His best game came in Game 5 when he took over with 43 points, seven assists and an amazing 71.25 DraftKings. He brings that kind of high ceiling to Game 1 against the Thunder after dropping 53.5 DraftKings points against them in their most recent head-to-head matchup.
In all but one of the games in the first-round series against the Clippers, Murray played over 40 minutes. While fatigue could be a factor if this series gets extended, his huge workload makes him a relatively safe play in addition to bringing his high ceiling Monday night.
Value
In the FantasyLabs projections, Alex Caruso has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard at his salary of just $4,000. He’s a great value option at either guard spot and can stretch your salary if you’re looking to spend more on superstars in other spots.
Caruso didn’t play much in the Game 1 rout against Memphis, but he logged over 22 minutes in each of the last three games in that series and exceeded salary-based expectations in each contest, producing 32, 31.5, and 23.75 DraftKings points.
As usual, Caruso’s production came from excellent non-scoring numbers in those three games. He had multiple steals in each of those games, one blocked shot in each contest, and at least three assists. If he gets playing time, he can definitely find a way to be a great value play at $4,000 even though he doesn’t usually take a high volume of shots.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all shooting guards, behind only Murray. Brown went off for a massive 36-point double-double that earned him 60.5 DraftKings points in Game 2 against the Magic and also exceeded salary-based expectations with another double-double and 39.75 DraftKings points in Game 4. He averaged 29.9 DraftKings points per game against the Knicks this season, but his ceiling is much higher now that the Celtics are in “playoff mode” with their rotations.
Cason Wallace is a bargain play to consider. He had over 16 DraftKings points in two of the four games in the Thunder’s first-round series sweep and played 20+ minutes in the final three games of the four-game set. He’s a little cheaper than Caruso, but both have great upside as bargain plays.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
At small forward, Jayson Tatum has the highest floor, median, and ceiling projections, along with the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in both sets of projections. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate at any position in both sets of projections as well.
Tatum hurt his wrist in Game 1 against the Magic and missed Game 2, but he came back with a vengeance and scored at least 35 points in each of the final three games of the series. He had 55.75 DraftKings points in his Game 3 return and was even better with a double-double and 67 DraftKings points in Game 4. In Game 5, he had another double-double and nearly a triple-double on his way to 64.5 DraftKings points.
In the four games he played in the first round, he averaged 58.4 DraftKings points and posted a team-high 34.7% usage rate.
Tatum also dominated against the Knicks during the regular season, averaging 57.6 DraftKings points in just 37.5 minutes per game, producing 1.54 DraftKings points per minute against New York in their four regular-season meetings.
Value
At shooting guard, Murray and Caruso have the top two Projected Plus/Minus in both sets of projections, with Christian Braun just behind them. Braun also ranks third in Projected Plus/Minus at small forward behind only Tatum and Jalen Williams (discussed below).
In the first round, Braun averaged 27.4 DraftKings points per game and had 21 points and 36.75 DraftKings points in the deciding Game 7. Braun had a nice double-double with 12 rebounds in the Nuggets’ Game 5 win and scored double-digit points in each of the last four games in the series.
In the four games between these two teams in the regular season, Braun produced 33.2 DraftKings points per game in 33.2 minutes per game. Since his salary is just over $5,000, he’ll be a great option at either shooting guard or small forward if he’s around that production again in Game 1.
Fast Break
Josh Hart always brings a high ceiling since he can stuff the stat sheet in so many categories and plays a very heavy workload of minutes. Hart had three double-doubles in the last four games against the Pistons, with over 38 DraftKings points in three of those contests. He scored 15 points or fewer in each of those games, but he has the non-scoring production to compensate and still be a good option if you target a mid-range play.
In the other game, Michael Porter Jr. has a high ceiling but is also “boom-or-bust” since he sometimes gets squeezed out of Denver’s new-look rotation. He only exceeded salary-based expectations one time in the last series, although he finished strong with 15 points and 24 DraftKings points in Game 7.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
While Tatum dominates the projections at power forward as well, Jalen Williams is just behind him at both positions in terms of median, ceiling, and floor projections, as well as Projected Plus/Minus at each position. Williams is almost $2,000 cheaper as well, so he can stretch your salary cap further
In the first round, Williams averaged 41.7 DraftKings points per game, scoring at least 20 points in each contest. He had his best game of the series in Game 3, when he racked up 26 points and 47 DraftKings points in 37 minutes.
