The NBA continues a busy week of action with a four-game slate on DraftKings this Thursday. While some key players have already been ruled out, there are still plenty of exciting matchups and storylines to follow, along with some great value plays emerging as strong DFS fantasy basketball options. Of the eight teams on the floor this Thursday, the Sixers and the Kings are the only two playing for a second night in a row, and none of these eight teams play again on Friday, when NBA Cup Group Play continues. Be sure to check back for updates to our models as things change throughout the day, but coming into this Thursday, there are a few strong plays that stand out.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
James Harden has the top median and ceiling projection at point guard on Thursday night’s slate as he leads the Clippers to Orlando to take on the Magic. Harden has had to carry most of the offensive workload for the Clippers with Kawhi Leonard (foot/ankle) out for the last eight games.
Over those eight games, Harden has averaged 28.9 points, 8.4 assists, 7.3 rebounds, and 55.3 DraftKings points. The Clippers’ offense as a whole has been struggling with multiple other veterans like Bradley Beal (hip) and Derrick Jones Jr. (knee) going down with injury, but Harden keeps turning in big numbers and carrying the workload.
Harden turned back the clock with a 41-point triple-double for 87 DraftKings points last week in Dallas and followed that up with 60.8 DraftKings points in Boston and 48 DraftKings points in Philly. He will look to post another big total this Thursday in Orlando, since the Magic have been a top-10 matchup for point guards this season.
Value
With Paolo Banchero (groin) out on the other side of that matchup in Orlando, Anthony Black has been helping pick up some of the extra work on offense for the Magic. He has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all point guards on this slate, and he can also slide to shooting guard if that works better for roster construction.
Black has at least 17 points in three of his last four games, exceeding salary-based expectations with over 30 DraftKings points in each of those three contests. On Tuesday, he had a season-high 21 points in his 33 minutes, even though he moved back to the bench with Jalen Suggs back from a one-game absence.
Whether he starts or comes off the bench, the 21-year-old is getting enough playing time to be a solid value from under $5,000, with the potential to chip in 30+ DraftKings points for a very strong value return.
Fast Break
The game with the highest point total, according to our Vegas Dashboard, is the Kings at the Grizzlies, and Russell Westbrook always brings a very high ceiling to up-tempo contests. His salary has jumped to almost $8,000, but he still brings too high a ceiling to ignore for GPP lineups.
Without Giannis Antetokounmpo (groin), Ryan Rollins will carry more of the offense for the Bucks as they host the 76ers on Thursday night. Rollins had 24 points and 37.8 DraftKings points in the game that Giannis left early, and he brings a very good upside in his expanded role over the next week or two without Giannis. In the ShotQuality projections for Thursday, Rollins has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has a top-five Plus/Minus projection at both point guard and shooting guard in both sets of projections. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games while helping the Clippers fill in for absences from Beal, Jones, and Jordan Miller (hamstring).
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
In both the ShotQuality and FantasyLabs projections, Desmond Bane has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard. Bane has been solid with the Magic this season, averaging 16.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 30.8 DraftKings points per game, but he has stepped up even more with Banchero out.
In each of his last two games and in three of his last four, Bane has produced over 40 DraftKings points by scoring at least 22 points and chipping in his always-strong non-scoring numbers as well. On Tuesday in a win over the Warriors, he finished with 23 points, six rebounds, five assists, and five steals on his way to 47.5 DraftKings points.
He has a very high ceiling on Thursday as well, since he has the ability to produce in a wide variety of categories and can go off and carry your lineup from the shooting guard spot. Some of the other positions have more lineup-carrying options, but shooting guard is thin at the top with Bane standing out above the rest.
Value
In the first game that the Clippers were without Derrick Jones Jr., Kobe Sanders stepped into the lineup and had a solid showing. In his expanded role moving forward, he has great value potential at only $4,000 on this slate, and he has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard in both sets of projections.
Sanders is only averaging 7.0 points per game on the season, but he has been much more effective lately, scoring 11 points on Sunday and 17 points in his start on Monday. In Sunday’s game, he had six rebounds to help him get to 24 DraftKings points, but on Monday, he only had one rebound and one assist for 22.8 DraftKings points.
While he has a higher ceiling if his non-scoring numbers improve, he has enough upside to bring good value at only $4,000 as long as he keeps starting for the Clippers in their stop in Orlando on Thursday.
Fast Break
VJ Edgecombe and Quentin Grimes have both been solid producers for the Sixers at shooting guard, and the Bucks have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position this season. Edgecombe has over 30 DraftKings points in three straight and had an impressive 43 DraftKings points in Wednesday’s loss to the Raptors. Paul George (knee) sat out on Wednesday, and his return could squeeze their playing time, but both players still have good upside if minutes and usage are available.
With Giannis out, there will be plenty of usage available for the Bucks, and one player who pops in the projections as a value play from the midrange is Cole Anthony. Anthony has fallen below salary-based expectations in four of his last five games, but he has had good assist numbers. He could end up as a great value if he gets more scoring opportunities on Thursday.
With Ja Morant (calf) out and Ty Jerome (calf) and Scotty Pippen Jr. (toe) still unavailable, the Grizzlies are very short-handed in the backcourt (more values below). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could step into a more involved role and has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position in the FantasyLabs projections.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Keldon Johnson is one of the best plays on the slate since he brings a very high ceiling and comes at a very affordable salary of just $5,400. Normally, I wouldn’t include him in this section with such a low salary, but both forward spots come stuffed with so many value plays that this is the best spot for him to land.
Johnson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate in the ShotQuality projections and the second-highest in the FantasyLabs projections. He also has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all small forwards, even though he comes at such an affordable salary.
