The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:30 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kyrie Irving has not had many huge games as a member of the Boston Celtics, but he has been a steady producer, posting a Consistency Rating of 85 percent on FanDuel over his past 14 games. The Celtics have the second-highest implied team total of the day at 110.25 points against the Philadelphia 76ers, but Kyrie has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.90 on FanDuel. That likely overstates how tough of a matchup this actually is: Joel Embiid has already been ruled out of today’s contest, and Philly was the worst defensive team in the league last season with Embiid off the court. Irving is a stronger value today on FanDuel, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Value
Jamal Murray disappointed in his last game against the Utah Jazz, but his minutes continue to trend in the right direction. He followed up a 37-minute performance with 29 minutes in a game that turned into a blowout, and he gets a much easier matchup today against the Chicago Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.62 on FanDuel. The Nuggets’ implied team total of 110 points ranks third on the slate.
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder remains one of the cheapest ways to buy a large usage rate. His usage projection of 29.2 percent trails only Irving’s and Damian Lillard’s at the position, and he has an excellent matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers. So far this season, only two teams have allowed a higher average Plus/Minus to opposing PGs on FanDuel:
He leads all PGs with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
With Blake Griffin joining Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari on the sidelines, someone on the Clippers is going to have to pick up the slack on offense. One candidate for a larger role is Austin Rivers, who has seen a usage increase of 5.5 percent with all three players off the court this season:
Shooting Guard
Stud
Lou Williams has been a major fantasy contributor recently:
His role only figures to get larger given the injury to Griffin: He’s seen a usage increase of 5.8 percent and averaged more than 41 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Griffin, Gallinari, and Beverley off the court this season:
Williams has a tough matchup today against the Utah Jazz, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.57, and the Clippers have the lowest implied team total of the day at 98.5 points. But he might be too good of a value to pass up on DraftKings, where his $7,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Value
Gary Harris has been as steady as they come at the SG position recently, posting a Consistency Rating of 90 percent over the past month. He continues to play heavy minutes since returning from injury, seeing at least 30 minutes of court time in all six games, and he has a solid matchup today against the Chicago Bulls. He’s a slightly better value on DraftKings (86 percent Bargain Rating).
Fast Break
Kent Bazemore has seen his salary decrease by $400 on FanDuel over his last 10 games, despite the fact that he’s put up performances of 45.5, 45.3, and 36.4 fantasy points during that stretch. Unfortunately, he typically follows up those performances with a clunker, but it goes to show you the ceiling that he has for guaranteed prize pools when things break his way. Bazemore has an excellent matchup today with the Cleveland Cavaliers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.13 on FanDuel.
None of the 76ers’ regulars for has seen a bigger spike in production with Embiid off the court this season than J.J. Redick, averaging 34.47 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
Given that TJ McConnell is also out for tonight’s contest, Redick should see all the minutes he can handle, albeit in a tough matchup against the Boston Celtics.
Small Forward
Studs
SF is loaded for such a small slate, featuring the two priciest players on FanDuel and three priciest on DraftKings. Deciding between the studs at the top of the position will be a difficult task.
Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James are coming off monster performances in limited minutes in their previous outings. Giannis was a big part of the reason that the Bucks blew the doors off the Sacramento Kings, posting a usage rate of 44.9 percent and six combined blocks + steals en route to 61.50 FanDuel points in just 26 minutes of action. While his overall production might be reduced due to the addition of Eric Bledsoe, this guy still has quite possibly the highest ceiling in daily fantasy basketball at the moment: No one on the slate is projected for a higher usage rate, and only one player is projected to see more court time.
LeBron meanwhile was ejected in his last game, much to the delight of professional troll Enes Kanter. Still, he posted 45 fantasy points in the first half off that contest and managed to finished with over 60 for the game, which isn’t entirely surprising given his slate-high average of 1.53 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has an excellent matchup today with the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.25 on FanDuel. As usual, it’s tough to overstate the safety that LeBron offers for cash games. He has a Consistency Rating of 90 percent over the past year.
