If you’ve missed massive NBA slates while the NBA Cup Championship was decided, the wait ends this Thursday! After a lighter schedule over the last few weeks, there are 12 games on the schedule for Thursday night, and the first 11 of those are on the DraftKings main slate, which tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. This huge slate is overstuffed with great star options to build around, even though some key injuries will keep some big names on the bench. Those injuries often open opportunities for other players to step up as well, so be sure to check back for updates to our models as injury reports come out throughout the day.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Of all the players on the entire 22-team slate, Luka Doncic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections as he leads the Lakers to Salt Lake City to take on the Jazz. Doncic is extremely expensive at $12,000, but he still has the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate, indicating that he’s actually a value play and should be priced higher based on the current projecitons.
Doncic and many of the stars should be well-rested and ready to post huge games. The Lakers have played just one game over the last week, and Luka had a relatively quiet showing against the Suns in Phoenix.
This season, he’s averaging 34.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 8.8 assists, and 62.8 DraftKings points per game. He’s producing 1.70 DraftKings points per minute and has posted over 60 DraftKings points in seven of his last 10 games, including two games with over 70 DraftKings points and a high point of 81.2 DraftKings points against the Clippers.
He’s in a great matchup to get back on track against the Jazz, who allowed the second-most points per game in the NBA and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. Doncic will be set up to carry even more of the work than normal this Thursday since Austin Reaves (calf) and Deandre Ayton (elbow) have both been ruled out. Especially without Reaves, Doncic should get all the work he can handle and should be able to dominate this matchup in Utah for a huge night. If you’re paying up at point guard, Doncic is clearly the top option if you can make his salary work.
Value
The only point guard who has a higher Plus/Minus projection than Luka on Thursday is Isaiah Collier of the Jazz on the other side of that same matchup. Collier is only $3,700, making him a great bargain value, but he has been playing his way into a larger role lately, earning more playing time behind Keyonte George.
Collier has dished out at least seven assists in three of his last four games and is coming off a strong showing in the Jazz’s win over the Mavericks on Monday. He had 10 points, eight assists, and three rebounds for 31.8 DraftKings points, which is an exceptional return at this price point.
His playing time is a little uncertain since he is coming off the bench, but he typically turns in excellent non-scoring numbers when he’s given the opportunity. While he isn’t a “safe” play, his potential return rate is so strong that he’s worth a look at this bargain salary on Thursday night.
This matchup between the Lakers and Jazz has the highest over/under of the night, according to our Vegas Dashboard. We’ll definitely come back to this matchup later as we continue to look for value plays.
Fast Break
After carrying his team to the NBA Cup Championship, Jalen Brunson could be set up to be a great option to build around on Thursday. He has one of the best Plus/Minus projections along the top tier of options and is in a smash spot against the Pacers. He has over 41 DraftKings points in six straight games and could end up carrying more of the offense with Karl-Anthony Towns (knee), Josh Hart (abdominal strain), OG Anunoby (knee), and Mitchell Robinson (ankle) all questionable, and Miles McBride (ankle) still ruled out.
The Magic visit the Nuggets in one of Thursday’s matchups, and Orlando will be without both Franz Wagner (ankle) and Jalen Suggs (hip). With those two key contributors out, Anthony Black and Jase Richardson both have excellent Plus/Minus projections. Black is a strong mid-range play, who has over 27 DraftKings points in four straight and eight of his last nine games. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 12 of his last 13 games, and he has a top-four Plus/Minus projection at point guard this Thursday.
Richardson and Collier are strong bargain options, and Jadey Ivey is another solid play under $4,000. Ivey has scored exactly 10 points in each of his last three games and is ramping into a larger role. He played over 20 minutes for the first time this season in his last game on Monday against the Celtics, finishing with 21.75 DraftKings points. He has over 19 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and seems to be finding his rhythm after injury delayed his start to the season.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Spurs came up just short in the NBA Cup, but Stephon Castle was a standout star throughout their run to the final and will continue to be a great fantasy option on Thursday night, when the Spurs host the Wizards in one of the best matchups on the board.
Castle showed an elite ceiling while carrying his squad to the Championship, and he posted 15 points, 12 assists, seven rebounds, and 44.75 DraftKings points in the Championship game on Tuesday. He was even better with 52.5 DraftKings points on 30 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists in their quarterfinal contest with the Lakers.
Of all the shooting guards with salaries over $6,000, Castle has the highest Plus/Minus projection, and he has the third-highest median projection and second-highest floor projection of all shooting guards on Thursday’s giant slate.