Williams has shown the ability to step up as a secondary scorer next to SGA or even take over as the primary option when needed. He produced 41.5 DraftKings points in 30.2 minutes per game in his four contests against the Nuggets this season and had 55.75 DraftKings points in 38 minutes in his last full game against them. He left their most recent matchup with an injury after just 14 minutes.
While he isn’t as flashy as Tatum, he does come much cheaper, making him an easier option to stack with other stars this Monday.
Value
In both sets of projections, Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward behind only Tatum and Williams.
Gordon hit the memorable game-winning dunk in Game 5 of the Nuggets’ first-round series and was a huge difference-maker throughout the series. He averaged 31.25 DraftKings points per game and had over 30 DraftKings points in each of his last four.
He played very limited minutes against the Thunder this season and missed two of their four matchups entirely. He’s a little bit of an “X factor” as a result, but he has a good salary under $6,000, which will make him a strong play if he continues to post around 30 DraftKings points per contest.
Fast Break
Chet Holmgren had double-doubles in the first two games of the Thunder’s series against Memphis, producing 43.5 and 46.25 DraftKings points in the Thunder’s two home wins. He struggled a little more on the road, but his defense and rebounding will be key in this series against the Nuggets, so look for him to get off to a fast start in OKC again in this round.
For the Celtics, Al Horford exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the last four games against the Magic and helped fill in while Tatum was banged up. The veteran from Florida had over 24 DraftKings points in each of those four games and should continue to be a reliable contributor who also offers a little salary relief.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on this two-game slate, and the ShotQuality projections also give him the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate, which is astounding given his elevated salary of $11,000.
Against the Clippers in the first round, Jokic had 65+ DraftKings points in each of the first five games of the series before cooling off with “just” 52.75 and 48.0 DraftKings points in the final two games of the series. He had three triple-doubles in the series, and his best game came in a road win in Game 4 that helped turn the series. In that matchup, he had 36 points, 21 rebounds, and 82.25 DraftKings points.
Jokic thrived against the Thunder during the regular season, averaging 70.2 DraftKings points in their four head-to-head matchups. He had 35 points and 75 DraftKings points in their last meeting, which was in Oklahoma City in early March, and he has that kind of ceiling in their rematch in the postseason.
Even though he’s so much more expensive than even the other superstars on the board, his ceiling and his median nights are so high that he’s still hard to pass up despite the price tag.
Value
In the FantasyLabs projections, Kristaps Porzingis has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center with his salary at just over $6,000. He was relatively quiet in the first round against the Magic, with under 30 DraftKings points in four of his five games.
However, his one big game was a standout performance in Game 2, when he had a 20-point double-double for 37.25 DraftKings points. He also did very well in his two games this season against the Knicks, posting 50.5 DraftKings points against them just under a month ago with 34 points, four rebounds, and three assists in 39 minutes.
He has that kind of ceiling if the Celtics choose to lean on him in Game 1.
Fast Break
Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns had three big games against Detroit and a couple of clunkers. He started the series strong with 58.25 DraftKings points in Game 1, and he was at his best in Game 3 and Game 4 in Detroit, producing 49.5 and 42.75 DraftKings points. He struggled in Game 2, though, with just 19.5 DraftKings points and came up short of 40 DraftKings points in both Game 5 and Game 6 as well. He definitely has the potential to produce, but he isn’t quite as reliable as Jokic or as cheap as Porzingis.
While Aaron Gordon can be a good option under $6,000, Isaiah Hartenstein is another great play in that range at center on DraftKings. Hartenstein had 11 points, 12 rebounds, and a series-high 38.5 DraftKings points in Game 4 against the Grizzlies, and he and Holmgren will battle it out with Jokic and Gordon in an epic frontcourt battle in this series.
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