Friday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Luka Doncic finally came back down to Earth last game with a middling performance. Despite playing 40 minutes, Doncic finished with 18 points, 10 assists, seven rebounds, and only 46.75 DraftKings points. Not a horrible game, but at $13,000 on DraftKings and $12,500 on FanDuel, Doncic will need to perform much better to pay off his salary.
Doncic has the highest projected ceiling on DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA Model. He leads the league with 33.8 points per game and ranks third with a 33.9% usage rate. The more value that pops up throughout the day, the better Doncic looks. His salary is steep, but Doncic has over 70 DraftKings points in three of his four games, so expect a bounce-back tonight.
Value
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out with a knee injury, which will boost the usage and production of several Thunder players as Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team in points, assists, and steals. Last year with Gilgeous-Alexander off the floor, Isaiah Joe had a +2.65% usage rate and a +4.57 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Joe will be one of the main ball handlers in Gilgeous-Alexander’s absence alongside Josh Giddey, however, Joe is the preferred cheaper option on both sites tonight.
Joe has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. He has struggled shooting the ball thus far, with 34.2% from the field in his five games played. However, 76.3% of his field goal attempts come from downtown, which sets him up well in this spot, as the Warriors allowed the seventh-most 3-pointers made last season.
Fast Break
The Grizzlies are the only team in the league without a victory, as they sit at 0-5 to start the season. They are three-point road favorites against the Trail Blazers in a near must-win spot. With Ja Morant suspended, Marcus Smart has had to pick up the scoring void and point guard duties. In his first year with the Grizzlies, Smart is averaging a career-high 16 points per game while shooting 50% from the field. At $6,800 on both sites, Smart remains a strong option across the industry tonight.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Second to Doncic in league scoring is Cavaliers shooting guard Donovan Mitchell who is averaging a career-high 31.5 points per game. The status of Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen continues to be up in the air as both have played a combined one game this season. Mitchell is shooting 51.1% from the field and has made at least four 3-pointers in three of his four games played. His salary has jumped up to five figures on both sites, but Mitchell looks like a good pay-up option.
The Pacers are currently one of the best matchups in the league. They rank last in Defensive Rating and second in Pace. With a 33.8% usage rate, Mitchell should feast in this spot. Coming in around 10% projected ownership on both sites, Mitchell is going to be a contrarian tournament play, regardless if Garland or Allen suit up. Ideally, they both sit again.
Value
One of the most popular plays on the slate is Malcolm Brogdon, who is projected for over 40% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Scoot Henderson is out, which will likely move Brogdon into the starting lineup. Through his first five games, Brogdon has been incredibly consistent, scoring between 28 and 33 DraftKings points in each contest. He has a positive Plus/Minus in each game, as he is averaging 18.2 points per game while leading the team with a 29.2% usage rate.
The Grizzlies are playing at the fifth-fastest Pace and rank 22nd in Defensive Rating to start the season. Winners of two-straight games, the Trail Blazers will look to make it three-in-a-row despite being a three-point home underdog. Priced at $6,500 on both sites, the veteran point guard is projected to play a season-high 32 minutes and be an elite value option.
Fast Break
Ironically Tyler Herro‘s season opener struggles were the only game the Heat have won all season. Since that game, the Heat have lost four straight, but Herro 28.8 points per game while shooting 48.2% from the field and 45.9% from behind the arc. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those four games while averaging 44.4 DraftKings points per game. Herro is an under-the-radar option with the Heat fully healthy, but he is tied for the team-high in usage rate at 28.9%.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The weakest position on the slate is small forward yet again. Luckily Desmond Bane has small forward eligibility on FanDuel, making him the clear-cut stud option. Bane leads the team in scoring and usage with a career-high 24.6 points and a 29.1% usage rate per game. He is a scorer at all three levels, which makes him difficult to guard. Bane should have no troubles filling up the stat sheet and being the leading scorer again versus the Trail Blazers, despite their recent success.
Not only is Ja Morant still out for the Grizzlies, but they are a completely different looking team without Steven Adams, Tyus Jones, Dillon Brooks, and Brandon Clarke are all either gone or injured. Bane has really taken the team over, and with the Grizzlies desperate for a win, expect an aggressive Bane tonight. He has attempted nearly double-digit 3-pointers per game.
Value
Another value player who will benefit from the absence of Shai Gilegous-Alexander is small forward Jalen Williams. He has by far the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Williams will be impossible to ignore at his price point across the industry tonight. In 11 games without Gilgeous-Alexander last season, Williams averaged 21.5 points and 5.5 assists per game. Over that time, Williams shot 54.8% from the field and had a 24.3% usage rate.