The Wizards play at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA and give up more points than any other team in the NBA, allowing 126.7 points per contest. They have the worst defensive rating in the NBA, and the Spurs should be able to take out their frustrations from Tuesday night’s defeat by scoring plenty of points on Thursday.
Value
Sometimes it helps to have different perspectives on the slate, and one awesome option for that is using the ShotQuality projections. In that set of projections, Bogdan Bogdanovic has a top-five Plus/Minus projection as he will have to help shoulder the load on Thursday night with James Harden (calf) out.
Bogdanovic has put up decent numbers when given playing time, but the team has brought him along slowly in his three games since returning from a hip injury. In those three games, he averaged 8.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.7 three-pointers in 22.0 minutes per game.
Harden has only missed one game for the Clippers all season, and Bogdanovic played 28 minutes and had 27 DraftKings points on 12 points, four rebounds, and five assists in that loss to the Suns. The rotation will be very different for this game than that one, though, so it’s hard to know exactly how Bogdanovic will fit into the plan.
He definitely has a high ceiling if he steps into a big role, and he comes with a salary of only $4,400, which makes him a strong, affordable option in the backcourt.
Fast Break
Kevin Durant has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in the FantasyLabs projections at shooting guard. He and the Rockets should be ready for launch as they host the Pelicans, who have been one of the best fantasy matchups in the NBA for almost every position. They typically play fast and have a very low defensive rating. Durant has scored at least 24 points in six of his last seven games and had 52.25 DraftKings points in Monday’s loss to the Nuggets.
Norman Powell is a strong mid-range play, as he and Jaime Jaquez Jr. lead the Heat into Brooklyn to face the Nets. With Tyler Herro (toe) missing a second straight game, Powell will have a heavy workload as long as he can play through his own questionable tag due to left calf tightness that kept him out of practice on Wednesday.
Jase Richardson is near the top of the Plus/Minus projections at shooting guard as well, but Brice Sensabaugh of the Jazz actually has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all shooting guards in both sets of projections. Sensabaugh has been boom-or-bust throughout his career, but he moved into the starting lineup on Monday, and if he gets extra playing time, he could be a great play under $4,000.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
In both the FantasyLabs and ShotQuality projections, Michael Porter Jr. edges out Kawhi Leonard for the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at small forward. MPJ has a favorable matchup against the Heat and has typically been carrying a very heavy workload for the Nets when available this season.
In his 21 teams, MPJ is averaging 42.7 DraftKings points on 25.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 0.9 steals per contest. He had over 44 DraftKings points in four straight games before cooling off a little on Sunday against the Bucks. During his hot stretch, his best outing came against the Bulls, when he earned 61.5 DraftKings points on 33 points, 10 boards, and five assists.
Porter has strong value projections and a very high ceiling as he takes the floor against the Heat in one of the Eastern Conference matchups near the front end of Thursday’s massive slate.
Value
The Wizards have been dealing with multiple key injuries, and Khris Middleton (knee) and Corey Kispert (thumb) will remain out on Thursday as the Wizards face the Spurs. Justin Champagnie has done a good job stepping in to fill in the gaps, and Thursday’s matchup in San Antonio will be especially meaningful for him against his twin brother, Julian Champagnie, and the Spurs.
Justin is the better fantasy option of the two brothers this Thursday, and he brings the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all small forwards in both sets of projections. He’s lined up to play about 25 minutes, according to the projections, which would be enough for him to be a strong value under $5,000.
He has over 25 DraftKings points in four of his last six games and over 35 DraftKings points in two of his last three. He helped the Wizards get a win on Sunday with 13 points, 14 rebounds, and a pair of steals in 33 minutes against the Pacers. While Bilal Coulibaly (oblique) and Alex Sarr (thigh) are ready to return after missing that game, there should still be enough work without Middleton and Kispert for Champagnie to be a solid value at small forward on Thursday.
Fast Break
Kawhi Leonard is just behind MPJ for the top projections, and he could get more work with James Harden out. He also missed the only game Harden was absent this season, so this will be his first game of the season without Harden available. Kawhi has scored 20+ points in eight straight games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of those contests.
Along with Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges is the only Knicks starter not on the injury report. If other options are out, Bridges could take on more work, and he’s shown off a very high ceiling when called upon to carry more of the workload. He’s a very solid mid-range play to consider, especially if any of his teammates take a recovery day.
