Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks
Trey McBride ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
McBride’s hiatus from the top spot at the TE rankings lasted all of one week. The competition between him and Brock Bowers will be stiff all year, with matchups largely dictating which one has the upper hand.
McBride clearly has the edge in Week 5. He’s taking on the Lions in what is expected to be the game of the week for fantasy purposes. The total sits at 54.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate by a wide margin. No other game is above 46.5, so the gap between this game and the rest on the main slate is massive.
McBride is also still a really good fantasy TE. He’s had double-digit targets in all four games this season, and his 31% target share is tied for the top mark at the position.
McBride ultimately owns the top raw projections at tight end, despite Bowers being more expensive on this slate. More surprisingly, McBride grades out as the top overall value, ranking first in projected Plus/Minus. Paying up at tight end is tough for DraftKings cash games, but it could be the right move this week.
Isaiah Likely ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
The other tight end with a 31% target share this season? That would be Likely. He’s coming off a 12-target performance last week vs. the Cardinals, and he’s had at least eight targets in three of four games. The lone exception was the Week 3 game played against the Titans in a nor’easter.
The Giants might have to take to the air a bit more than usual this week. They’ve been in full control of their last two contests, but they’re listed as four-point underdogs vs. the Commanders.
If the Giants do have to take to the air more, Likely could be poised for a big day. Washington is merely 20th in EPA per pass defensively, and they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs.
Likely ultimately ranks third at the position in projected Plus/Minus and Sim Labs optimal lineup rate. He’s the top option if you’re not spending up for one of the top guys at tight end.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks
George Kittle ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Kittle continues to provide excellent value at tight end while providing a slight discount compared to Bowers and McBride. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, scoring at least 17.0 DraftKings points in each.
Kittle has done that primarily through touchdowns. He has four across his past three games, which has made up for any sort of target deficiencies. Kittle has also been the rare big-play threat at tight end, averaging 15.3 yards per reception so far this season.
The 49ers could be forced to lean a little heavier on Kittle this week. They’ve been in cruise control for much of the season, but they probably won’t have that luxury vs. the Seahawks. Kittle was awesome in his first game vs. the Seahawks last year, catching four passes for 25 yards and a score on just 21 snaps before getting injured. He trails only McBride in terms of optimal lineup rate, but he’s projected for roughly half the ownership.
Brock Bowers ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Bowers followed up his monster debut in Week 3 with another strong showing in Week 4. He was facing a tougher defense, but he still racked up 11 targets, six receptions, 86 yards, and a score. He’s ultimately finished as a top-three scorer at the position in both games this season.
Bowers’ target share did dip from 41% in his first outing to just 23% vs. the Chiefs. That’s still a really good figure, and it’s probably closer to his floor moving forward. He also still managed 33% of the team’s air yards and 50% of their end-zone targets, so his utilization remains arguably the best in football at tight end.
Bowers draws a matchup vs. the Raiders this week, which is the only thing keeping him behind McBride in the rankings. It’s a significantly tougher spot, with the Patriots ranking fifth in EPA per pass defensively. Still, he has arguably the highest ceiling at the position.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside
Orande Gadsden ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel)
Gadsden continues to stand out as an undervalued option per Sim Labs. He is the only healthy body left at tight end for the Chargers, and that finally resulted in some tangible production last week. He had a 23% target share vs. the Seahawks, resulting in a positive Plus/Minus for the second time in three games.
There’s still some room for growth for Gadsden moving forward. He had just a 65% route participation vs. Seattle, which was down from his mark in Week 3. If he can see a few more opportunities vs. the Broncos, he has some legit sleeper appeal.
Tucker Kraft ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
Kraft didn’t look remotely like the same player he was last year through the first three weeks. However, he took a clear step forward last week. His target share hit a season-high 23%, and he scored his first touchdown of the season. He ultimately finished with 13.5 fantasy points, making him the fifth-highest scorer at the position.
That’s more what we expected from Kraft before the start of the year. He was the No. 1 TE in fantasy before suffering an injury last year, averaging 61.1 receiving yards per game with six total touchdowns through eight games. If he can get back to that level, he stands out as a nice value.
Kraft ultimately looks like one of the more undervalued options at tight end per Sim Labs. He’s projected for just 5.8% ownership, while his optimal lineup rate is closer to 7.5%. That’s the third-largest discrepancy on DraftKings, trailing only Likely and Kittle.
Kenyon Sadiq ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)
The Jets had almost no opportunities to get anything going last week. They ran just 32 plays compared to 89 for the Bears, so they had almost none of the ball. They should have more opportunities this week by default, especially since they’re listed as favorites vs. the Browns.
Sadiq should be a big part of the equation. The Jets are still down both Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell, leaving Sadiq as the clear-cut No. 2 option in the team’s passing attack. His target share eclipsed 20% for the second consecutive game in Week 4, and with more offensive volume overall, Sadiq has plenty of upside. He racked up 20.0 fantasy points vs. the Lions two weeks ago, making him the fourth-highest scorer at tight end.
Pictured: Trey McBride
Photo Credit: Imagn
