Wide receivers are the backbone of your NFL DFS lineups. It’s a spot where you’ll need massive production if you’re going to take down a tournament, but it’s also a spot where you can save money on occasion. Some of the best values in a given week are likely to be found at the receiver position.
In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
As with basically every position this week, the focus at receiver starts with the game between the Lions and Cardinals. It leads the slate with a 54.5-point total, and no other game is particularly close. The Lions are also listed as 5.5-point road favorites, giving them a slate-best 30.0 implied team total.
It’s enough to push St. Brown to the top of the WR charts for Week 5. St. Brown has already been excellent this season, ranking third at wide receiver in fantasy points. His production has dipped slightly over the past two weeks, but his usage remains among the best in football. He has a 30% target share for a dynamic offense, giving him plenty of upside on a weekly basis.
St. Brown had 28.7 and 38.2 DraftKings points in his first two contests this season, and that’s the type of upside he brings to the table vs. Arizona. They’re 30th in pass defense EPA through four weeks, and they’ve allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Add it all up, and St. Brown has the top raw projections at the position. He’s even projected for more fantasy points than Jaxon Smith-Njigba, despite checking in at nearly $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings.
Michael Wilson ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
Wilson has started to cement his status as the Cardinals’ top wide receiver. His role was a bit uncertain at the beginning of the year. He took off down the stretch last season, but that was primarily with Marvin Harrison Jr. out of the lineup. Harrison still has the pedigree – he was the No. 4 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft – so he could have theoretically cut into his workload this season.
However, Wilson has racked up 30 targets over the past two games. He has an elite 36% target share in those contests, to go along with 52% of the team’s air yards and 50% of their end zone targets. Overall, he’s been one of the busiest receivers in football.
Wilson responded with 25.9 DraftKings points in Week 3 before slipping to “just 16.5 DraftKings points last week vs. the Giants. He remains far too cheap across the industry, especially in this matchup vs. the Lions. Their secondary has been decimated by injuries this season, and they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers.
Malik Washington ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
Washington figures to be the chalk value receiver this week. He has pretty quietly been a target monster for the Dolphins this season. He has a 29% target share through four weeks, and he’s had a target share of at least 29% in three contests.
The Dolphins’ offense remains one of the worst in football, which does limit Washington’s ceiling. However, his target share also gives him a very safe floor for his price tag. He’s racked up at least 11.1 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, good for a positive Plus/Minus in each.
Washington draws a matchup vs. the Bengals in Week 5. While their defense has been improved this season, they’re still not very intimidating. They’re 19th in EPA per pass defensively, and they’re 22nd in yards allowed.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)
Smith-Njigba finally put together a mortal fantasy performance in Week 4. After cruising for at least 122 and a touchdown in three games to start the year – with multiple touchdowns in two of them – JSN slipped to just five catches for 76 scoreless yards vs. the Chargers. He saw just six targets in that contest after reaching at least 11 in the previous contests.
Of course, there’s no real cause for concern. JSN still had a 32% target share last week; the Seahawks just simply didn’t have to throw that much. Sam Darnold attempted just 22 passes, with the team doing most of their damage on the ground.
They should have to crank the passing volume back up vs. the 49ers. San Francisco ranks first in EPA per play offensively, and they’re second in the league in points per game. Seattle is going to have to do more to keep up with them, which should result in a heavy dose of JSN.
Smith-Njigba takes a backseat to St. Brown on DraftKings, but both guys are viable together on FanDuel. He ranks fourth in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus, and he’s projected for the most ownership at the position.
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Garrett Wilson ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Wilson was one of the bigger disappointments at receiver last week, finishing with just three catches for 27 yards. However, the problems were more with the Jets’ offense than Wilson specifically. They somehow managed just 32 plays, compared to 89 for the Bears. They barely had the ball, and the entire offense suffered because of it.
The Jets should have much more of the ball this week vs. the Browns. They’re listed as 2.5-point home favorites, and before Week 4, they had run at least 66 plays in each of their first three games.
Wilson also remains the biggest name in town for the Jets. He has a 29% target share for the year, and his role only figures to grow with Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall out of the lineup. He owns the top optimal lineup rate at the position in Sim Labs.
Romeo Doubs ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
The Patriots’ offense finally came to life in Week 4. They had been one of the biggest disappointments in football to start the year, with Drake Maye looking nothing like the guy who finished second in MVP voting last year. The loss of A.J. Brown in the season opener was a big blow, and it clearly took them some time to recover.
