Sunday delivers an 11-game slate for Week 16. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 16.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Tyler Shough ($5,400) + Chris Olave ($6,500) + Adonai Mitchell ($4,500)
This Saints vs. Jets game stack is affordable, brings strong upside relative to its cost, and should be contrarian. In our projections, Olave and Mitchell are hovering around 10% in expected ownership, while Shough is only projected to be around 5% owned on DraftKings.
The Saints carry a solid 23-point implied team total hosting the lowly Jets, and Shough has been playing great recently, leading New Orleans to back-to-back wins and scoring at least 18 DraftKings points in four of his last five starts. During this span, Shough is averaging 7.4 yards per pass, and he has thrown five touchdowns to three picks. More importantly, Shough is averaging 6.4 carries per game, which ranks second only to Josh Allen among quarterbacks during this time. In fact, Shough has seen 11 red zone carries, which is tied with Allen.
Shough has only scored two touchdowns with his legs, but more are coming given his willingness to rush in the red zone. The Jets just allowed Trevor Lawrence to rush for 51 yards and a touchdown on five carries last week, and a similar rushing line is within reach for Shough this week. New York is also allowing the seventh-most yards per pass over the last three weeks (7.8), so this is a prime spot for Shough to have one of his best outings of the season.
With Shough playing well under center in the last five games, Olave has been the main beneficiary for the Saints, averaging 16.3 DraftKings PPG, including three touchdowns. The wideout is leading New Orleans with a 28% target share and a 14.3 aDOT during this span. Additionally, Olave has seen nine targets over 20 yards and three red zone targets.
Lastly, with Garrett Wilson (knee) sidelined, Mitchell has been the Jets’ top receiver, scoring 27.2, 3.4, and 17.4 DraftKings points in his last three games. In that last performance, Brady Cook made his first full start at quarterback for the Jets, and Mitchell led New York with a 28.2% target share, one red zone target, and one target over 20 yards. Cook will continue to start this week, and he should pepper Mitchell with targets, with the Jets likely to be playing from behind as 5.5-point road underdogs.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Tony Pollard ($5,400)
It has been a disappointing season for Pollard, but the veteran has come alive in the last two weeks, rushing for 161 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Browns (31.1 DraftKings points) and rushing for 104 yards and a touchdown vs. the 49ers (21.1 DraftKings points).
The Titans won that matchup with Cleveland 31-29 and then lost 37-24 to San Francisco. Tennessee has certainly been more competitive, and featuring Pollard has been one of the main differences. In these two games, Pollard is averaging 19.5 carries per game while logging 56.3% of the snaps. This is 76.5% of the running back carries for the Titans, and three of his carries have been in the red zone.
Next, Tennessee is hosting the Chiefs, who just last week were eliminated from the playoffs with a third straight loss, and Patrick Mahomes went down for the season with a knee injury in the process. The morale should be low for Kansas City, and going from Mahomes to Gardner Minshew is a huge downgrade.
As just three-point underdogs, the Titans have a legitimate chance to win this game on their home turf, and Tennessee playing with a lead is possible. All in all, this is a solid situation for Pollard to continue his improved play, and he is an awesome gamble for GPPs with him slated to be only around 3% owned on DraftKings according to our projections. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Pollard carries the best odds to score a touchdown in this Titans vs. Chiefs matchup with +135 odds.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Mike Evans ($6,300)
Evans is one of the best GPP plays of the week, with our projections slating him to be just around 8% owned on DraftKings. Evans made his return from a six-game absence due to a broken collarbone last week vs. the Falcons, and the receiver hauled in six of his team-high 12 targets for 132 yards (22.2 DraftKings points).
Even coming off such a long absence, Evans ran a route on 70% of his team’s dropbacks, and he saw a target on an absurd 43% of his routes, including three targets over 20 yards and one red zone target.
With Emeka Egbuka severely struggling while Evans was out, it was no surprise to see Baker Mayfield feed Evans in his return in a crucial game for the Buccaneers. After losing that matchup with Atlanta, Tampa Bay can’t afford another loss if the team wants to make the postseason, and this Sunday’s matchup vs. the Panthers is a must-win, as these two teams are tied for the top seed in the NFC South.
Evans once again should elevate his game with the stakes high, and his route rate should increase in his second game back. The star receiver is seeing a target on 31% of his routes this season, and this is a strong matchup for him, with Carolina giving up the seventh-most yards per pass this season (7.0). Evans could explode in this spot, and his $6,300 salary is far too low for his upside.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Brenton Strange ($3,900)
The Jaguars and the Broncos go head-to-head this weekend for a matchup between two of the hottest teams in the NFL. Jacksonville has won five in a row, and Denver has won 11 in a row. This is a crucial game for seeding purposes, and this matchup carries a high 46.5-point total.
The Jaguars could be forced to air it out as three-point underdogs, and Strange could be very active in this spot. The Broncos are one of the best defenses in the league, but one of their only weaknesses is defending tight ends, with Denver giving up the seventh-most receiving yards (898) and the seventh-most receptions of 15+ yards to the position this season (19).
Strange’s role as Jacksonville’s top tight end has been immense this season. The former second-round pick is running a route on 70% of his team’s dropbacks, and he is seeing a target on 18% of his routes. Strange ranks eighth among tight ends in yards per route run (1.77), and he has cracked double-digit DraftKings points in four of the eight games he hasn’t exited with an injury.
Strange is only projected to be around 5% owned on DraftKings via our projections, and he is a great way to differentiate yourself at tight end this week.
Pictured: Mike Evans
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
