The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob deGrom ($10,300) Texas Rangers (-138) at Los Angeles Angels
I’ve been a bit skeptical of the career resurgence of deGrom, who has now thrown 100 innings in a season for the first time since 2019 at age 37. However, at a certain point his comeback had become undeniable.
Through those roughly 100 innings, deGrom has a 2.13 ERA, with nine wins in his 17 starts. His underlying ERA metrics are somewhat worse than that but still very solid, and he’s averaging just over 21 DraftKings points per game.
The one negative is that his strikeout rate is noticeably lower than it has been in years past. deGrom’s career K% is a bit over 30%, while he’s checking in at 25.9% this year. It’s probably not a coincidence that his average fastball velocity is the lowest it’s been since 2019, as he’s likely taking something off his heater in order to stay healthy.
Still, we can work with that 25% mark, especially considering the opponent. The Angels strike out at the second-highest rate in the majors against righties, so deGrom is still probably the favorite to lead the slate in punchouts.
Paired with the Angels’ 3.6-run team total, it’s easy to see how deGrom leads the slate in median and ceiling projection.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Richard Fitts ($6,200) Boston Red Sox (-235) vs. Colorado Rockies
The most noteworthy thing about Fitts today is his opponent. He gets the privilege of taking on the Rockies, the worst offense in baseball by a wide margin. Not only that, but they’re away from their offense-boosting home park of Coors Field.
Not only does Colorado have the worst wRC+ against righties in baseball, but they’re also the only team to strike out at a higher clip than the Angels. That’s even more notable since the thin air in Colorado typically lowers strikeout rates — less dense air reduces the spin rate of pitches, limiting the movement on breaking balls. The Rockies’ splits bear this out, as their strikeout rate on the road is 28.4%, but “just” 24.3% at home.
That’s obviously a major boost to Fitts, who comes into the game with a pedestrian 4.50 ERA and 18.9% strikeout rate. He misses enough bats — his swinging strike rate is 11.9% — that he’s due for some positive strikeout regression anyway, but a date with the Rockies should help expedite the process.
There might not be any other matchup I’d roster Fitts in, but he’s a great value at $6,200 against the Rockies. He’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projection and has a 95% Bargain Rating.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Cristopher Sanchez ($8,800) Philadelphia Phillies (-137) at San Francisco Giants
While our current ownership projections have Sanchez as the second most popular pitcher, his ownership is roughly half that of deGrom’s. That means any pivot away from the Rangers ace is likely to be relatively contrarian, with a relatively tightly grouped second tier of arms.
Sanchez also brings nearly as much upside as deGrom at a much cheaper price tag. He has a 26.2% strikeout rate and a 2.68 ERA on the season, both numbers very similar to deGrom’s. His 20.1 PPG average is also only slightly below his more expensive counterparts.
Crucially, he also has a solid matchup. The Giants are a slightly above-average offense against right-handed pitching but rank bottom five in both wRC+ and strikeout rate against lefties like Sanchez. Those are among the most extreme splits in the league, so we should always be on the lookout for opportunities to roster southpaws against them.
His Vegas data is also almost identical to deGrom’s, making it surprising that we’re getting a steep discount in both ownership and salary tonight. He’s an elite GPP option and could even be paired with deGrom in lineups that save salary on hitters.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
One way to save money on bats is by stacking the Red Sox. Their first five hitters are priced at just $3,600 per player on average, an absurd discount considering their slate-leading 5.9 run total.
This is probably the most obvious top stack we’ve had all season, with Boston’s team total coming in nearly a full run higher than any other team while simultaneously priced below nearly every other lineup.
Of course, much of that hinges on Nate Eaton actually being the leadoff hitter. While he’s occupied that role in three of Boston’s last four games, he has just 21 plate appearances on the season and hasn’t locked down a starting role.
Make sure to keep an eye on our lineups page this afternoon, as it wouldn’t shock me if Boston pivoted from this order at a spot or two. They’ll still likely be fairly cheap, but someone like Jarren Duran ($4,400) moving up a few spots would make them slightly less valuable.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Elly De La Cruz SS ($5,900) Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins (Janson Junk)
Outside of the Red Sox, the team I’m most interested in on the slate is probably the Reds. They’re at home in the best home run park in baseball, taking on Janson Junk ($6,000), a starter/reliever with a 4.91 ERA when forced into starting duty.
Crucially, the weather in Cincinnati also boosts home runs a further 9.6% per Weather Edge, so there’s big upside for Reds bats.
Unfortunately, there aren’t too many good ones to choose from — with a notable exception that’s obvious in PlateIQ:
Plus, De La Cruz fits easily around Red Sox stacks, which provide the salary relief to make his price tag easy to accommodate.
Jonathan India 2B ($3,400) Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Andrew Heaney)
While Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City doesn’t boost home runs nearly as much as Great American Ball Park, it’s a top-five overall stadium for offense. Like in Cincinnati, the weather is also very friendly for bats, making this another game worth targeting.
The Royals rank 26th in overall wRC+ against lefties, so I’m not necessarily advocating a full stack. However, India and, to a lesser extent, Bobby Witt SS ($5,400) are on the strong side of their splits, so a mini-stack of those two makes some sense in a winnable matchup.
Nathan Lukes OF ($3,100) Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox (Sean Burke)
Toronto also has a team total of right around five runs, as they draw a very winnable matchup against Chicago’s Sean Burke ($5,500). Burke comes into the game with a 4.03 ERA but his xERA is a full run higher, so some regression could be coming.
That makes Lukes entirely too cheap for his leadoff role in the lineup. The bats behind him come with a steep enough price tag that a full stack is hard, but a small stack with him as the centerpiece is also a solid option — especially in lineups that fade deGrom.
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Pictured: Jacob deGrom
Photo Credit: Getty Images