Doubs also got off to a slow start this season, but he’s coming off his best game with his new team. He racked up nine targets vs. the Bills, resulting in six catches, 58 yards, and two scores. His target share sat at 27% in that outing, eclipsing his previous Patriots’ high of 21%.
Hopefully, last week served as a coming out party for the entire offense. If that’s the case – and Doubs can maintain a 25%+ target share – he’s underpriced across the industry. His optimal lineup ranks fifth at receiver, and it eclipses his projected ownership by +3.8%.
Nico Collins ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Collins returned to the Texans’ lineup in Week 4 and picked up basically where he left off. He had seven catches, 118 yards, and two touchdowns vs. the Cowboys, finishing with 33.8 DraftKings points. Collins had 21.2 DraftKings points in his only other game this season, so he’s off to an excellent start.
The Texans enter Week 5 desperate for a win. They’ve lost each of their first four games, and the odds of making the playoffs after an 0-4 start are slim. It becomes nearly impossible if you fall to 0-5, so they should be focused and motivated to take care of business vs. the Titans. It’s a great matchup, with Tennessee ranking just 27th in pass defense EPA.
Collins has appeal across the industry, but he’s a particularly strong play on FanDuel. His price tag comes with a 99% Bargain Rating, and he ranks fourth in FanDuel optimal lineup rate.
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Justin Jefferson ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
The Vikings are currently sitting at 4-0, but it’s no thanks to their offense. They’ve been poor to start the season, though there have been some mitigating circumstances. Kyler Murray suffered a concussion in Week 1 and missed Week 2, while Jefferson picked up an injury in Week 3 and missed last week’s contest. Jefferson is set to return to the lineup this week, and while Jordan Mason remains on IR, the offense is basically back to full strength.
Before last year, Jefferson was on a historic pace at receiver. He racked up 7,432 receiving yards and 40 touchdowns across his first five seasons. He took a step back last year amid the Vikings’ awful QB situation, but he remains one of the best receivers in the league.
Jefferson stands out as an excellent buy-low target against the Saints. Their defense has been horrendous to start the year, ranking 28th in pass defense EPA. Jefferson shouldn’t command the same ownership as some of the top receivers on this slate, but he has arguably just as much upside.
Jaylen Waddle ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
Waddle has been a bit hit-or-miss as the Broncos’ No. 1 WR. His target shares have been all over the place: 12%, 36%, 25%, and 16% through the first four weeks. As a result, he’s averaged just 9.0 fantasy points per game, putting him 33rd among wide receivers.
That said, his production is at least trending up. He had 24.8 DraftKings points back in Week 2, and he scored his first touchdown last week. There are no real concerns about Waddle’s talent, so it comes down to how often Bo Nix can get him the ball.
The Broncos draw a matchup vs. the Chargers this week, who are still looking for their first win this season. Their defense hasn’t really been the issue, but Denver still has some upside. They’re listed as 3.5-point road favorites, and the game has a 41.5-point total. Waddle grades out as one of the more undervalued options at the position per Sim Labs.
Carnell Tate ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
Tate is a player who appears to be on the rise. He’s coming off his best game as a professional last week, posting a WR11 finish with 17.0 fantasy points.
His target share increased to a massive 44% in that outing, and he’s up to 30% overall for the year. The only thing holding him back is that he’s catching passes in one of the worst offenses in football.
If Tate can maintain elite usage, he’s going to pop for the occasional big game. Maybe that won’t happen this week vs. the Texans, but he still stands out as underpriced for his upside.
KC Concepcion ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
Concepcion is another intriguing rookie receiver. All of a sudden, the Browns’ offense appears to have some juice. They racked up 260 passing yards and 27 points last week vs. the Steelers, and the overall situation isn’t nearly as dismal as we thought it could be.
Concepcion and fellow rookie Denzel Boston have done most of the damage at receiver. While Boston is the clear big-play threat, Concepcion is getting plenty of designed looks on a weekly basis. He leads the team with a 23% target share, and he’s also handled 5% of the team’s rush attempts.
Concepcion posted a perfect 100% route participation in Week 4, while his snap share hit a season-high 92%. His involvement should only continue to increase, making him a solid value target at just $4,200. He might not have the most upside, but he actually ranks second at receiver in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Pictured: Michael Wilson
Photo Credit: Imagn