In his second year in the league, Williams has continued to stuff the stat sheet averaging 16 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game. He has only missed one of his 20 free-throw attempts and will take on a much larger role tonight without Gilgeous-Alexander. Williams is projected to be the highest-owned player on both sites, making him a staple in cash games.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler is off to an atrocious start averaging only 16.5 points per game, which is the lowest since his 2013-14 season. He is shooting a career-low 35.7% from the field, but it has to come around some time, right? This is a fantastic matchup for Butler to get back on track, as the Wizards rank first in Pace and 28th in Defensive Rating. Butler looks much better on FanDuel, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating with 12 Pro Trends. It is only a matter of time until Butler is back.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Similar to Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo has had a relatively slow start to his 2023 campaign. He does have the second-highest usage rate per game, but Giannis is only scoring 24.5 points and 42.4 DraftKings points per game. Someone needs to inform Giannis to stop attempting 3-pointers as he is shooting a career-low 14.3% from long distance. Giannis is shooting 58% from inside the arc. His rebounding is also down to 8.5 per game after averaging double-digit for six straight seasons.
Due to his recent play and this on-paper difficult matchup against the Knicks, expect Giannis to come in with a reasonably low ownership. However, in his last three games against the Knicks, Giannis is averaging 29.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, and seven assists per game. The Knicks have been great at defending the paint, but Giannis will be their toughest test of the year.
Value
Rookie Toumani Camara has been a promising young prospect off the bench for the Trail Blazers. His playing time has ramped up over the last three games to over 25 minutes per game. Those added minutes have been beneficial to Camara, who has seven rebounds in each of his last two games and scored a season-high 12 points last Sunday. Priced under $4,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, Camara is a great salary saver to fit in the studs and has the upside to return a good value.
Projected to play 27 minutes in this spot, Camara is coming in with around 30% ownership on DraftKings. He is easier to fit there with small forward and power forward eligibility, whereas he is only power forward eligible on FanDuel. The Grizzlies have been one of the worst rebounding teams in the league thus far. Camara could flirt with another big game in this spot.
Fast Break
Most of the outcomes for Jaren Jackson Jr. come down to if he can stay out of foul trouble or not. Jackson Jr. is the highest-rated player on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings in our NBA Model. Priced at $8,500 on both sites, Jackson Jr. is the third-highest-owned player on FanDuel with his 82% Bargain Rating. He always has the upside to return a slate-winning tournament score, but he can also sink lineups with two fouls in the first three minutes. High risk, high reward.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
After back-to-back difficult matchups for Nikola Jokic, he will now get a matchup against Mavericks rookie Dereck Lively. The Mavericks had the worst rebounding percentage (47.1%) last season and failed to add anyone to their frontcourt besides Lively, who is undersized. Jokic has a double-double in each game thus far, along with two triple-doubles. He is dealing with some low-back pain but is probable for this game. Make sure he suits up, but Jokic looks great in this matchup.
The Mavericks frontcourt just allowed Nikola Vucevic to grab 20 rebounds in their last game. They will have a tough time keeping Jokic off the glass as he ranks fourth in Rebound Chances with 21.2 per game. With the Mavericks’ fast-paced system and the easy matchup, Jokic has a great chance to be the leading scorer on the slate at around 5% ownership.
Value
Xavier Tillman got into foul trouble last game and never did much after he came in as the Grizzlies were getting destroyed by the Jazz. The Grizzlies as a team look great in this spot, and Tillman is another player worth getting exposure to. With no Adams and Clarke in the frontcourt, Tillman has had to start and step up. Through the first five games, Tillman is averaging a career-high in both points and rebounds, despite shooting just 36.7% from the field. His sub-$6,000 salary looks enticing.
Tillman is projected to play close to 30 minutes in this spot while being projected for around 20% ownership. The Trail Blazers did add Deandre Ayton in the offseason, but they are still allowing 54.8 points per game in the paint this season, which is the second-highest in the league. It’s time for Tillman to boost his field goal percentage back up in this matchup.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo erupted for a 21-point, 14-rebound double-double last game, which included three assists, two steals, and two blocks. He accumulated over 50 DraftKings points and now gets an elite matchup against the Wizards frontcourt that currently ranks last in Rebounding Percentage at 44.6%. Adebayo has a great chance at back-to-back double-doubles and should have no trouble scoring in the interior, as the Wizards have also allowed 53 points per game in the paint this season.
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