NFL DFS Picks: Week 18 Saturday Slate DraftKings Breakdown

We’ve got 2 games on Saturday of the NFL’s final regular season week, including the potential NFC South title game between the Panthers and the Bucs in the later game.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Picks

Stud: Brock Purdy ($6,300) San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (47.5 Total)

While the totals in both Saturday games are fairly close, in theory the NFC West battle between the 49ers and Seahawks is the better game for DFS. It’s a tough spot, though, since the Seahawks have the league’s best defense by DVOA and simultaneously rank 29th in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). Given those factors, our projections prefer Purdy’s volume over the likely efficiency from Seattle.

Which makes sense, considering how well Purdy has played since coming back from injury. He’s thrown at least three touchdowns in his last three games, one of which was played without star tight end George Kittle. Kittle is off the injury report, so Purdy has his full complement of weapons and will likely need to be aggressive with San Francisco as a slight underdog.

Crucially, this is also an important game for both teams. The winner earns both the NFC West title and the #1 seed in the NFC, which means a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (including the Super Bowl in the case of the 49ers). There’s no concern about starters being pulled or reps being managed — which is the case in both Saturday games but will be a recurring concern on Sunday.

Plus, Purdy is a fairly easy GPP stack, given the concentration of the 49ers offense around three players and the obvious bring-back from the Seattle side. With all four QBs on the slate projecting for similar ownership and salary not much of an issue, I like leaning in to the slate-leading median and ceiling projection on Purdy and the 49ers.

Value: Bryce Young ($4,800) Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Bucs (44 Total)

Our projections have Young as just a hair ahead of his opposing number for the best QB value on the slate. Young is another tricky projection, as we have to balance his poor play against the equally poor defense of the Buccaneers.

Young has had his moments this season, going over 22 DraftKings points in three games. However, those have been the exception and not the rule, and he has just as many games where he’s been held under ten points. He ranks 23rd in QBR and 29th in yards per attempt among qualified QBs and has contributed just over 200 yards and two scores on the ground.

On the plus side, he’s taking on a Tampa team that ranks 31st in points allowed to QBs, and Young’s best games have come against weaker defenses. While we typically see a downturn in scoring (both real life and fantasy) against divisional opponents in the second matchup, that’s the scenario in both games on Saturday, so it can’t be avoided. Plus, Tampa’s defense has seemingly regressed throughout the season.

While salary isn’t tight enough that we need Young to make lineups work, having an extra $1,000+ to work with can be helpful. Plus, with how close the projections are on all four passers, it wouldn’t be much of a shock if he ended up with the highest score of any player at the position. I won’t be loading up on Panthers’ stacks, but I’ll likely be over the field.

Quick Hits

Sam Darnold ($5,800): The Seahawks’ low PROE means rostering Darnold is a bet on efficiency — or a negative game script that forces Seattle to be aggressive. Both are fairly likely this week, since San Francisco’s defense has allowed almost 30 points per game the last three weeks despite facing the Titans and the (Philip Rivers-led) Colts in that stretch, while their offense is averaging over 40 points in that span. I’ll have some Darnold stacks as part of game-environment bets, with his stacking (and bring-back) options all fairly obvious.

Baker Mayfield ($5,600): The one QB I’ll be lower than the field on is Mayfield, who has fallen apart in recent weeks despite the return of most of his wide receivers. The Panthers held him under 150 yards with just one touchdown two weeks ago, and we typically project worse performances in divisional rematches. This take could come back to haunt me, but with only four QBs on the slate, we have to take a stand somewhere, and mine will be fading Mayfield.

NFL DFS Running Back Picks