Value
Sam Dekker is another candidate to see an increased role for the Clippers today. He was a solid contributor when given the chance for the Rockets last season. He has historically managed to exceed expectations when projected for at least 22 minutes of playing time:
He’s expected to be a chalky option today, with a projected ownership of 26-30 percent on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Joe Ingles is underpriced on DraftKings today (93 percent Bargain Rating). He should continue to play big minutes for the Jazz given the injury to Joe Johnson.
Virtually all of the 76ers see an increase in usage with Embiid off the court, and Robert Covington is no exception. His usage bump of 2.7 percent is the second-largest among 76ers regulars, and he’s averaged 33.77 FanDuel points per 36 minutes. He has one of the worst matchups of the day regardless of position against the Celtics (-3.26 Opponent Plus/Minus), but he offers tons of upside with his potential for increased offense and his proclivity for steals.
Power Forward
Stud
Ben Simmons is PF eligible on FanDuel and PG/SF eligible on DraftKings, but he looks like one of the top options on the slate regardless of where he winds up in your lineup. Unsurprisingly, Simmons has smashed with Embiid off the court this season:
He’s an extremely well-rounded player, with the capability of filling up all areas of the box score. He’s even a massive contributor on the defensive end of the court: His average of 2.95 steals + blocks trails on Antetokounmpo’s on today’s slate. He leads the slate with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel and offers the same combination of upside and safety as LeBron and Giannis at a pretty significant discount.
Values
It looked like John Collins would go back to being an afterthought with Luke Babbitt returning to the starting lineup, but he’s squarely back on the DFS radar given the injury to Dewayne Dedmon. Collins has been productive this season when given the chance to play center, averaging over 37 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Dedmon off the court:
The Cavaliers have been much better recently, but they still rank 25th on the season in defensive efficiency and rank in the bottom half of the league in rebounding.
Have I mentioned that the 76ers will be without Embiid tonight? Dario Saric is yet another option who will likely see some additional value in his stead, and Saric has been pretty darn good in his own right recently:
Saric averaged more than 37 DraftKings points per 36 minutes last season in games without Embiid.
Fast Break
Juan Hernangomez is coming of a season-high 28 minutes in his last game and could see an increased role again with Wilson Chandler still sidelined. He likely wont close the game – Will Barton closed the second half on Tuesday when the game was still competitive – but he should see somewhere in the vicinity of 24-28 minutes regardless. Given his average of 0.79 fantasy points per minute over the past month, he doesn’t need to play much to pay off his $3,700 salary on DraftKings.
Montrezl Harrell has always been a productive player on a per-minute basis and this season has been no exception: His average of 1.16 fantasy points per minute trails only Simmons’ among PFs on FanDuel. He should get a chance to play more minutes with Griffin injured, which makes him an intriguing GPP target against the Utah Jazz.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is one of the most gifted young big men in the game, and that talent is reflected in his average of 1.43 fantasy points per minute over the past month. Unfortunately, Jokic doesn’t always seem willing to put that talent on display, with his usage rate fluctuating wildly from game to game. He remains an elite target for GPPs – no one at the center position can match his ceiling on today’s slate – but his volatility makes him tough to trust for cash games.
Value
Richaun Holmes will likely draw the start at center for the Philadelphia 76ers, although how many minutes he ultimately plays is questionable. Still, he’s priced at only $3,500 on FanDuel and has averaged 0.94 fantasy points per minute this season; he shouldn’t need to play much to pay off his salary. His Bargain Rating of 95 percent on FanDuel leads the position on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic has one of the top matchups of the day regardless of position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.13 on DraftKings against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have struggled mightily on the glass this season, ranking dead last in rebound percentage, while the Trail Blazers currently rank first in that department. That’s a massive mismatch in an area of the game that can occasionally fly under the radar, giving Nurkic a lot of appeal at a projected ownership of just 5-8 percent on DraftKings.
Kevin Love is coming off quite possibly his best game of the season, scoring 56.75 fantasy points in just 25.5 minutes. That’s obviously a bit of an outlier – his 48.4 percent usage rate was more than 20 points higher than his season average – but he does have an exploitable matchup today against the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.14 on DraftKings.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