Heat forward Simone Fontecchio has a top-five Plus/Minus projection at small forward in both sets of projections, and he would step into a much larger role if Powell is out, along with Herro. Fontecchio has been boom or bust but showed his upside with 20 points and 30.75 DraftKings points earlier this month against the Kings.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Even with Trae Young (knee) questionable, Jalen Johnson remains one of the top options on the board in both sets of projections. The Hawks power forward has emerged as a fantasy force this season and has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections along with the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Johnson has produced 52.9 DraftKings points per game on the season with an impressive production rate of 1.51 DraftKings points per minute. He has posted four straight triple-doubles and at least 50 DraftKings points in seven straight. Over those seven games, he has averaged 25.9 points, 12.9 rebounds, 11.1 assists, and 65.0 DraftKings points per game.
The Hawks have a good matchup in Charlotte in one of the first games of the night, in what should be a high-scoring matchup. The big question mark is how Johnson’s big breakthrough will be impacted by Trae Young’s return, but he still looks like he’s in a smash spot on Thursday, whether Young returns or takes more time to work his way back.
Value
Johnson has the best Plus/Minus projection at power forward, but another strong option to consider is Tobias Harris of the Pistons, who has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus at the position in both the FantasyLabs and ShotQuality projections.
Harris is only $5,000, but he has posted over 25 DraftKings points in five of his last eight games and is averaging 26.0 DraftKings points on 14.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in 29 minutes per game.
Harris should be in a favorable matchup against the Mavericks in Dallas, and he’s a solid mid-range option if you can’t pay all the way up for one of the elite power forwards based on your commitments at other positions.
Fast Break
Anthony Davis (calf) is questionable but was able to get in a full practice on Wednesday, so he could be set to return from a one-game absence. He missed Monday’s game against the Jazz but had been very good before that, with at least 48 DraftKings points in four of his previous five games. He had 24 points, 14 boards, and 56 DraftKings points against the Nets in his most recent game last Friday, and he brings an elite ceiling at his relatively affordable salary of just over $9,000. He has the second-highest projections across the board and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the ShotQuality projections.
Harris and Champagne (highlighted above) are very strong midrange plays, but if you need another option around that price point, Noah Clowney of the Nets is a very good option. Clowney has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and has scored double-digit points in 14 of his last 15. He typically turns in good non-scoring numbers as well, and he’s a solid contributor in a good matchup, since the Heat allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to power forwards in the NBA
If you go ultra-cheap at the position, Tristan da Silva has the top Plus/Minus projection of the options under $4,000, with Tidjane Salaun also producing solid bargain stats from his role in the Hornets’ second unit. Salaun started the season in the G League but has been productive since his promotion at the start of December.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Unsurprisingly, the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection on the entire slate comes from Nikola Jokic. Jokic has the highest salary on the entire slate, but if you can find enough value in other spots, he almost always delivers strong per-dollar production.
Jokic has over 50 DraftKings points in all 25 of his games this season and is averaging 68.2 DraftKings points per contest, producing at the astounding rate of 1.95 DraftKings points per minute. He had a jaw-dropping 85.75 DraftKings points on Sunday, producing 39 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists and leading the Nuggets past the Rockets for their fifth straight win. He fouled out in overtime but had enough production that he still was an awesome play to build around (as usual).
He’ll face the Magic for the first time this season, and it should be another good spot for him as he carries so much of the offense and posts incredible stats in every matchup.
Value
With Ayton out, Jaxson Hayes has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers and all players at all positions in both sets of projections. Hayes has played two games without Ayton this season, producing an average of 27.7 DraftKings points in 31 minutes per game.
Hayes has been solid in his limited minutes lately, and he had 12 points, nine rebounds, and 25.2 DraftKings points in 18 minutes against the Suns on Sunday. If he can build on that momentum in his extra minutes, Hayes has a high ceiling and a high floor in what should be a very favorable matchup against the Jazz.
Fast Break
Rockets big man Alperen Sengun has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games and eight of his last 11. Sengun is in a smash spot against the Pelicans, and he has the second-highest projection, behind only Jokic. In both sets of projections, his Plus/Minus projection is slightly higher than Jokic’s, but he doesn’t bring quite as much pure upside (although his salary is almost $3,000 lower).
Mark Williams has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the ShotQuality projections. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last nine games, and his Suns are in a good spot at home against the Warriors.
If you opt to go ultra-cheap at center, Day’Ron Sharpe of the Nets has the highest Plus/Minus projection of the options under $4,000 in both sets of projections. Sharpe has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and in five of his last six.
Pictured: Luka Doncic
Photo Credit: Imagn
