The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
George Kirby ($8,800) Seattle Mariners (-155) vs. Texas Rangers
The good news for the Mariners pitching staff is that they’re back home in Seattle, the best pitcher’s park in baseball. That’s following a series in Sacramento, one of the most difficult parks for pitchers in all of baseball.
Like most of Seattle’s staff, Kirby’s ERA is much better at home than on the road. His 4.05 mark at home is nearly a full run better than his 4.96 ERA on the road. While the 4.05 isn’t exactly elite, his (park-adjusted) ERA predictors are all in the mid-threes, so he’s likely to perform better moving forward. Particularly at home, where he should be better than his park neutral factors.
He also brings a solid 25% strikeout rate into this one, where the Rangers 3.5-run total is nearly a full run lower than any other team on the slate. That makes him a pretty obvious top choice, and he leads the slate in median and ceiling projection.
He also comes with a massive 70%+ ownership projection, but that’s to be expected on a three-game slate. The only compelling reason to fade him is ownership, but that’s not a bad reason in large-field GPPs.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Ryan Pepiot ($8,300) Tampa Bay Rays (-105) at New York Yankees
Pepiot slots just ahead of Kirby in Pts/Sal projection on Thursday’s afternoon slate, though he also comes with similarly massive ownership projections. He’s probably the second-best option on paper, with a 3.42 ERA and 24.3% strikeout rate on the season.
Those numbers compare favorably to Kirby’s, though theoretically he’s facing a more difficult matchup. However, Yankees team-level stats are somewhat misleading for the time being, since star hitter Aaron Judge is on the injured list. Without Judge, the Yankees are still a solid offense, but not necessarily one we have to avoid.
Particularly on such a small slate. Given the lack of other options, Pepiot is well worth the risk. That is, if the weather holds out. This slate has a chance to turn into a two-game contest with some tough conditions in New York. Be sure to monitor our free Weather Report as we get close to game time.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Kumar Rocker ($7,300) Texas Rangers (+129) at Seattle Mariners
The former number three overall pick hasn’t really lived up to his potential this season, with a disappointing 5.73 ERA through 12 appearances. However, he obviously has talent far beyond that and has turned in some strong performances recently after an awful start to the season.
Rocker has allowed just three runs in 10.1 innings pitched since the All-Star Break, to go along with ten strikeouts. Those are solid numbers — especially relative to his price point — that give hope to a Hunter Brown-esque second-half breakout.
Today is as good of a time as any to bet on that breakout, since he gets to pitch at T-Mobile Field. While Seattle is a somewhat challenging opponent, the elite park factor more than outweighs that in his favor. Rocker would be a bit too thin for a full-sized slate, but with ownership condensing around Kirby and Pepiot he’s a solid GPP pivot.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds 5.4-run implied total is a full run clear of any other offense on the slate, making them the obvious top stack on the small slate. Naturally, that will also come with correspondingly high ownership, so the question is more how to build around Cincinnati rather than if you should roster them.
The solid team total for the Reds is based on a combination of the excellent Park Factor at home and the matchup. They’re facing new Brave Carlos Carrasco ($6,000), recently acquired from the Yankees for cash considerations after posting a 5.91 ERA in 32 innings in pinstripes.
I’d avoid builds that include both the Reds stack and the two most popular pitchers — Kirby and Pepiot — or go with Reds bats further down their lineup if you can’t avoid them. Staying unique on a small slate is extremely important, and it’s hard to do with the top five Reds hitters.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Sean Murphy C ($6,300) Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
Andrew Abott ($9,300) is the only left-handed starter on the slate, so naturally I turned to PlateIQ to see which opposing hitters do well against southpaws:
Murphy’s ISO mark jumped off the page immediately, especially considering this game is being played in the best home run park in baseball. The .300 number in the image above is from the last two seasons combined, and he’s been even better this year at .368.
The top of the Braves lineup in general is fairly solid against lefties, so they’re an interesting alternate stack.
Trent Grisham OF ($4,000) New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Ryan Pepiot)
I listed Grisham in this space yesterday as a solid value, leading off for a Yankees team with a strong team total. He paid us off with 18 points on DraftKings, thanks to a solo home run and a walk.
That thesis remains the case today, as New York’s 4.4-run team total is second best on the slate and Grisham is inexplicably cheaper than he was yesterday. He also comes with the added benefit of providing massive leverage against the second-most popular pitcher on the slate, Pepiot.
Any lineups that fade either Kirby or Pepiot should include at least one opposing hitter, with Grisham an obvious choice on the Yankees side.
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Pictured: George Kirby
Photo Credit: Getty Images