With Victor Wembanyama (calf) and Stephon Castle (hip) both out, Johnson should step into an expanded role. He’s coming off back-to-back games with over 30 DraftKings points against the Kings and Grizzlies, and he should be able to be around that level of production on a regular basis with more work available.
Johnson had 14 points and 12 rebounds in just 23 minutes against the Kings for 32 DraftKings points, and he followed that up with 33.2 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies with 18 points, seven rebounds, two assists, and two steals. He brings multi-category upside and potential as the Spurs host the Hawks on Thursday night.
Value
Without much depth at point guard, forward Vince Williams Jr. is getting a chance to show off his playmaking abilities for the Grizzlies. Williams has a great matchup against the Kings and brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward in both sets of projections on Thursday.
Williams got his second start of the season on Tuesday against Johnson and the Spurs. He finished with 14 points, nine assists, eight rebounds, and 38.8 DraftKings points in 30 minutes. He has that kind of multi-category upside with so much work potentially coming his way, and when he’s healthy, he has shown in the past that he can help pick up the slack when called upon.
The Kings are a good matchup for just about every position, so wherever he ends up, he should have a high ceiling. He’s officially eligible at both forward positions but will likely play more of a guard role given the other options available for Memphis on Thursday.
Fast Break
Franz Wagner actually has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at small forward and also has a positive Plus/Minus projection. He’ll be carrying more work without Banchero and brings lots of potential against the banged-up Clippers.
Without Giannis, Kyle Kuzma also has a high ceiling, since he could take on more scoring. He’s been very boom or bust this year, dropping 60 DraftKings points against the Hornets last Friday but then only 1.75 DraftKings points the next night against the Lakers.
Sanders and KCP (discussed above) are the best bargain options at small forward, with Nicolas Batum and John Konchar also getting enough time to be good cheap plays.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
With so many value plays and players stepping up into larger roles, your lineup will probably need a pay-up play who can also bring good value at the top of the salary structure. Jalen Johnson has been turning in elite numbers for the Hawks, and he has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all power forwards on Thursday.
Johnson has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games, even though his salary has climbed to almost $10,000. He has at least 50 DraftKings points in four straight, highlighted by his monster game against the Jazz, when he racked up 92 DraftKings points on 31 points, 18 rebounds, and 14 assists.
He’s a nightly threat for a triple-double and should flourish against the short-handed Spurs in a high-scoring environment.
Value
In the ShotQuality projections, Santi Aldama has the highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate. With all the turmoil and injuries in Memphis, he’s been one of the team’s steadiest producers this season and still comes at a relatively affordable $5,800.
Adlama has scored double-digit points in nine straight games and had a nice double-double last Saturday against the Cavaliers. On Tuesday, he had a little slower game against the Spurs, but he should be poised to bounce back on Thursday night in a favorable matchup with the Kings.
While his time in the frontcourt could be limited with Zach Edey back at center, he should still find plenty of time with Morant out and Jaren Jackson Jr. (ankle) doubtful. Aldama and Williams are both great values for Memphis and can be the core of a solid forward stack with good upside from the team with the highest implied team total on Thursday’s slate.
Fast Break
Without Giannis, Bobby Portis should be set up for more work for the Bucks. His production has been limited this season, but with so much time and usage available, he definitely brings good potential.
Tristan da Silva is in a similar situation while filling in for Paolo Banchero, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last four games, including the three that Banchero has missed. He’s lower risk than Portis, but he doesn’t have quite as high a ceiling either.
While he’s an expensive option to choose on this slate, it’s worth noting that Keegan Murray is expected to make his season debut on Thursday. He’s been sidelined by a thumb injury and will likely work into a very impactful spot in the Kings’ rotation at some point this season. He’s very high risk, though, since it will be his first game of the season.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The Kings ruled Domantas Sabonis out on Wednesday for the first game of their back-to-back, but he’s expected to play Thursday night against the Grizzlies. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all the centers on Thursday.
In his 11 games, he is averaging 17.2 points, 12.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 41 DraftKings points per game. He has posted back-to-back double-doubles, including a 34-point, 11-rebound game against the Timberwolves last Friday.
Sabonis is a steady, high-end contributor who can stuff the stat sheet and has a favorable matchup. If you have saved up at other spots and are looking to go big at center, he’ll be an ideal pay-up play as long as he’s ready for his usual minutes on the second night of the back-to-back.
Value
While Aldama has the highest Plus/Minus projections at center in both sets of projections, Kelly Olynyk is not far behind and comes at a bargain of $4,000.
Olynyk has only played five games with the Spurs this season, but with Wemby out now, he should be in a much more involved role in the near future. He had 24 and 24.75 DraftKings points in his last two games while playing just 18 and 19 minutes.
If he gets 20+ minutes against the Hawks, he should be able to be an outstanding value play, with the ceiling to really go off if he works his way into a more even timeshare with Luke Kornet, whose salary has already spiked.
Fast Break
Myles Turner has had a solid but fairly quiet start to his time in Milwaukee but will now have to step up with Giannis out for a while. He has averaged 12.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game and produced at least 35 DraftKings points in two of his last four games. The potential for big production is always there for Turner, especially in a good matchup with the Sixers. He’s riskier than Sabonis for sure but comes with a very high ceiling. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and the second-highest ceiling projection at the position in the ShotQuality projections.
As a mid-range option, Wendell Carter Jr. has had two strong performances in Orlando’s last two games with Banchero out. He posted 36 DraftKings points on 15 points against the Rockets on Sunday and then was even better on Tuesday with 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 38.5 DraftKings points against the Warriors.
Pictured: Santi Aldama
Photo Credit: Imagn
